NOTABLE INACTIVES (Will be updated after official inactives): 


Editor’s Note: For Evan Silva’s breakdown on every player in this game, click here. That is the best analysis on the game you will find. This article’s focus is to highlight specific strategies for this Showdown slate, not the game itself. 


Editor’s Note 2: To review our thoughts on general Showdown strategy, review the top portion of this article.




The most important part to being successful in one-game Showdown contests is constructing a highly correlated lineup built around how we think the game will be played. Closing out the Championship weekend with a matchup that features the Packers at 49ers, we have a 53-game sample that we can analyze for winning roster construction and look at any meaningful trends to apply as we close out the Showdown season. The winning lineups for the first 53 games are as follows: 


Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used)  (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times

Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)

Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain Deandre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Will Lutz – (13)

Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Cortland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)

Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)

Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins

Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)

Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)

Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein – 

Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)

Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)

Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys DST, Will Lutz, Saints DST – (3)

Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)

Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)

Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)

Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)

Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)

Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Phillip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)

Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams  – (23)

Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)

Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliot, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)

Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)

Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)

Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)

Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8) 

49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garappolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)

Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)

Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)

Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Phillip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)

Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)

Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)

Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)

Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)

Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Phillip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)

Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)

Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)

Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)

Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Will Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)

Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)

Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)

Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliot, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)

Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)

Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)

Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4) 

Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Will Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)

Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)

Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)

Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah

49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, DK Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk

Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)

Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain DK Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST

Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)

Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)






When we review winning lineups we can think backwards and determine what game script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the week nine MNF matchup, we knew it would be contrarian to build a lineup assuming Dallas scored only through the air and fade Ezekiel Elliot, who projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. With Prescott at Captain and multiple Dallas pass catchers in the FLEX spots, it made sense to get a piece of the Giants pass game as there would be increased pass volume in a come from behind effort. After the core was locked in it was all about maximizing points. We had very little appealing value on this slate and we know as dropbacks increase so do the opportunities for defenses to produce fantasy points via strip sacks and interceptions making the Dallas DST an exceptional play. A flukey late game defensive touchdown was the icing on the cake for the winning lineup Monday night. While it’s impossible to do on full-slates, building rosters or setting groups around an expected outcome is often the optimal strategy on one-game Showdown slates. We encourage you to look through the other winning rosters listed above and think through the process that would lead to each construction. 



Now on 27-of-53 (51%) winning rosters, DST’s continue to be deserving of roster consideration. Through 53 slates DST’s are averaging 7.8 DraftKings points at a $4200 average salary and 20.8% ownership. If we break this down further by favorites versus underdogs, we see favorites priced up to $5000 and owned at a 28.9% clip as opposed to just $3400 and 12.7% ownership for underdogs. To this point, the highest owned DST’s (Bears, Patriots, Vikings and Steelers) have paid off by finding their way onto the winning roster but because DST scoring is extremely high variance and scoring events like turnovers and defensive touchdowns are largely unpredictable, we may be able to leverage the field by rostering the cheaper, lesser owned option. It’s worth further noting that DST’s in higher total games are underowned relative to their probability of ending up on winning lineups. DST’s on Showdown slates featuring a total greater than 45 have been owned on average 16.3% and maintained a 7.3 median DraftKings score. 


Kickers have been just slightly less productive than DST’s from a raw points perspective and have found their way onto 22-of-53 (42%) winning rosters. Kickers remain one of the best points per dollar plays, scoring an impressive 7.5 DraftKings points on average at $3600 and 22.4% ownership. If we look at all fantasy performances through seven weeks we see that DST’s offer a wider range of outcomes and a higher ceiling than kickers due to the ability to score points via touchdowns. Thus far kickers have been priced “reasonably” by DraftKings, resulting in adequate or better point per dollar median projections. If prices start to rise, or if ownerships rise, these options become less viable GPP picks. Conversely, DraftKings has shown a willingness to aggressively change pricing based on matchup and opposing team total for DST’s. Whether we’re MME players or building just a single lineup, the ability of similarly priced players to outscore both kickers and DST’s will determine how often we need to roster either position. Read through our ‘notable players’ section for more slate specific thoughts on kickers and DST’s.







