CFB DFS Top Plays: Bowl Week 1 – Saturday Main

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated as necessary.

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Understanding optimal lineups for cash games is extremely important, even if you only play tournaments. Players in our cash pool are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and typically feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. These are the best plays on the board when considering price, context, and positional scarcity. These are usually pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will typically mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options, often in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, we should be much more mindful of ownership. For more tournament content, check out our projections, and Friday’s live show, Establish The Show: The College Years, with Alex Hardin and Sean Newsham.

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: mean projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations”.

They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.

QUARTERBACK

Diego Pavia (NMST – DK $8,600, FD $10,700) – Pavia is the wildcard quarterback option on this slate, as he is coming off an injury last game and has reportedly been very beat up the last month of the season. All reports suggest he is good to go here, but you are paying full price for someone who has a wide range of outcomes (and is reliant on rushing touchdowns to hit his upside). Zion Webb surely will gobble up more ownership (as he should), but playing Pavia with Webb gets you access to the two highest-upside quarterbacks on the slate. However, on the flip side, it forces a fade of using a stud running back in Superflex (which is very in play on this slate). GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.

Zion Webb (JSU – DK $7,000, FD $9,000) – After a half-season merry-go-round of quarterback play, Jacksonville State finally settled on Webb as their QB1 down the stretch. We think Webb is a poor passer, but he is an explosive and willing runner (5.5 yards per carry on 116 attempts, with two games of 20+ carries). He is not without risk of getting pulled, but Jacksonville State has the highest team total and New Mexico State’s defense is pretty rough. His ceiling relative to price is simply unmatched at the position. GPP Recommendation: 0 to 1 pass catchers in stack.

Fernando Mendoza (CAL – DK $6,200, FD $8,600) – Mendoza is a fairly comparable option straight up to Chandler Fields (who will be making his third start of the year) and Behren Morton (who coaches claim is finally 100% healthy), so when you factor in salary, the Cal freshman is the clear value. However, running back is unusually strong for a short slate, so a second quarterback, or even spending down at second quarterback, is far from necessary. In builds that necessitate a cheaper quarterback with viable pass catchers, Mendoza is our preferred option. He’s less appealing of a play on FanDuel. GPP Recommendation: 1 to 2 pass catchers in stack.

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