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Awards markets are different from any other in sports betting, because voters decide who wins in this arena. If we’re going to make bets in these markets, it’s in our best interest to look back at who voters have voted for and why. That holds true for the Super Bowl MVP.

 

Super Bowl MVPs by Position

 

Position Total Last 10 Last Winner
Quarterback 32 6 Patrick Mahomes, 2022
Running Back 7 None Terrell Davis, 1997
Wide Receiver 8 2 Cooper Kupp, 2021
Tight Ends None None None
Offensive Linemen None None None
Defensive Linemen 4* 1 Von Miller, 2015
Linebackers 3 1 Malcolm Smith, 2013
Cornerbacks 1 None Larry Brown, 1995
Safeties 2 None Dexter Jackson, 2002
Kick Returner 1 None Desmond Howard, 1996

 

*Two defensive linemen for the Cowboys were named MVP in Super Bowl XII (12). Additionally, Von Miller was primarily a pass rusher, so he was treated as a defensive lineman for these purposes.

 

Key Takeaways 

  • The regular-season MVP is primarily a quarterback award. The Super Bowl MVP still favors the position, but other players have a much better shot in the big game.
  • Quarterbacks can win this award with a middling statistical performance.
  • There have been a number of instances where a quarterback that orchestrated a late, game-winning drive won the MVP.
  • A running back hasn’t won in 25 years.
  • Two of the last five winners were wide receivers.
  • When wide receivers win, they tend to account for an enormous portion of the team’s passing-game production.
  • Five wide receivers have won since 2000. The game total in four of those contests was 45 points or less.
  • A tight end has never won this award, but two of the best ever will be featured in this matchup.
  • When defenders win, splash plays (sacks, turnovers, and/or defensive touchdowns) drive those outcomes.
  • No cornerback or safety has won in 20 years.
  • One player on a losing team has won the Super Bowl MVP. If Jalen Hurts didn’t win last season, the chances of a player on the losing team winning again are near zero.

 

The Quarterbacks

 

Patrick Mahomes (+120 to +135 FanDuel, Caesars)

Mahomes has already won two of these, including last year’s. Heading into that contest, he was +110 to +130, so he’s a slightly better value this year. Kansas City’s moneyline is currently +105, making his MVP odds an imperfect but viable consideration.

 

Brock Purdy (+200 to +225 DraftKings)

Many quarterbacks have benefited from elite supporting casts, but none of them have been doubted more frequently than Purdy. I’d suggest that the truth about who Purdy is as a player is in between his MVP-caliber production and the opinions of his detractors. His current +225 MVP price is pretty good for a quarterback on the team that’s actually favored in this contest. Additionally, Purdy had a strong enough stat line to essentially be Player of the Game in 10 of San Francisco’s 12 regular-season wins.

 

Value Options

 

Travis Kelce (+1100 to +1700 FanDuel)

Kelce is still the main vein in Kansas City’s passing attack. He showed in the AFC Championship that he’s still capable of a monster performance against a high-end defense. Given Kelce’s popularity and prowess, he’s in a strong position to be the first tight end to ever win

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