A second ticket will be punched to Super Bowl LIV in Sunday night’s NFC Conference Championship Showdown as the Packers head West to take on the 49ers as 7.5-point dogs in a middling 45-point total. In win-or-go-home games at the highest stakes, coaches have shown their true colors in the way they call plays and how they use their most talented players. The Packers figure to remain slightly pass heavy with the league’s twelfth-ranked situation-neutral pass rate (60%) while we can expect HC Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers sixth-ranked situation-neutral rush rate (46%) to dial up plenty of attempts on the ground for their three-headed monster in the backfield. As 7.5-point home favorites, there is a realistic possibility San Francisco is able to bury this overachieving Packers team early. When leading by at least a touchdown, the 49ers rush rate jumps 10%, making it more likely multiple running backs could outscore median projections on increased volume. Conversely, the Packers pass rate jumps 9% when trailing by at least a touchdown, bringing fringe pass catchers in to play in builds where we project the 49ers to control the game. 


During the regular season, Davante Adams ($11400) owned an already massive 29% target share to go along with a 33% share of the team’s air yards, usage that paled in comparison to the volume he saw in last week’s Divisional game. Against the Seahawks, Adams handled 50% of the team’s targets and 67% of the team’s air yards en route to an 8/160/2 receiving line. This is hardly uncharted territory for Adams who has been over a 40% target share in three of his last four games. We’re confident in HC Matt Lafleur’s ability to scheme Adams into plus matchups against the likes of Emmanuel Moseley or the dusty Akhello Witherspoon, putting him at the top of our Captain list. As we saw last week because of his massive share of the team’s receiving production, we don’t have to set a rule to include his QB in lineups where we roster him as our Captain. Allen Lazard’s ($5600) bum ankle has forced him into limited practices to start the week but we’re operating under the assumption he’ll be 100% Sunday. The Packers only ‘safe’ bet behind Adams, Lazard saw a 12% target share and a 20% share of the team’s air yards on a healthy 15.1 aDOT this season. Following a Divisional round dud, the price and ownership discount on Lazard will keep him in play in large field tournaments. Jimmy Graham ($4400) is proving to be game script dependent as he’s being used as the team’s primary pass catching TE in negative game flow but has given way to the trio of Marcedes Lewis ($200), Jace Sternberger ($200) and Robert Tonyan ($200) when the Packers are playing with a lead. In last weeks Divisional Round game, Graham played on just 38% of snaps but ran a route on 62% of dropbacks. The biggest takeaway from last week’s game was Aaron Jones’ ($9600) bellcow usage, playing on 84% of the snaps and handling 84% of the running back rushing attempts. Along with strong usage on the ground, Jones ran a route on 67% of dropbacks and added to his league-leading carries inside the five yard line, bringing his 2019-20 total to 22. Because of the difficult matchup against a 49ers defense that has limited production to the position both on the ground and through the air, Jones’ probability of being the slate’s top overall scorer isn’t reflected in his median projection and thus should lead to lower ownership compared to other expensive options. As Silva noted in matchups, there’s very little to discuss in favor of Aaron Rodgers ($10000) who is on the wrong side of his drastic home/road splits where his yards per attempt plummets to 6.12 and the 49ers elite DL figures to create havoc in the pocket Sunday night. Still, we’re not removing Rodgers from our Captain pool because of the public’s tendency to overweight median projections which should lead to lower-than-normal Captain ownership on a QB who has 300-yards + 3 TD’s firmly within his range of outcomes.


