6:30 PM ET Game
Detroit @ San Francisco
Team Totals: 49ers 29.5, Lions 22
Jared Goff encounters major NFCCG red flags on the road facing a 49ers defense that tends to shut down passing offenses in the middle of the field with Lions LG Jonah Jackson (knee) unlikely to play and elite C Frank Ragnow (ankle/toe/knee/back) exceedingly hurt. Goff’s 2023 yards-per-pass-attempt average dips from 8.1 at home to 7.1 on the road, while San Francisco’s interior front is loaded with Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Javon Kinlaw inside. Via slot man Amon-Ra St. Brown and All-Pro rookie TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit’s passing attack is built on middle-of-field throws. … I went over on Jahmyr Gibbs’ 22.5 receiving-yards prop because I think the Lions will play this game from behind, and Gibbs can take over as Detroit’s main RB in comeback mode. San Francisco coughed up the NFL’s fifth-most running back receptions (90) this regular season, then six more to Bucs RBs last week. Gibbs’ receiving-yardage totals in the Lions’ first two playoff games were 43 and 40. I expect to see less of David Montgomery here.
I took LaPorta’s under at 48.5 receiving yards after he failed to clear that mark in seven of his last 11 appearances. Only five NFL defenses gave up fewer 2023 fantasy tight end points than the 49ers, while Packers TEs Luke Musgrave (3/14/0) and Tucker Kraft (3/9/1) were quiet against San Francisco last week.
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