Expect this slate to have three popular plays, with a few strong leverage options and a few other viable teams that I currently intend to pass on.
Below, I’ll discuss multiple games, listed from highest projected ownership to least for teams with at least 1% projected ownership. As always, I will check in via the survivor pool channel in Discord to discuss any updates I have on any matchup.
If you’re in a pool with holiday slates, like Circa, you can find those schedules at the bottom of this column.
49ers vs. Panthers (Monday Night Football)
Spread: 49ers -7
Total: 48.5
Ownership: 29%
The 49ers are still available in most entries in major survivor tournaments, where we can expect high ownership this week and potentially 50+% type ownership in Week 15 vs. Tennessee.
The Titans have not only been genuinely bad virtually every week this season, but they are a rudderless ship with an interim coach. I watch every NFL game for a reason, and given that, a lot of things will need to go wrong for the 49ers not to win that Week 15 game unless the Titans transform between now and then. Since they came off their bye last week still looking bad, that is very unlikely.
This game against the Panthers, I’m more concerned about, as Carolina is 6-5 with a good coach, and San Francisco’s injuries have closed what would have been a wide talent gap between these two teams on Opening Day.
I ultimately still think the 49ers win this game, but I’d rather fade them as a chalky option here and play them as a chalky option coming off a bye, against the league’s worst team in Tennessee in Week 15, where they’ll have a massive coaching advantage.
I have no intention of playing the 49ers next week unless I have to, as I saw exactly how they can lose a game in Cleveland back in 2023, and San Francisco has a worse roster now than they did then.
The options you have in your entry each week play a major role in when to play a team like San Francisco, but that is my plan for them.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 at CLE, Week 15 vs. TEN
Ravens vs. Jets
Spread: Ravens -13.5
Total: 44.5
Ownership: 28%
Baltimore’s ownership will vary greatly depending on the tournament. In holiday-slate tournaments, like Circa, Ravens ownership could be a little less than this 28% projection, given their Thanksgiving slate viability next week.
In most tournaments, expect Baltimore to be used in roughly 50% of the entries that still have them available. In tournaments that now require two picks per week, ownership could get out of control in those situations, where I could see the Ravens being used in 75% of entries that still have them available, if not higher.
Joe Burrow was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, so he may be available for both looming matchups with Baltimore. For Circa or other holiday-slate tournaments, Baltimore and the Eagles are currently both -7.5 favorites that will see most of the ownership on those slates. For every other tournament, the prospect of Burrow returning makes Baltimore less attractive next week but still viable in a short-week home game. However, Burrow’s potential return would make Baltimore close to a cross-off in Week 15.
In this matchup against the Jets, barring any injury developments late in the week, I’d be stunned if New York wins this game. In fact, Rams vs. Saints back in Week 9 and the Ravens here strike me as the two most unlikely-to-lose options on the season to date.
I intend to play the Ravens where I still have them, and they are my favorite option on this slate.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 vs. CIN (Thanksgiving), Week 15 at CIN
Seahawks at Titans
Spread: Seahawks -13.5
Total: 40.5
Ownership: 20%
Tennessee had a very winnable game coming off their bye against Houston last week, and the Texans did everything they could to give said game away, but this is just a bad Titans team that struggles to move the ball and rarely finishes drives even when they do.
Seattle is coming off a truly ugly offensive performance against the Rams last week, and the Seahawks’ defensive front has a trench advantage in this contest. This matchup in Tennessee is Seattle’s best possible matchup, so expect them to be used in roughly two-thirds of the entries that still have them available.
If you still have the Seahawks, they will be an interesting leverage option in each of the next two weeks. If you still have Seattle (I do not), I view them as more of a fringe playoff team than anything else, but I don’t have much issue playing them against Tennessee. The Titans will be a weekly target in survivor going forward, which puts them in a position to derail a slate or two before year’s end. But for them to beat even a semi-quality team, the Titans will need to be a significantly different team than they’ve been all year.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 vs. MIN, Week 14 at ATL, Week 17 at CAR
Lions vs. Giants
Spread: Lions -10.5
Total: 50.5
Ownership: 8%
Detroit is coming off a loss where their offense did not play well, to return home against a poorly coached Giants defense whose talented pass rush has underachieved all year (aside from Brian Burns).
If you still have the Lions, this is my favorite spot for them through the rest of the year, as they simply have more firepower than the Giants, regardless of who starts at quarterback this week. The Lions double as a leverage option on what is expected to be a top-heavy slate.
In entries that I still have Detroit, I am likely playing them this week. In fact, I’d lean toward Detroit being my second-favorite option on the slate behind Baltimore.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 14 vs. DAL (TNF), Week 16 vs. PIT, Week 17 at MIN
Raiders vs. Browns
Spread: Raiders -3.5
Total: 36.5
Ownership: 5%
The Raiders couldn’t hit 20 points in a negative game script against Dallas last week, in a home primetime game. Not only has Geno Smith been awful as a Raider, but he’s always been problematic in pressure management, and Myles Garrett is coming off a game where he sacked Lamar Jackson four times last week.
