Congratulations on getting to the big dance in your season-long fantasy league.  We hope that you win the whole… thing.  Use the wire this week to upgrade yourself or to block your opponent from any kind of meaningful upgrade.  If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @RyanReynNJ or via email at [email protected]

Week 16 Waiver Wire

Quarterbacks

  1. Phillip Rivers – 15% FAAB Budget
  2. Ryan Fitzpatrick – 10%
  3. Andy Dalton – 10%
  4. Mitch Trubisky – 8%
  5. Gardner Minshew – 6%
  6. Daniel Jones/ Eli Manning – 6%
  7. Jacoby Brissett – 5%
  8. Dwayne Haskins – 3%
  9. Drew Lock – 3%
  10. Will Grier – 3%

 

Running Backs

  1. Mike Boone – 50% FAAB Budget
  2. Adrian Peterson – 50%
  3. Alexander Mattison – 50%
  4. DeAndre Washington – 40%
  5. Boston Scott – 30%
  6. Chris Thompson – 30%
  7. Patrick Laird – 25%
  8. Myles Gaskin – 25%
  9. Kerryon Johnson – 25%
  10. Wes Hills – 20%
  11. Ty Johnson – 20%
  12. C.J. Prosise – 10%

 

Wide Receiver

  1. Breshad Perriman – 50% FAAB Budget
  2. Anthony Miller – 40%
  3. John Ross – 30%
  4. James Washington – 30%
  5. Justin Watson – 30%
  6. Greg Ward – 30%
  7. Diontae Johnson – 25%
  8. Kenny Stills – 25%
  9. Chris Conley – 25%
  10. Alex Erickson – 20%
  11. Danny Amendola – 20%
  12. Albert Wilson – 10%

 

Tight Ends
Note: If Jacob Hollister is available in your league, Seattle plays the Cardinals in Week 16, who have been shredded by tight ends throughout the season.

  1. O.J. Howard – 50% FAAB Budget
  2. Noah Fant – 40%
  3. Mike Gesicki – 30%
  4. Jonnu Smith – 25%
  5. Jimmy Graham – 20%
  6. Cameron Brate – 20%

 

Defenses
Note: If the Chiefs Defense is available, they would be ranked at the top of this list along with Denver.

  1. Broncos – 10% FAAB Budget
  2. Colts – 8%
  3. Chargers – 8%
  4. Bengals – 3%
  5. Redskins – 0%

 

Kickers

  1. Younghoe Koo – 1% FAAB Budget
  2. Dan Bailey – 1%

 

