You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is not considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.” They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
*Javonte Green (knee) — Out
*Gordon Hayward (ankle) — Out
*Chris Silva (knee) — Out
*Vlatko Cancar (foot) — Out
*Will Barton (knee) — Out
Kemba Walker ($7,700 DK/$7,400 FD) – Walker gets a new series and a new defensive matchup to focus on with the Heat. After struggling with the box-and-1 from the Raptors in the last two games of the series, Walker’s price tag has come down a bit on both sites. The Heat will likely mix in some zone at some point to help limit Walker’s driving lanes but in general we expect this series to be one that is heavy on isolation. The Heat have tremendous pick-and-roll defense with Bam Adebayo eating up opposing guards on switches and the Heat’s weakest defenders all come at the guard spots. We expect the Celtics to abandon some of their pick-and-rolls in order to isolate Walker against the weaker defenders. In the regular season Walker was in the 85th percentile in isolation efficiency but it came with a low play frequency. In the playoffs, he’s been atrocious in the fifth percentile but the small sample is heavy on the strong defensive options from the Raptors. We expect Walker will trail only Tatum in shot volume and while the overall scoring environment should be lower in MIA-BOS, Walker is a viable target with a decreased price tag.