Episode Summary: ETR’s Biggest ADP Stances vs. Market (June 30, 2026)
Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, Jack Miller, and Justin Herzig walk through 15 spots where ETR’s ranks are furthest off market. For the first time in the illustrious history of ETR, they are ahead of market on Derrick Henry — at 15 overall versus an ADP of 20. Jayden Daniels at 54 overall (ADP 69) is Herzig’s highest-drafted quarterback in best ball. And ETR is well below market on Rome Odunze at 76 overall (ADP 59) — Adam addresses the Twitter pushback head-on. Plus a Makai Lemon fade rounds below ADP, why nobody wants to click Steelers like DK Metcalf, Omarion Hampton scares Evan, and a Cooper Kupp buy that has ETR laughing all the way to the bank.
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Key Topics
- ETR ahead of market: Derrick Henry (15 vs. ADP 20), Jayden Daniels (54 vs. 69), DK Metcalf (66 vs. 75), Brock Purdy (83 vs. 97), Jordan Addison and Kyler Murray, Garrett Wilson (29 vs. 39), Cooper Kupp (172 vs. 199).
- ETR behind market: Makai Lemon (104 vs. 88), Rome Odunze (76 vs. 59), Omarion Hampton (21 vs. 15.5), D.J. Moore (55 vs. 46), Michael Wilson (95 vs. 83), Josh Allen (35 vs. 27), Quinshon Judkins, Brian Thomas Jr. (74 vs. 63).
Takeaway #1 (17:02): For the first time in the illustrious history of ETR, they are ahead of market on Derrick Henry
- Adam Levitan: This is embarrassing to say because Derrick Henry has shoved it down ETR’s throat year after year. He has been the truest of true outliers in the model in terms of regressing touchdown rate and yards per carry. It is really hard for the model to realize that Derrick Henry is like a god among humans. This year, ETR is actually ahead of market — at 15 overall against an ADP of 20.
- Justin Herzig: Dirty, shocking, confusing, all those words. Even when comparing Henry to backs two, three, four years ago, we were comparing him to backs expected to get tons of volume too. Today’s NFL has changed — you do not have nearly as many backs with the volume workload we’re expecting from Henry. Uncontested volume monster. No new competition in that backfield. The Ravens have an 11.5 win total. Henry is projected to have the most rushing yards in the league at 1,250.
- Justin Herzig: Fading Henry is a bet on decreasing efficiency at his age. Last year, we did not really see much of a loss in efficiency. Some can be attributed to Lamar Jackson being hurt, missing games, and not playing his best. Henry’s yards after contact actually slightly increased last year. Henry really does fit into that outlier bucket. The question is whether we believe the positive regression story tied to a healthy Lamar. Herzig does. Henry feels like a high-median, high-upside play, specifically for half-PPR formats, and he’s okay for PPR.
Takeaway #2 (5:19): Jayden Daniels at 54 overall is Justin Herzig’s highest-drafted quarterback in best ball
- Justin Herzig: Jayden Daniels is Herzig’s highest-drafted QB right now in best ball. The rookie season was phenomenal — because of the injury last year, people just kind of forgot about it. Biggest difference: no more Kliff Kingsbury. David Blough has been promoted, and his quotes this offseason have been fantastic for Daniels. The offense is going to be an aggressive, balanced attack with more under center than we’ve had in the past.
- Justin Herzig: Under Kingsbury, Daniels was under center for just 32 dropbacks across two seasons — by far the lowest rate in the NFL. Now he is going to have a ton under center, which leads to more play-action. Play-action is one of the most efficient things an offense can do. High-upside opportunities come from both the run game and the passing game. Daniels also fits the roster construction Herzig is looking for in best ball, and pairs really well with Terry McLaurin.
- Evan Silva: Evan is higher than market on Daniels as well. It is easy to draw a straight line for stacking — Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin and Chig Okonkwo. That is a very fun build. Evan has been getting Daniels in drafts. Adam has zero pushback on the take — he has not gotten many messages asking why ETR is so high on Daniels.
Takeaway #3 (8:12): ETR is well below market on Rome Odunze at 76 overall, and Adam addresses the pushback
- Adam Levitan: ETR is at 76 overall against an ADP of 59. Adam has seen some hateful stuff out there. His take is simple — Ben Johnson handpicked Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, and he inherited Rome Odunze, who has a foot injury and, injuries aside, just has not been that good. He’s at 1.3 yards per route run for his career. Adam feels good about being high on Loveland and Burden and down on Odunze.
- Jack: From a projection standpoint, ETR has Burden and Rome pretty close in targets — Burden three targets ahead right now, so a very tight gap. The difference in efficiency is pretty substantial; Rome has been at 7.3 yards per target, 1.33 career yards per route run. For reference, Marvin Harrison Jr. is at 1.61. The difference in public opinion — Harrison being viewed as a complete bust versus Rome as a guy who will kick into high gear in Year 3 — is a big gap. Burden and Loveland have both been significantly better than Rome has ever been at the NFL level. The efficiency gap is really driving the rank.
- Evan Silva: Evan is also below market on Rome and does not think he has drafted him once so far. The foot injury, the Bears’ run-heavy scheme, and Rome getting lost on the outside as the sacrificial X while the passing game runs through the middle with Burden and Loveland on the interior all worry him. Rome could still have a big touchdown year at 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, and Caleb Williams has a chance at a 40-touchdown season. In terms of volume, this offense is going to run through Loveland, Burden, and the run game.
Listen to the Full Episode
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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