Quarterbacks

  1. Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers, 15% FAAB Budget: Rivers is nearing the end of a Hall-of-Fame worthy career, which is a nice way of saying that his declining arm strength has become a liability at times throughout the 2019 season. With that out of the way, Rivers is a 6-point home favorite with an implied team total of 26 ½ points against a freefalling Raiders team that has been blown out in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Chargers have exceptional weapons on offense and the Raiders do not have an imposing pass rush, which paves the way for Rivers to post another 300-yard performance in the air (Rivers has 300 yards passing in 3 of his last 4 games).  The downside to playing Rivers in this spot is that the Chargers defense has the capability of shutting down a Raiders offense that has only exceeded 20 points once in their last 5 games.  If the Raiders can’t score, the Chargers passing game volume could be lighter than we’d like.
  1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Dolphins, 10%: Fitzpatrick’s Dolphins are a 1-point home favorite with an implied team total of 23 ½ against the Bengals in Week 16. Volume, the Dolphins reliance on their passing attack due to a lack of run game, and Fitzpatrick’s value as a runner are the strongest stances for playing Fitzpatrick, who has posted over 20 Draft Kings points in 3 of his last 4 outings.  The downside in playing Fitzpatrick is that the Dolphins remain one of the most talent-poor rosters in football and the Bengals defense has been playing relatively well since early November.
  1. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals, 10%: Dalton is coming off a nightmare, but not exactly unexpected 4-interception performance against the Patriots in Week 15. In Week 16, Dalton draws the best possible matchup against the Dolphins as a slight road underdog with an implied team total of 22 ½.  Dalton’s ceiling is high due to the matchup, even with A.J. Green likely to remain sidelined.  The downside in playing Dalton in this spot is that the Bengals are a one-win team and, thus, are the very definition of unreliable.
  1. Mitch Trubisky, QB, Bears, 8%: Trubisky is in an interesting position as a 5-point home underdog to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Trubisky has had four fantasy relevant outputs in a row now, going over 300 yards passing twice during that span.  The most encouraging aspect of that four-game stretch is that Trubisky is starting to run more often, which is one of his better traits as a quarterback.  Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is capable of exceeding their implied point total (25 this week) any time they take the field, which could be good for Trubisky’s fantasy prospects if the Bears are forced to keep pace.  Having been to Solider Field in December a few times, be sure to check in on the wind situation in Chicago as we get deeper in the week if you’re debating plugging Trubisky into your lineup.  In 2-QB formats, Trubisky is a reasonable play.
  1. Gardner Minshew, QB, Jaguars, 6%: After five consecutive blowout losses for Jacksonville, Minshew scrapped together a come from behind victory against the Raiders in their last game in Oakland, and he apparently loved it. In Week 16 Minshew has an interesting matchup in Atlanta as a 7-point road underdog with a low 19 ¼ implied team total.  The Jaguars have become unreliable over the last month and a half, making this a situation to best avoid in season-long outside of 2-QB leagues.  However, Minshew does have some appeal in an indoor game against a Falcons defense that, while improved during the second half of the season, has given up at least 20 points in every game this year.
  1. Daniel Jones/ Eli Manning, QB, Giants, 6%: Jones has missed each of the last two games with a high-ankle sprain, making him an option best avoided outside of 2-QB leagues if he’s able to return. Jones was fairly underwhelming in his first meeting with the Redskins back in Week 4, throwing for 225 yards with a touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 33 yards rushing.  On the plus side, wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton should all be good to go, giving Jones or Eli Manning a better compliment of weapons than the Giants had back in late September.  If Jones plays, he has a little more upside than Eli due to the former’s ability to run, which could reasonably be hampered by his ankle injury.
  1. Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts, 5%: The Colts passing offense has not been very reliable during the second half of this season, with the Colts coming off a 34-7 Monday Night loss in New Orleans.  On the bright side, the Colts are 7-point home favorites over the Panthers in a contest with a solid 46 ½ point game total.  The Panthers have been spiraling downwards for weeks, setting up for a solid bounce back spot for the Colts, which could make Brissett a decent option in 2-QB formats.  Given the Panthers inability to stop the run this season, it’s also very likely that the Colts come out trying to exploit that deficiency.
  1. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Redskins, 3%: Haskins is coming off his best game as a pro last week, throwing for 261 yards and 2 scores against a consistently exploitable Eagles secondary. The upside for Haskins in 2-QB formats is that Washington will host another NFC East pass defense that may actually be worse than the Eagles, as the Skins take on the Giants in Week 16.  The floor for Haskins in this spot is 6 Draft Kings points, but 250 yards passing and 2 touchdowns is not out of the question against a Giants pass defense that can’t rush the passer and lost their best secondary player in cornerback Janoris Jenkins.
  1. Drew Lock, QB, Broncos, 3%: Lock is a fringe 2-QB or very deep league consideration only as a 6 ½ point home favorite against the Lions in Week 16. If you have to play Lock this week, make sure to check in on the weather conditions in Denver as the week progresses.
  1. Will Grier, QB, Panthers, 3%: In college Grier was aggressive, bordering on reckless with the capacity for both explosive performances as well as the occasional meltdown game. Grier also played his best football during his biggest games and, for his future NFL career prospects, Week 16 in Indianapolis is a massive opportunity for him.  While Grier is only a 2-QB league dart throw or possibly an add in dynasty formats, the Panthers have talent on offense and the Colts have given up 30 or more points in each of their last 3 games.

