The NFL’s worst-kept secret has now been made official: Philadelphia has traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots. We’ve known this marriage was coming for a while (we’ve been projecting Brown on New England all offseason), but the deal had to wait until June 1 for salary cap reasons. Now, it’s official. Let’s break it down from a fantasy standpoint.
A.J. BROWN
- It’s always a big story when a star player changes teams, but realistically, this shouldn’t have any impact on Brown’s value in the market because it was so glaringly obvious he wasn’t going to be an Eagle in 2026.
- Brown’s production dipped last season — his 8.3 yards per target was tied for a career low, his 66.9 yards per game was his lowest since his rookie year, and his target share dipped 3% from 2024 — but he still topped the 1,000-yard mark despite playing just 15 games in the seventh-run-heaviest offense in football (by raw pass rate). Brown turns 29 years old at the end of the month and should benefit from a change of scenery, as he clearly grew exasperated with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense by the end of his tenure.
- New England heavily rotated wide receivers last season, giving Stefon Diggs just a 53.8% seasonal snap rate with no discernible increase in high-leverage games, but the willingness to trade a first-round pick for Brown locks him into an every-snap role. Things are muddy beyond Brown, but the former Eagle will be Drake Maye‘s alpha WR1 in 2026. Brown has had a 27% target share or higher in each of the last three seasons and should be peppered with targets again with the Pats.
- Brown did not move in our rankings after this trade because we were already projecting him as a Patriot, as previously mentioned.
OTHER PATRIOTS PASS CATCHERS
- Romeo Doubs penned a four-year, $68 million deal in free agency that should lock him into the WR2 role. Doubs’ efficiency has increased in each year of his NFL career, peaking at 8.5 yards per target last season, and he’s averaged a respectable 5.5 targets per game over the past three seasons. Brown is the clear WR1 here, and Hunter Henry and the RBs will demand targets as well, but Doubs should have the inside track for WR2 here.
- After that, it gets messy. Demario Douglas still averaged 0.20 targets per route run last year, but he ran a route on only 36% of dropbacks as a pure slot option. Mack Hollins is a strong run blocker who’s likely best as a rotational option. Kayshon Boutte has skipped voluntary offseason workouts, and his future in New England seems uncertain with Brown now on the roster. 2025 third-round pick Kyle Williams had a very quiet rookie season and now has another major obstacle blocking him from a big role. If Boutte is moved, Brown and Doubs likely operate as the clear WR1 and WR2, respectively, with Douglas playing some slot snaps and Hollins rotating in as well.
- Henry had a 16.9% target share in 2025 with the Pats’ WR position in flux. He’s been consistent with 59+ targets in seven straight seasons, but his volume likely takes a big hit after 184 combined targets over the previous two years.
EGALES PASS CATCHERS
- Since we already had Brown on the Pats, none of the Eagles pass catchers moved in our rankings. This trade appeared highly likely all offseason, and Philadelphia telegraphed it even harder when they drafted Makai Lemon in the first round of the NFL Draft after having traded for Dontayvion Wicks in April. They also drafted Eli Stowers in the second round (though that might be more Dallas Goedert-related with Goedert on just a one-year deal).
- In healthy games without Brown over the last two seasons, DeVonta Smith has recorded 45% (2025), 26.3%, and 33.3% target shares. His seasonal target shares were 24.8% and 23.6% in those two seasons, and that was despite competing for targets with Brown. He’s proven capable of handling big target shares despite his slight frame, and his volume has a chance to really explode with Brown out of the picture. Of course, the same concerns with the Eagles’ offense remain — Hurts was inconsistent as a passer last year, and this is still a run-first offense that goes through Saquon Barkley — but Smith could legitimately have one of the highest target shares in football in 2026.
- Similarly, Lemon should immediately have a big role coming off a Biletnikoff-winning season. Wicks never emerged as a full-time player in Green Bay and Marquise Brown may not have much left in the tank, giving the rookie a straightforward path to the WR2 role. Smith obviously showed you can be a highly relevant fantasy option as Hurts’ WR2, but projecting that type of production from a rookie seems presumptuous. Still, the opportunity for Lemon to waltz into a big target share is there.
- Goedert quietly has a 19% target share in two consecutive seasons. He also posted a 29% target share without Brown in Week 3 of the 2024 season and then a 27% share without both Brown and Smith in Week 4, so we’ve seen him record high-volume games sans AJB before. The situation is different now with Lemon, Wicks, and Stowers as additional target competition as well, but the point remains that Goedert has at least flashed a target ceiling. Goedert’s TD rate has been all over the place in recent seasons — he had 11 touchdowns on 82 targets last year after scoring eight on a combined 204 looks from 2022-24 — and that has a monster impact on his fantasy value, but at the very least, he should be in line for another year of solid volume. Stowers poses a threat but is likely slated for a developmental year before potentially taking over for Goedert in 2027.
- Wicks is the WR3 here, but he will be hard to trust barring a Smith/Lemon injury.