I get that Cleveland’s defense has been a different animal on the road and that Shedeur Sanders is making his first NFL start, but I have no interest in playing this Raiders team in survivor. Even if I had an entry where I was stuck with less-than-ideal options, I’d still try to find something other than the Raiders.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 17 vs. NYG
Patriots at Bengals
Spread: Patriots -7.5
Total: 50.5
Ownership: 2%
If Joe Burrow returns this week, I would not mess with New England in this spot. If Burrow remains sidelined, New England comes with leverage on this slate, but I’d rather play them at home against the Giants next week or in Week 17 at the Jets.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 vs. NYG (MNF), Week 17 at NYJ, Week 18 at MIA
Packers vs. Vikings
Spread: Packers -6.5
Total: 41.5
Ownership: 2%
If you still have Green Bay (I do not), I have little to no interest in playing them against Chicago. The Bears split with the Packers last year, and lost by one point in a game they should have won. That was against the 5-12, poorly coached Bears. Chicago is an odd team, as they are 7-3 but are still more of a team with a bright future than a top-of-the-conference team like their record would indicate. Still, the Bears are not a target in most situations, especially not for a team like Green Bay that really hasn’t been impressive since the first two weeks of the season.
That means if you still have Green Bay, this week at home against the Vikings or Week 18 in Minnesota are the best matchups left on the schedule. J.J. McCarthy is not a starting-caliber NFL quarterback right now, so if you still have the Packers, they are an interesting leverage option here.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 14 vs. CHI, Week 18 at MIN
Bills at Texans (Thursday Night Football)
Spread: Bills -6
Total: 43.5
Ownership: 2%
I don’t have much interest in messing with this Bills team on the road, on a short week, against Houston’s pass rush. I’m definitely not getting involved in this game if C.J. Stroud returns to action, because that gives the desperate Texans too many outs.
My primary concern with Week 16’s matchup against the Browns is that Cleveland is one of a handful of NFL cities that often get a game-breaking wind game late in the season. I think that environment would help the Browns more than the Bills. Week 18 comes with the danger that Josh Allen plays a partial game or outright sits, depending on Buffalo’s situation.
All in all, in the one spot I still have Buffalo, I plan to play them in Week 16 unless things are shaping up where they have to go full throttle in Week 18.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 16 at CLE, Week 18 vs. NYJ
Eagles at Cowboys
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 47.5
Ownership: 1%
The Eagles are still available in most entries in major tournaments, where they are available in 82.3% of Circa entries to give you a baseline. I have no interest in playing them in this spot, on this slate, but they are a very important piece for most remaining entries.
In Circa, expect the Eagles to see somewhere around 40% ownership against the Bears on the Thanksgiving slate next week, and then to hit a similar figure in Week 15 vs. Vegas.
In most non-Circa tournaments, that Week 15 matchup against the Raiders could see over 50% ownership.
I used the Eagles as a leverage option in a lot of my entries in their second matchup with the Giants weeks ago. My plan for Philadelphia in entries where I have not used them is to hold them for Week 15, where I hope we’ll have a clear view of Jayden Daniels’ availability in Week 16. If Daniels is out, that will make Philly very viable on both slates, which could make their ownership more manageable against the Raiders. If Daniels is back, Eagles ownership could get out of control in Week 15, but it’s hard to envision the Eagles losing to this Raiders team, which has been dreadful all year.
I’d rather not mess with the Eagles-Bears game next week unless it’s a holiday-slate tournament. I would rather not play the Eagles in Week 14 at the Chargers, but L.A. has been bad enough that I’m at least open to the possibility of Philly being an ultra-aggressive leverage option on that slate. Similar to the Bills, holding the Eagles for Week 18 comes with a ton of potential downside if they are in a position to rest starters.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 vs. CHI (Black Friday), Week 14 at LAC (MNF), Week 15 vs. LV, Week 16 at WAS, Week 18 vs. WAS
Jaguars at Cardinals
Spread: Jaguars -3
Total: 47.5
Ownership: 1%
I’m not surprised the Jaguars beat the Chargers last week, but I’m pretty stunned they blew them out. I have little to no interest in betting on a team like Jacksonville following up a spike performance like that with another, and I like it even less on the road against a Cardinals team that was blown out last week themselves. I’m passing on Jacksonville, which will see significant ownership next week and in Week 15.
My plan for the Jaguars is to hold them for Week 15, while having the option to play them or the Titans in that regular-season finale game, where I lean toward holding Jacksonville for the final week.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 at TEN, Week 15 vs. NYJ, Week 18 vs. TEN
Chiefs vs. Colts
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 50.5
Ownership: 1%
The Chiefs are 5-5 hosting a 9-2 Colts team, yet they are still home favorites with the half-point hook on the key number of three. I think Kansas City wins this game, but there is little to no reason to get involved with them in survivor on this slate, given their future matchups and the other options on this slate.
In Circa, Kansas City is an aggressive but interesting leverage pivot in Dallas on the Thanksgiving slate. The Ravens and Eagles could easily combine for 80% (or more) ownership on that slate in Circa, where Philadelphia will host a Bears team that is currently 7-3, while the Ravens may face Joe Burrow. If you are a game-theory/leverage player with the Chiefs available in Circa, you should give them a ton of consideration next week.
The problem with that line of thinking is Chiefs-Broncos is a Christmas Slate game where they could be a leverage option on that slate as well, in a game they likely win.
Best Remaining Matchups: Week 13 at DAL (Thanksgiving), Week 14 vs. HOU (SNF), Week 15 vs. LAC, Week 16 at TEN, Week 17 vs. DEN, Week at LV
Cumulative Ownership Projection: 99%
Thanksgiving Slate (Week 13)
Lions vs. Packers
Cowboys vs. Chiefs
Ravens vs. Bengals
Eagles vs. Bears (Black Friday)
Christmas Slate (Week 17)
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Vikings vs. Lions
Chiefs vs. Broncos