 

Running Backs

  1. Mike Boone, RB, Vikings, 50% FAAB Budget: If running backs Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison miss Week 16’s installment of Monday Night Football against the Packers, you could argue that Boone is the most valuable running back waiver add of the 2019 season. Preseason stud Boone played well in relief duty of the injured Cook last week, rushing for 56 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries on the road against the Chargers.  While Boone’s value ultimately hinges on the availability of Cook and/ or Mattison, Boone can legitimately play and he could be a real difference maker if he ends up with the bulk of the workload this week.  Strategically, you should consider dropping anyone that you’re not going to play, that would not upgrade your opponent this week to grab Boone.  Even if you aren’t going to play him, do what you can to keep the option from your opponent whenever feasible.  Considering that ESPN reporter Adam Schefter said that he’d be surprised if Cook suits up in Week 16 or 17, Boone needs to be added everywhere this week.
  1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Redskins, 50%: Since Week 6, Peterson has double-digit Draft Kings points in 6-of-9 games. With running back Derrius Guice once again sidelined with injury, we can expect another strong workload in a good matchup as Washington is a slight home favorite over the Giants.  Peterson is more valuable in standard formats than PPR, as he’s only had more than two targets twice this season.
  1. Alexander Mattison, RB, Vikings, 50%: Mattison missed Week 15 due to injury (ankle), so his status needs to be monitored heading into Week 16 due to Dalvin Cook’s own injury uncertainty. Preseason standout Mike Boone played well after Cook went down last week in Los Angeles.  However, Mattison has ran ahead of Boone all season and Mattison’s base production has been solid.  One could reasonably expect that if Mattison is back and Cook sits, that Mattison could end up staying ahead of Boone in the pecking order.  Considering that ESPN reporter Adam Schefter said that he’d be surprised if Cook suits up in Week 16 or 17, Mattison needs to be added everywhere until he is officially ruled out.
  1. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions, 30%: Johnson is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 16 against Denver. While it would be at least somewhat careless for the Lions to plug Johnson into an offense helmed by a third-string quarterback in a lost season, Johnson has practiced for two weeks and has voiced a desire to play again this year.  If your opponent is thin at running back, it could be in your best interest to stash Johnson just in case he plays this week.
  1. Boston Scott, RB, Eagles, 30%: Scott returned to a secondary role behind Miles Sanders in Week 15 in Washington. But he did catch all 7 of his targets for 39 yards while adding 26 on the ground on 6 carries.  Given the decimated status of the Eagles wide receiver corps, it’s reasonable to expect that Philadelphia will have to rely more on their tight end pair and their running backs to generate offense.
  1. Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins, 30%: Thompson only had 2 catches for 26 yards on 3 targets in Week 15 versus the Eagles, so his usage remains inconsistent in Bill Callahan’s With that said, Thompson faces a Giants offense that is slow at linebacker in Week 16, which at least gives him a sliver of extra upside.  All things considered Thompson’s usage has been sporadic since his return from injury and he should only be played as a last resort.
  1. DeAndre Washington, RB, Raiders, 25%: Just in case Raiders brass decides to protect rookie running back Josh Jacobs from himself this week, Washington would be the primary ball carrier for Oakland if Jacobs can’t go due to a fractured shoulder.
  1. Patrick Laird, RB, Dolphins, 25%: Laird was benched against the Giants in Week 15, which sheds some significant doubt on his Week 16 role against the Bengals. With that said, Miami has not effectively ran the ball all season and Laird’s value has largely been based on his abilities as a pass catcher.  Regardless, Laird is likely to be a pretty thin play in Week 16 as Myles Gaskin played well enough against the Giants to warrant some more significant run against the Bengals.
  1. Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins, 25%: Gaskins played well against the Giants after replacing Patrick Laird, rushing for 43 yards on 9 carries while adding 29 yards receiving on 2 catches off of 3 targets. While that performance will likely lead to Gaskins seeing a similar workload against the Bengals in Week 16, you probably don’t want to be betting on Dolphins running backs in the fantasy championship if that can be avoided.
  1. Wes Hills, RB, Lions, 20%: Hills is the sixth Lions running back mentioned in this column this season. If you’re in a position where you may have to consider Hills in a very deep league, you’re counting on rushing touchdowns that require both Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough sitting out Week 16.
  1. Ty Johnson, RB, Lions, 20%: With J.D. McKissic going down with injury in Week 15, Johnson took on an expanded role as a pass catcher, hauling in 4-of-5 targets for 17 yards against the Bucs. While you have to keep an eye on the Lions the various injury situations in the Lions backfield before considering Johnson in deep leagues, if it’s just him and Wes Hills available next week he could be a potential superflex upgrade over some of the options that I’ve seen in deep leagues.
  1. C.J. Prosise, RB, Seahawks, 10%: The Seahawks are 9 ½ point home favorites over the Cardinals and Prosise is now the primary reserve behind Seahawks running back Chris Carson. While playing Prosise would be an extraordinarily thin play in season-long, there is at least a path to him seeing 10 touches in this game given the Seahawks high volume running back deployments throughout the season.