Last week’s Divisional round was full of duds for 49ers pass catchers as the team attempted just 19 passes in their 17-point drubbing of the Vikings. Both Deebo Samuel ($7400) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6800) got significant price decreases despite favorable matchups for both. Since Sanders joined the team in week eight, Samuel has out-targeted him in 5-of-10 games and has quietly become useful in the running game with nine rushing attempts over his last five games. Because median projections favor Samuel over Sanders he will catch higher ownership, leaving Sanders as an obvious pivot on the hopes that he can see a usage spike. Slot man and noted touchdown scorer Kendrick Bourne ($6000) was the recipient of a questionable $3000 price increase after going for 3/40/1 against the Vikings as the 49ers only fantasy-viable pass catcher. Bourne played on just 32% of the team’s snaps and ran a route on 62% of dropbacks. Interestingly, the steep price increase and narrow gap between he and the preferred options is going to naturally reduce his ownership, keeping him firmly in play, as an albeit suboptimal, flex option. It’s a prime bounce back spot for George Kittle ($9400) coming off a disappointing 3/16/0 receiving line, going up against a Green Bay defense that allowed 83/920/6 on 114 targets to opposing TE’s this season. Kittle remains the 49ers undisputed top receiving threat with a 28% target share to go along with a 26% share of the team’s air yards. Capable of cresting 100-yards and scoring multiple touchdowns every time he takes the field, Kittle is our favorite Captain option on the 49ers side of the ball. Hardly a surprise, Tevin Coleman ($8800) operated as the team’s lead back against Minnesota, racking up a 22/105/2 rushing line while playing on 46% of the snaps and handling 51% of the team’s rushing attempts. Because it would be equally unsurprising if Raheem Mostert ($6400) were to reclaim his role as the team’s lead back, we’re not creating any rules to limit our lineups to just one of Coleman, Mostert or Matt Breida ($1800), rather we’re allowing for multiple running backs on the same lineup, so long as they’re both in the flex position. As touchdown favorites at home with a healthy 26.5-point implied total, Jimmy Garoppolo ($8200) remains an option despite serious concerns over his volume. Priced nearly $2200 below his season average he’s capable of turning in a Captain-worthy performance in the event the 49ers fall behind or this game becomes a shootout. In games Garoppolo has dropped back at least 30 times he’s average 19.8 DraftKings points as opposed to just 11.6 in games with less than 30 dropbacks. 




*Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Raheem Mostert – Especially coming off an eruption game last week, 49ers DC Robert Saleh’s primary focus will be on shutting down Adams. Because CB Richard Sherman rarely leaves the left side, Lafleur has already said he’ll scheme Adams into positive matchups away from Sherman, leaving us less concerned about the matchup. It’s worth noting that last weeks winning Showdown lineup was a Captain Adams team not stacked with Rodgers. His massive share of the team’s receiving production, makes it more likely we can Captain him without his QB. 


*Captain Aaron Rodgers, Three Packers Pass Catchers, Tevin Coleman – We think Captain Rodgers stacks are viable if the inverse of the above occurs Sunday night. Rodgers + Adams and/or Rodgers + Adams + Lazard lineups will still garner plenty of ownership. The way to differentiate is by including a third Packers pass catcher under the assumption production is evenly distributed and Rodgers hits the 300-yard bonus while throwing for multiple TD’s. 


*Captain Aaron Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Emmanuel Sanders – The 49ers run defense is an obvious concern as they’ve held opposing RB’s to just 3.61 YPC over their last four games. Jones’ is capable of overcoming a difficult matchup on the back of a newfound bellcow role.


*Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Allen Lazard – Kittle may be the best talent + opportunity + matchup Captain option on the entire slate and he comes at a discount from other top options. 


*Captain Tevin Coleman, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones – Expecting a repeat performance of last week’s lead back role, Coleman is a viable Captain option. Running it back with just Adams and Jones from Green Bay makes sense as they accounted for 66% of the team’s week 19 touches.


*Captain Jimmy Garoppolo, 2-3 49ers Pass Catchers, Aaron Jones – Garoppolo becomes a reasonable Captain option in game scripts where we project the 49ers to fall behind early. In these lineups it makes sense to boost the projections on all San Francisco pass catchers and make a concerted effort to include at least two of them on each team. It’s worth noting, Garoppolo is priced just $200 above the QB salary floor, around names like Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum and Devlin Hodges.


