Last Updated: November 24th at 11:40am ET
Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated once on Sunday morning, if necessary.
You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes. In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context and positional depth is accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.
The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership or game stacks or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low.
With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: Median projection, matchup, upside and value. Ownership is not considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.” They are listed in price descending order (NOT ranked by “best play”). At the bottom, you’ll find suggested rankings by site once salary is accounted for.
Russell Wilson ($6800 DK, $8200 FD) — Eagles defense has improved significantly, but mostly against weak offenses. Wilson’s weapons all have plus one-on-one matchups.
Matt Ryan ($6700 DK, $7900 FD) — We typically prefer to have some rushing equity when paying up at QB. But Ryan’s home matchup against the Bucs’ historically pass funneling defense is a smash.
Jameis Winston ($6200 DK, $7600 FD) — Winston has at least 43 pass attempts in five straight games, averaging a jaw-dropping 48.0 during that span. That volume at middling pricetags is impossible to ignore. Worth reading Brandon Thorn’s take on Atlanta’s defensive resurgence as well.
Baker Mayfield ($5900 DK, $7500 FD) — Baker finally catches a soft matchup after a string of brutal ones. Dolphins are dead last in pass defense DVOA.
Christian McCaffrey ($10500 DK, $10500 FD) — Different spot than last week as Saints DL vs. Falcons OL is a massive mismatch. Saints also allow opponents to run just 60.3 plays per game, 6th-fewest. Still, CMC’s floor/ceiling combo is always in play.
Alvin Kamara ($8200 DK, $8300 FD) — Saints saddled game-flow indendent Kamara up for a career-high 14 first-half touches last week. Panthers have league’s worst DVOA rush defense. An increased role for Latavius Murray is the biggest threat.
Derrick Henry ($6900 DK, $8400 FD) — Quietly elite matchup as the Jags have sunk to 30th in rush defense DVOA. Henry has at least 16 touches in all 10 games this season.
Phillip Lindsay ($5200 DK, $6300 FD) — Broncos said they were going to reinstall Lindsay as their lead back last week and followed through. He played on 65% of the snaps, out-touched Royce Freeman 18-9 and ran a season-high 26 routes. In play due to a weak price-considered week at RB.
Miles Sanders ($5000 DK, $5600 FD) — Jordan Howard (shoulder) not expected to play, but we do expect Jay Ajayi to see snaps this week. And Boston Scott will as well. Still, Sanders projects as the leader of the committee in a far better matchup than the one he had last week.
Michael Thomas ($9300 DK, $9200 FD) — Target volume and catch rate give Thomas the consistency of an elite running back. Look for Sean Payton to get Thomas in the slot plenty so he avoids James Bradberry.
Julio Jones ($8000 DK, $8400 FD) — The nut setup for Julio. Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman are out, the Bucs are a top-3 rush defense, they have arguably the worst set of CBs in the league and Julio is popping in the Buy Low Model.
Odell Beckham ($7000 DK, $7000 FD) — First genuinely good matchup since Week 2 for Odell against the Dolphins’ No. 32 DVOA pass defense.
Calvin Ridley ($6500 DK, $6700 FD) — Ridley flashed his ceiling last week and now gets a significantly better matchup at home against Tampa. Far cheaper on FD but in play on both sites.
N’Keal Harry ($3300 DK) — We’re not expecting Phillip Dorsett (concussion) or Mo Sanu (ankle) to play. That leaves only Julian Edelman, Harry and Jakobi Meyers as healthy wideouts. Harry is the first-round rookie who now projects for 4-6 targets from Tom Brady.
Tim Patrick ($3000 DK) — A DraftKings-specific punt who is expected to play through a minor shoulder issue. Patrick, an intriguing size/speed prospect, came off IR last week and was immediately installed as the no-doubt No. 2 WR wideout last week. Also led Broncos in receiving yards over last season’s final month.
Zach Ertz ($6000 DK, $6100 FD) — Very difficult to fit on DraftKings, but easy to fit on Fanduel. With the Eagles’ WRs a mess, Carson Wentz is locked onto Ertz. That’s nice against a Seattle defense allowing the 6th-most points per game to tight ends.
Darren Waller ($5700 DK, $6200 FD) — Target projection significantly worse than Ertz’s and matchup slightly worse. Still, Waller’s usage and talent remain strong.
Jacob Hollister ($4300 DK, $5800 FD) — With Luke Willson out and Ed Dickson suffering a setback, Hollister’s role is locked in. He’s an athletic pass-catching specialist playing the Will Dissly role.
Noah Fant ($3900 DK, $5100 FD) — Elite usage all year — and especially since Emmanuel Sanders was trade. Also truly elite athleticism. Matchup is a concern as Bills have eliminated tight ends all year.
Dallas Goedert ($3700 DK, $5200 FD) — Tough sell on FD where he’s just $900 less than Ertz. But on DK, you save $2300 and get a talented player running nearly the same number of routes in the same matchup.
Vance McDonald ($3500 DK) — Juju Smith-Schuster is out, boosting the target floor for Vance. He also has one of the best possible matchups against the Bengals.
Steelers ($5000 FD) — Easier to fit on Fanduel. The No. 1 DL/OL mismatch of the week and the Steelers are teeing off on noodle-armed Ryan Finley.
Falcons ($3500 DK, $4300 FD) — Improved pass rush now has a home game against Jameis Winston, who leads entire NFL in pass attempts per game at 40.6. Predictably, he also leads the league in interceptions with four more than any other QB.
Saints ($3300 DK, $4900 FD) — Another DL/OL mismatch with a shaky, mistake-prone quarterback. Kyle Allen flashed his downside last week.
Bengals ($2100 DK) — Not as strong as the Cardinals $1500 punt was last week on DK. But still in play as a site-specific salary saver against Mason Rudolph, who will be without star C Maurkice Pouncey, WR Juju Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner.
|1||Matt Ryan||Matt Ryan|
|2||Baker Mayfield||Russell Wilson|
|3||Jameis Winston||Baker Mayfield|
|4||Drew Brees||Jameis Winston|
|5||Russell Wilson||Drew Brees|
|1||Alvin Kamara||Alvin Kamara|
|2||Derrick Henry||Leonard Fournette|
|3||Miles Sanders||Miles Sanders|
|4||Phillip Lindsay||Derrick Henry|
|5||Le’Veon Bell||Christian McCaffrey|
|6||Brian Hill||Nick Chubb|
|7||Christian McCaffrey||Kareem Hunt|
|1||Julio Jones||Michael Thomas|
|2||Michael Thomas||Julio Jones|
|3||Julian Edelman||Odell Beckham Jr.|
|4||Odell Beckham||Calvin Ridley|
|5||N’Keal Harry||Julian Edelman|
|6||JJ Arcega-Whiteside||Mike Evans|
|7||Calvin Ridley||DJ Moore|
|1||Zach Ertz||Zach Ertz|
|2||Dallas Goedert||Darren Waller|
|3||Darren Waller||Greg Olsen|
|4||Vance McDonald||Jared Cook|
|5||Jacob Hollister||Vance McDonald|