My goal with every piece of content that I write is to help you understand what you’re getting into with any potential bet that you make. Throughout the season, my goal will be to provide you with a lay of the land as it relates to various awards markets while identifying potential values between sportsbooks. I’ll also be including schedule analysis, as well as some of my stances on various situations as the season progresses. As always, the foundation of my awards process is built off of my annual Who Wins Awards and Why article.
The MVP Race
As we know, only certain factors really matter in the MVP race. We want to bet on a quarterback whose team can realistically contend for the top spot in their conference. Beyond that, what we are really looking for at the end of the day is the quarterback that had the best season out of the top four or so teams in the sport. Touchdowns, QBR, and rating have been the most consistent production-based factors for recent MVP winners.
Matthew Stafford (+800) vs Kyler Murray (+600 Fox Bet to +850 FanDuel)
Stafford couldn’t have really had a better start to his Rams career through the first three games, as he is second in the league in touchdown passes, first in QBR, second in rating, and his 3-0 Rams look like they are the class of the NFC through September. He’s gotten the absolute most out of what is a solid, but unspectacular supporting cast on offense so far and he should be at the head of the MVP race right now. Long-term, my concern for Stafford is the same as it is for every NFC West quarterback, as Stafford still has two division games with the Cardinals, Seahawks, and 49ers while also drawing the Titans at home while heading to Green Bay, Minnesota, and Baltimore. To phrase that another way, Stafford has 10 games against quality opponents left on the schedule. With a home matchup against the Cardinals this week followed by Thursday Night Football in Seattle in Week 5, if Stafford’s Rams come out of that stretch 5-0, he’ll be the standalone favorite in the early MVP race.
Murray has also been exceptional early on as he’s fifth in QBR, sixth in rating, and fifth in touchdown passes while adding another three on the ground as his Cardinals have started the season 3-0. Since we run a reality-based program here, the Cardinals only beat the Vikings in Week 2 because Minnesota missed a game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation. The Cardinals have 12 quality opponents left on the schedule with two games against the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks while hosting the Packers, Panthers, and the Colts while heading to Cleveland, Chicago, and Dallas. To be clear, I love Murray as a talent. When I was evaluating him in college, I wrote notes like, “I’ve never seen anything like him” and “has a shot to be the most talented quarterback of all time (which is something I have only ever written about Aaron Rodgers)”. My concern with Murray’s long-term MVP candidacy is team success, as some of the other true contenders in this race have much softer schedules than Arizona. With that said, if Arizona contends for the top spot in the NFC, it will be because Murray carried them there. That’s always been his appeal as an MVP candidate.
Patrick Mahomes (+650 Fox Bet to +800 BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel) vs Josh Allen (+800 FanDuel to +1000 DraftKings, Fox Bet)
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