 

Wide Receiver

  1. Breshad Perriman, WR, Buccaneers, 50% FAAB Budget: Perriman went postal in Week 15 in Detroit with a 5-113-3 line on 6 targets. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians has historically found value in burners like Perriman, so Perriman’s opportunity is not entirely unexpected in Mike Evans’ absence, even if his production was.  With Evans and Chris Godwin both set to miss Week 16’s tremendous matchup with the Texans, Perriman could legitimately be viewed as the Buccaneers number 1 pass-catching option in this potential shootout.
  1. Anthony Miller, WR, Bears, 40%: Miller continued to roll in Week 15, posting a 9-118-1 line in a come from behind effort in Green Bay last week. Sunday Nights matchup with the Chiefs in Soldier Field presents a similar opportunity, as the Bears are projected to play from behind as 5-point underdogs, which could force greater passing game volume for the Bears which would, in turn, increase Miller’s value.
  1. John Ross, WR, Bengals, 30%: Ross’s snap share went from 49% in Week 14 to 37% in Week 15, which is quite concerning heading into the Bengals tremendous matchup with the Dolphins in Week 16. With that said, as long as A.J. Green remains sidelined, Ross has a big ceiling in this contest.  For season-long purposes, Ross’s limited snap share should temper expectations in this matchup without reliable news eluding to Ross seeing a more significant workload as we get closer to the weekend.
  1. James Washington, WR, Steelers, 30%: Playing any Steelers receiver given their quarterback situation is not for the faint of heart. With that said, Washington has been trending up for a while now and he’s coming off an 11-target performance while posting a 5-83 box score against a high-end Bills defense.  In Week 16 the Steelers draw a Jets secondary that has been torched through the air all season.  While efficiency will absolutely be a concern for any Steelers offensive player, Washington’s potential for another usage spike against a vulnerable pass defense gives him a high ceiling, paired with a volatile floor in this contest.
  1. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers, 25%: While teammate James Washington has been more steadily productive than Johnson in JuJu Smith-Schuster’s absence, Johnson has logged at least 4 targets in each of the last 6 weeks while drawing a very beatable Jets secondary in Week 16. Efficiency will be an issue for all Steelers offensive players, but the path to a strong performance is there for Johnson as well as Washington.
  1. Kenny Stills, WR, Texans, 25%: In somewhat ironic fashion, Stills caught all 3 of his targets for 35 yards and 2 touchdowns despite Will Fuller returning to action. Given Fuller’s up and down injury status this season, it could be wise to stash Stills just in case Fuller can’t play against Tampa Bay in a potential shootout.
  1. Chris Conley, WR, Jaguars, 25%: In D.J. Chark’s absence, Conley put together a strong, touchdown reliant fantasy day with a 4-49-2 box score on 8 targets against the reeling Raiders. If Chark should miss Week 16’s matchup in Atlanta, Conley would be in position to see another strong opportunity.
  1. Alex Erickson, WR, Bengals, 20%: Erickson’s value in Week 16 is built off a great matchup against Miami and his sneaky solid target share over the past month (8, 2, 7, 5). There are a few subscribers that I have discussed superflex options with in very deep leagues, Erickson would be an upgrade in many of those positions.
  1. Danny Amendola, WR, Lions, 20%: Playing Lions offensive players outside of Kenny Golladay should be avoided outside of the deepest of leagues. With that said, now that Marvin Jones is out, Amendola is coming off an 8-102 line on 13 targets against the Bucs last week and would warrant consideration in deeper leagues, despite a more difficult matchup against Denver in Week 16.
  1. Greg Ward, WR, Eagles, 10%: With the Eagles wide receiver group decimated by injuries, Ward posted a 7-61-1 line on 9 targets against the Redskins last week. With a Week 16 matchup with Dallas for the fate of the NFC East on deck, Ward is looking at another significant role in the Eagles’ offense.
  1. Albert Wilson, WR, Dolphins, 10%: Wilson came out pretty hot against the Giants but faded late posting a 5-59 box score on 8 targets. Wilson left Week 14’s matchup with the Jets early with a concussion, which is the only contest he’s had less than 5 targets out of Miami’s last 5 games.  The Dolphins host the Bengals in Week 16, in a game that is projected to be close with a solid game total of 46 ½ points.
  1. Justin Watson, WR, Buccaneers, 10%: Injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Scotty Miller leaves the Buccaneers with limited pass catching options in Week 16’s potential shootout with the Texans. That set of circumstances could result in Watson exceeding expectations against the Bucs when season-long fantasy championships are decided.

