Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
Season-long player props are even softer. Books often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, over the course of a season injuries, rest, benchings all come into play. We can exploit that by leaning heavily toward unders.
The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
Levitan’s Published Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL Season-Long Record: 7-2, +$454
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 112-82, +$1817 (through June 22)
1. TY Hilton receptions
Line: 64.5 catches
Projection: 47.2 catches
Book: PointsBet Illinois
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: June 17
Notes: If you can get action in the state of Illinois, this is clearly a strong bet. Hilton under 64.5 catches is -164 on PointsBet in NJ. Most importantly, Hilton’s reliance on speed is not aging well and the Colts are hell-bent on using a rotation at WR. They’re also getting Parris Campbell back.
2. Derrick Henry rushing yards
Line: 1600.5 yards
Projection: 1794.2 yards
Bet: Under (-112)
Date: June 17
Notes: Yes, we have Henry projected for 194 more yards than this prop. But I’m going IKB (I know better) here as this 1600.5 line does not leave much room for error on Henry. Needing to averaging 94 rush yards per game across 17, he can not afford to miss any due to injury or any due to late-season rest. There’s also room for Tennessee’s passing rate to take a significant spike with Julio Jones and AJ Brown paired.