*Captain Deebo Samuel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tevin Coleman – We wouldn’t argue with Emmanuel Sanders here either but give the slight lean to Samuel due to his superior target share down the stretch and occasional involvement in the running game. 




Notable Players not already listed as Captain above:

If a player is listed above as a Captain option or as part of a stack they are worth rostering as a stand alone flex as well. As discussed above the need to roster kickers and DST’s is tied to how many rosterable players we have in the same salary range. Because DraftKings is unwilling to price up kickers to a level that would reflect their median projections, we’re left with very few players who are priced around them that present the opportunity to outscore them. Pricing on DST’s has been slightly more fluid based on the matchup and opposing team’s total but they too remain underpriced relative to their median projections. While constructing rosters, consider the game environment/outcome necessary for these cheap players to beat the kickers and/or DST’s. 


Emmanuel Sanders – As noted above, Sanders and Samuel are interchangeable in the Captain slot and Sanders actually leads in target share (20% to 17%) share of air yards (35% to 17%) and end zone targets (7 to 2) since joining the team.

Raheem Mostert – A perfect storm of Tevin Coleman’s hot start and Mostert’s cramping calf led to a disappointing 12/58/0 Divisional round line. In a three-headed RBBC it’s always possible one guy takes over lead duties making the duo of Mostert and Coleman risky at their price tags. However, since week 13 he had handled at least 40% of the team’s rushing attempts and played on > 50% of the snaps in every game. Last week’s anomaly brought with it a $2000 price decrease and vastly lower ownership. 

Kendrick Bourne – Ironically, Bourne’s ridiculous $3000 price hike is the exact reason he remains in play. Despite scoring the team’s lone receiving touchdown in last week he should go virtually unowned at a tough-to-stomach pricetag.

Allen Lazard – Lazard played on just 31% of snaps last week after injuring his ankle. He was removed from the injury report Friday and should be expected to once again run as the Packers WR2. Lazard stands to benefit most if the 49ers secondary is able to contain Adams. 

Jimmy Graham – Graham’s 38% snap share was likely a result of game script as he still ran a route on 62% of Rodgers dropbacks and was second behind Adams with four targets.

Jamaal Williams – Williams played on just 14% of the team’s snaps and saw two total touches. A legit risk to score zero fantasy points, we’d need him to approach the 35-40% workload share he had seen during the regular season to be viable. 

Geronimo Allison – As the Packers led for nearly the entire game, warranting more 2TE sets, Allison played on just 31% of snaps. We expect Sunday’s game to require more passes and thus more 3WR sets, making Allison a viable stacking option with Rodgers at a dirt cheap price tag.

Matt Breida – The forgotten man in the 49ers backfield, Breida’s touch projection ranges anywhere from 0-10 making him a large field tournament flyer priced well below his late season average.

Jake Kumerow – Kumerow was the biggest beneficiary of the Lazard injury, playing on 47% of snaps and running a route on 50% of dropbacks, well ahead of teammate Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Tyler Ervin – Having played on 11% of snaps, running a handful of routes and also handling the Packers kick and punt return duties, Ervin makes our player pool as an extremely low owned GPP dart throw.

Marcedes Lewis/Jace Sternberger/Robert Tonyan – With snaps rates of 66%, 44% and 33%, respectively and stone minimum price tags all three Packers TE’s are worth consideration after we just saw Luke Willson land in optimal lineups. 



Again, roster construction and correlation are the most important factors for GPP success in the Showdown format. But understanding who will be popular helps. A rough guide to who we think will be the most owned:


Higher projected ownership, in order of descending salary:


* Davante Adams

* Aaron Jones

* George Kittle

* Tevin Coleman



Lower projected ownership, in order of descending salary:


* Raheem Mostert

* Kendrick Bourne

* Jamaal Williams

* Geronimo Allison