 

Tight Ends
Note: If Jacob Hollister is available in your league, Seattle plays the Cardinals in Week 16, who have been shredded by tight ends throughout the season.

  1. O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers, 50% FAAB Budget: If you have more reliable options at tight end or simply don’t trust Howard enough to plug him into your lineup with your fantasy championship on the line, we understand.  However, now that Buccaneers wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both going to miss Week 16’s fantastic matchup with the Texans, you don’t want to be facing Howard’s upside if you can help it.  If you’re considering playing Howard, he had a team leading 8 targets in Week 15’s contest against the Lions.  Howard has now had at least 4 catches in each of the last 3 games, giving him a more reliable floor in recent weeks than he’s had through most of the season.  Howard also has a legitimate chance to lead the Buccaneers pass reliant offense in targets, against a vulnerable Texans pass defense, during Week 16’s highest game total (51.5).
  1. Noah Fant, TE, Broncos, 40%: If you can’t get O.J. Howard, Denver’s talented rookie tight end Fant comes with a strong ceiling, as the Broncos face the reeling Lions as 6 ½ point home favorites in Week 16. Fant’s elite usage with Brandon Allen under center has taken a noticeable dip since rookie quarterback Drew Lock took over three games ago.  Fant has made explosive plays with Lock, however, with a 43-yard reception against the Chiefs last week and a 48-yard catch against the Texans the previous week.  If you’re going to play Fant against Detroit, his floor is low due to sporadic usage with Lock at the helm, but he does face a Lions pass defense that just surrendered 458 yards in the air to Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston.
  1. Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins, 30%: Gesicki’s valuable usage continued in Week 15 against the Giants, as he caught 4 passes for 47 yards on 8 targets. Week 16’s contest against the Bengals is projected to be close with the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite, with a solid game total of 46-points.  On the downside, the Bengals have been one of the better defenses against tight ends this season, yielding only 57 receptions to the position on the season.
  1. Ian Thomas, TE, Panthers, 25%: After Thomas’s strong Week 14 performance in Atlanta (16.7 Draft Kings points on 10 targets), Thomas had a more meager output of 2 catches for 23 yards on 4 targets versus Seattle in Week 15. If tight end Greg Olsen misses his third game in a row in Week 16 against the Colts, Thomas would once again be a viable streaming option.
  1. Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans, 25%: Week 16’s matchup where the Titans are 1-point home favorites over the Saints has a 51-point game total, the second highest of the slate. It also comes with some appealing upside for Smith, as Saint cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore, Eli Apple, and the newly acquired Janoris Jenkins will collectively provide a significant challenge for red hot rookie wide receiver J. Brown and former first-round pick Corey Davis.  If you’re considering playing Smith this week, Evan Silva’s matchup column will provide invaluable insight on all of the Titans pass catching options.
  1. Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers, 20%: The Vikings, who have allowed 81 receptions to tight ends on the season, have shut down Graham in 2 of their last 3 meetings. In the other, Graham caught 6-of-8 targets for 95 yards in Week 2 of the 2018 season.  Graham has seen sporadic usage throughout the 2019 season, only posting double-digit PPR points 3 times on the year, making him a dart throw in a fair matchup for those in need at the tight end position.
  1. Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers, 20%: The injuries to stud receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could logically lead to increased opportunities for both J. Howard and Cameron Brate. During Week 15’s aerial assault of the Lions, Brate caught 3-of-7 targets for 37 yards while playing 31-of-71 offensive snaps.  Brate has a path to strong performance in a tremendous Week 16 matchup versus Houston, but that upside does come with role and playing time uncertainties.

