Large-Field GPP Breakdown: Genesis Scottish Open

Over the past two and a half years of playing classic golf GPPs, I can tell you this much. Large-field golf classic GPPs are not for the faint of heart. The grind is long, the tilt is real, but the payouts when you win them are truly amazing. With only one major left this year and DK posting their Week 1 NFL slate this past week, we are coming to the tail end of golf’s spotlight in DFS (it’s bigger than MLB — sorry to Discord youth Den Den). That being said, there are still ample opportunities to win money. The PGA Tour heads over to Europe this week for the Scottish Open, which should bring new takes from the Discord on who fits “links golf” really well and why those guys are the best plays. I’ll hop into that in a bit, but let’s talk about the John Deere Classic before we go there.

John Deere Classic – Recap

A Sunday that started with a ~1.5% chance to win the Sand Trap based on some sim products out there ended in me losing money. My flag plant, Beau Hossler, was the main cause of this, starting in T21 and finishing in the sub 60s as he posted the literal worst round of the day at +5. J.J Spaun, who was featured in my two best lineups at the time, also had a terrible Sunday, going even par when everyone else was -3 or better. Either way, I continue to give myself chances at the lotto win, and we keep on hustling until variance hits in our favor. There were some wins in Discord, however, as the huge projection on Davis Thompson hit in a big way, as he went -28 on the week to win with ease. While I had an overweight position on Thompson, that wasn’t enough, given his ownership, to make a profit. These weeks are normally the toughest to win for me when the high-priced chalk hits in a big way. Here’s what the winning lineup looked like:

• It featured a pretty basic 9/9/8/8/7/6 lineup construction, much to my chagrin. I did mention on ETG that skipping the $10K range was an absolutely viable way to play this week, but my hope was that some more of the $9K plays would hit big. While this roster construction did make its way into my portfolio, it allowed a lot of lineups out there to be in the running. 
• The lineup had a cumulative ownership of 87%, outside of the 60-80% range that I targeted on the week. Davis Thompson and Eric Cole did come in a little bit higher than their ownership projection, but this was disappointing as a lot of the chalk did hit in a pretty big way. This was the main reason for my disastrous Sunday, where my lower-owned plays failed in a big way while chalk finished the job.

Overall, the John Deere just continues to be an extreme birdie fest. Despite Thompson being the winner at a high price and ownership, I normally do try to lean into variance, especially in the low price ranges at these types of courses. C.T. Pan, Carson Young, Andrew Novak, and Hayden Springer all came out of relatively nowhere to make the top seven here. For me, I’m going to continue to lean on Sky’s Value Report and also some off-the-board plays in these types of events, hoping to hit the nuts. I almost had it with J.J. Spaun and Sami Valimaki this week (who I mentioned on ETG!), but winning was not in the cards.

Genesis Scottish Open – Preview