ETR’s 2023 Late-Round RB Targets

 

This article will update bi-weekly (or more often) based on changing ADPs, news, and our projections.

Every season, at least one or two running backs emerge from late-round obscurity to win fantasy football championships for their teams. Just ask anyone who had Jamaal Williams or Kenneth Walker last year, or Cordarrelle Patterson in 2021. Identifying which RB(s) will obliterate their ADP is often the difference between winning your league and coming up short.

These league winners come in all shapes and sizes. On one end of the spectrum, you’ve got RBs locked in true committees with each back having a distinct role. On the other side, you’ve got your pure handcuffs who are unlikely to contribute unless the player ahead of them gets injured. There’s a time and place for all different archetypes, and we generally recommend mixing what kinds of backs you’re drafting. You don’t want to end up with exclusively insurance RBs who won’t do anything in Week 1 or only have complementary pass-catching backs who lack elite upside. You may also notice that some of these late-round backs are on the same NFL team; we generally don’t recommend drafting multiple RBs from the same franchise because their upside cases are usually negatively correlated.

With that in mind, let’s dig into some of the late-round RBs we like the most right now. For the purpose of this article, we’ll look at backs with an Underdog ADP in the middle rounds or later right now. The round each player is listed in is the round in which we would actually draft that player (because there are some players we like, but only if they slide slightly past ADP).

 

Last updated: August 14

 

ROUND 7

DAVID MONTGOMERY (ADP 77.3) – Detroit drafted Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick and the rookie should step in immediately as the primary pass-catching back, but Montgomery could lead the Lions in carries after signing a three-year, $18 million deal in March. He’s also an ideal fit for the goal-line role that just allowed Jamaal Williams to lead the league in rushing touchdowns.

Archetype: RB2 with standalone value and massive contingent upside

 

ROUND 8

JAMES COOK (ADP 84.7) – Cook was pushing Devin Singletary for RB1 duties by the end of last season and should have the pass-catching role to himself with Damien Harris and Latavius Murray as his only relevant competition. Harris/Murray may siphon goal-line looks and some early-down carries, but Cook still has intriguing upside as a committee back on one of the best offenses in football. Cook has also drawn rave reviews during Bills’ training camp.

Archetype: Top-two option in ambiguous backfield

 

ROUND 9

ANTONIO GIBSON (ADP 99.6) – Gibson was exiled to special teams duties at one point last offseason, but he shockingly rose from the ashes to post an 11.4% target share on the year. With J.D. McKissic gone, Gibson should get plenty of passing-game looks in 2023. He himself noted that he will be filling the McKissic role this season.

Archetype: Committee back with pass-catching floor and contingent upside

 

A.J. DILLON (ADP 101.2) – Aaron Rodgers‘ departure may hinder the Packers’ offense as a whole, but that’s baked into Dillon’s ADP. At its core, this is basically the same bet as it was last year: Dillon will split early downs with Aaron Jones and offers league-winning potential if something happens to his committee mate.

Archetype: RB2 with standalone value and massive contingent upside