 

Defenses
Note: If the Chiefs Defense is available, they would be ranked at the top of this list along with Denver.

  1. Broncos Defense vs Lions, 10% FAAB Budget: Playing Denver here is simple, you’re betting on Vic Fangio’s Broncos defense (6 ½ point home favorites) against Lions third-string quarterback David Blough. To phrase that another way, you’re betting on a well-coached defense playing at home, in altitude, against who is most likely the worst quarterback to start an NFL game this week.  Bad quarterbacks, with injury ravaged skill positions, have been the ingredients to a slate-breaking defense before.
  1. Colts Defense vs Panthers, 8%: There are a few reasons to consider the Colts this week. The first is that they were just embarrassed on Monday Night Football in New Orleans, which means they are likely to play significantly better this week as 7-point home favorites with a real head coach in Frank Reich.  The second reason is that rookie quarterback Will Grier is making his regular season debut with an interim coaching staff at the helm.  In college, Grier was productive and he certainly had his moments in big games.  But his aggressive playstyle sometimes bordered on recklessness, which led to him having a few meltdown type games at West Virginia.
  1. Chargers Defense vs Raiders, 8%: The Raiders only scored 16 points, during their final home game in Oakland, against a Jaguars team that had been blown out in their previous 5 games. The Chargers have disappointed mightily this year, and they were just blown out at home versus the Vikings last week.  But they have high-end talent on both sides of the ball and find themselves in a strong bounce back spot as 5 ½ point home favorites against a reeling Raiders team that is at a talent disadvantage on both sides in this matchup. 
  1. Bengals Defense at Dolphins, 3%: Last week’s score against New England aside, the Bengals defense has been playing better football in recent weeks. In Week 16’s matchup in Miami, they face a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick that regularly takes risks behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines.
  1. Redskins Defense vs Giants, 0%: Whether it’s Daniel Jones or Eli Manning under center for the Giants, you’re looking at sacks and turnover opportunities for the Redskins defense. In general, Washington has been pretty frisky for the last month and they are actually 2 ½ point favorites over the Giants.  With that said, it would also be reasonable to play the other side of this matchup with the Giants defense against Dwayne Haskins.

 

Kickers

  1. Younghoe Koo, K, Falcons, 1% FAAB Budget: In Koo you’re taking an indoor kicker, on a capable offense, with an implied team total of 26 ½ points. 
  1. Dan Bailey, K, Vikings, 1%: With Bailey the positives here are that the Vikings are 4 ½ point home (indoor) favorites, with an implied team total of 24 on Monday Night Football against the rival Packers.

 

Ryan Reynolds has privately analyzed football for investing and betting purposes for nearly two decades.  Ryan began forecasting by using sports cards as a method of investing in individual baseball and football players, a practice he still takes part in today.  Ryan plays DFS, high-volume best ball, and season-long fantasy while directly betting on props, totals, and point spreads that meet his conditions.  Ryan has watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014.