Episode Summary: Market Monday – June 29 (June 29, 2026)
Adam Levitan returns with another Market Monday. He cannot make sense of the Quentin Johnston move — up 40 spots in two months on what Adam calls total air, one of the wildest moves he can recall in the best ball era. He continues to fade the mid-range quarterbacks at their current ADPs, this time Bo Nix at 112, while Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts can be had around pick 70. And he is buying Ricky Pearsall at 105 with Mike Evans 33, George Kittle coming off an Achilles tear, and Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk gone. Plus Terrance Ferguson as a sneaky late-round tight end stash on the Rams, Kaytron Allen at 200 as the cheapest piece of an ambiguous Commanders backfield, and Calvin Ridley as a behind-the-tier late-WR pass.
Listen to the Full Episode
Spotify | Apple Podcasts | YouTube
Key Topics
- Risers: Quentin Johnston up 7.3 spots to 72 overall on DraftKings, Ricky Pearsall up 2.4 to 105, and Terrance Ferguson up 5.2 to 202.
- Fallers: Bo Nix down 1.4 to 107.5 overall on Underdog, Kaytron Allen down 2.2 to 200, and Calvin Ridley down 3.0 to 191 overall.
Takeaway #1 (1:14): Quentin Johnston’s 40-spot rise is one of the wildest moves Adam can recall in the best ball era
- Two months ago, Johnston’s ADP was 114, and ETR was at 104 overall. Now he is going 72 overall, and ETR is at 97. Someone is going to have to explain this to Adam. ETR already knew Keenan Allen was unlikely to come back. Ladd McConkey sat out OTAs with a hamstring issue but is expected to be fine. Mike McDaniel is a good thing for QJ and the entire offense, but he was hired six months ago. Over the last two months, Adam legit does not see anything that has changed.
- Quentin Johnston has also not been a very good NFL player. He was one of the worst Round 1 rookie wide receivers ever in 2023. Even if you throw that out, across 2024 and 2025, QJ only posted a 60% catch rate, only caught 3.65 passes per game, and was at 1.54 yards per route run the last two years. Last season, he had eight games under 50 yards. Half the games he played. And the playmaking room in L.A. is crowded — McConkey, Tre’ Harris, the rookie Brennen Thompson, Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, Kimani Vidal, and a strong tight end room.
- One more thing they did not get to on the coaching changes pod: Mike McDaniel offenses tend to play pretty slow, which presses on volume. Adam was down to take QJ around pick 100 as part of Justin Herbert teams or running back-heavy starts. At 72, it is really hard for him to ever take QJ when he is going around Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jordyn Tyson, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tony Pollard.
Takeaway #2 (8:31): Adam is fading Bo Nix at 112 because the elite dual threats are still going around pick 70
- This is not health-related — all signs are the ankle will be ready for Week 1. Similar to what Adam said with Dak Prescott on last week’s Market Monday, he is just waiting for the market to correct on the gap between the elite dual-threat quarterbacks and the mid-range. Taking Bo Nix at 112 on DraftKings when you can get Jayden Daniels or Jalen Hurts around pick 70 just does not feel great.
- In terms of Nix himself, he has been a good fantasy quarterback through two NFL seasons in part because of rushing. He has 786 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns in 34 NFL games, which is pretty strong, especially for someone completing 65% of his passes and getting 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. Coming off the ankle injury, ETR needs his rushing. Adam thinks it is going to be fine. Adding Jaylen Waddle, who Adam thinks is one of the more underrated NFL wide receivers, also helps.
- Nix’s true ceiling is going to be capped by Denver’s elite defense and J.K. Dobbins eating run-game touches. Nix is the kind of quarterback Adam can single-stack with Waddle or Courtland Sutton at a reasonable cost and be okay with it. In a vacuum, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, and probably even Jared Goff have higher ceilings, which is why he ends up with more of them in this range than Nix. Adam will probably be slightly below market on Nix this year.
Takeaway #3 (4:09): Ricky Pearsall at 105 is a buy — Adam is not playing scared with injury risk
- When Adam is making running back-heavy starts, he really tries to get into that Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Jordan Addison, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Worthy, Matthew Golden tier of wide receivers. On Pearsall specifically, of course, he got shot and got his Rolex back. But longtime listeners know Adam is very much against the “I can predict injuries” crowd.
- Every NFL player who has a major role is a favorite to get hurt. They told Adam Christian McCaffrey would never sustain health, then he played 17 games in 2022, 2023, and 2025. They said Matthew Stafford was injury-prone early in his career, and he has been one of the NFL’s most durable quarterbacks since. Adam is not just going to ignore Pearsall’s ceiling because he is playing scared with regard to injury risk.
- Pearsall is set up nicely. Mike Evans is in his age-33 season. George Kittle is coming off an Achilles tear. Jauan Jennings is gone. Brandon Aiyuk is gone. Kyle Shanahan is the schemer. If you think McCaffrey is going to regress or get hurt off the massive volume last year, that is a boost to Pearsall as well. Adam would rank that wide receiver tier Pearsall, then Matthew Golden and Xavier Worthy. It is super close, and Adam likes all three.
Listen to the Full Episode
Spotify: Listen on Spotify
Apple Podcasts: Listen on Apple Podcasts
YouTube: Watch on YouTube
About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
Join our Free Email List: Sign Up
Subscribe to ETR: Subscribe
