Levitan: Favorite Fliers & Sleepers 2023

The best season-long players are continually attacking the waiver wire and churning through their roster. That’s especially true early in the season, when we learn so much about roles.

With that in mind, we want to prioritize upside over everything else with our later-round picks. If it doesn’t work out, we can simply drop them for the inevitable high-quality options that will be on the waiver wire come September. Note that is very different from best ball, where we are stuck with them all season.

Here are my favorite targets with an Underdog Average Draft Position (ADP) of 120.0 or later as of Aug. 13. Players I like such as James Cook, Brian Robinson, Zach Charbonnet, Daniel Jones, and Geno Smith all go too high to be considered a “flier”.

These are listed in ADP order, but please consult your league’s specific draft applet to understand more about where they will go.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills – Underdog ADP 122.5

The Bills knew they desperately needed to get Josh Allen more weapons. But the free-agent wide receiver class and the draft wide receiver class were both weak. So they traded up for Dalton Kincaid at No. 25 overall.

Although the 6-foot-4, 240-pound Kincaid is listed at tight end, that is not the traditional role he will play. I expect the Bills’ primary formation to be “11.5”, which means one RB (James Cook), two WRs (Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis), one TE (Dawson Knox), and one TE/WR hybrid (Kincaid). It’s the role Kincaid played in college, going for 70-890-8 in 12 games at Utah.

Tank Bigsby, RB, Jaguars – Underdog ADP 129.2

I am not down on Travis Etienne as a runner. In his first season off the foot surgery, he was extremely explosive. That said, there are real concerns about Etienne as a pass catcher and in short-yardage situations.

Enter Bigsby, who caught 51 passes over his final two seasons at Auburn and is at least a threat for clear pass-down work. I’m not ready to write off Etienne as the goal-line back since last season’s disaster was a small sample. But we can’t ignore that Bigsby is a threat there as well — he entered the first preseason game specifically for a 3rd-and-1.

Note that Bigsby’s Underdog ADP has steamed to a point I’m not overly comfortable with him. But in home leagues, I’d expect him to go far later.

Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams – Underdog ADP 142.0

Matthew Stafford (elbow) and Cooper Kupp (ankle) are both back. But beyond Kupp, there is no one on the roster with any history of earning targets.

Enter Higbee, who has averaged 6.0 targets per game over the last two seasons. He also projects to play 90+% of the snaps, as Sean McVay prefers to run static personnel/formations throughout games/seasons. And with Stafford back and looking healthy, there is room for an efficiency spike from Higbee.

Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos – Underdog ADP 147.1

The seas are parting for Mims. Tim Patrick (Achilles) and K.J. Hamler (pectoral, heart) are both done, handing Mims the No. 3 wide receiver job on a platter. That’s likely fine by Sean Payton, who traded up for Mims at No. 63 overall with his first pick in his first-ever draft in charge of the Broncos. Even though they appeared to be covered at wide receiver with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Hamler, and Patrick, and a WR/TE hybrid in Greg Dulcich. There were also trade rumors around Sutton this offseason; it’s not out of the question Mims can ascend to the No. 2 WR spot before the year is over.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins – Underdog ADP 158.2

De’Von Achane goes around 113 overall, so he doesn’t meet the threshold for this exercise. That said, I expect Mostert and Jeff Wi