Select Page

The 2024 PGA season is here. Get the industry’s best projections

Happy National Championship Day!

We’ve collaborated with our partners at THE SOLVER to cover the College Football National Championship game for Showdown DFS!

 

At ETR, we have:

 

At THE SOLVER (free account required), you’ll be able to access:

  • Full projections
  • Optimizer

 

TOP PLAYS

Given the importance of maximizing raw points, correlation, and uniqueness, we’ve grouped our top plays into three categories: top overall plays, top value plays, and top leverage plays. Our top leverage plays are ones where we identify a player that has a higher chance to be a necessary piece of a winning lineup than ownership projections would indicate.

 

Player Category Notes
Stetson Bennett Overall We expect Bennett to check in with the slate’s highest ownership, and for good reason. As 12.5-point favorites with a 37.75-point team total, Bennett possesses one of the best floor/ceiling combos Monday night. Look no further than the 36.1-DraftKings-point performance last week to visualize his slate-winning upside.
Brock Bowers Overall Slightly more inconsistent in 2022 than we’ve grown to expect, Bowers came on strong in the second half of the season. He’s generated double-digit DraftKings points in 4-of-5 games, scoring three touchdowns during that span. Now fellow TE Darnell Washington is questionable entering Monday night’s contest, solidifying Bowers’ role. In last week’s semifinal, Bowers played on 61-of-62 offensive snaps, but with Washington potentially sidelined, Bowers could be featured when Bennett is forced to drop back.
Max Duggan Overall Duggan is similar to Bennett in that he’s able to find the end zone both on the ground (eight rushing TDs in 2022) and through the air (32 passing TDs). He should see nearly 40% of rushing usage in this one and is projected to throw it 32 times.
Quentin Johnston Overall Johnston is a big-bodied athletic specimen of the similar mold of Marvin Harrison Jr. who just tore up this UGA defense to the tune of over 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns. With a projected 30%+ target rate in this game and a game script that will favor the pass, Johnston could be in line for a huge game.
Adonai Mitchell Value Mitchell has been injured for the majority of the season but had the game-winning touchdown in the win against Ohio State. He saw the most snaps of any Bulldogs WR, making him the most popular value play on the slate.
Arian Smith Value Another injury-riddled Bulldog, Smith has incredible speed and big-play ability. He went for 100 yards against Ohio State on just three targets. UGA likes to rotate their WR3/4, so there is some risk in this play compared to Mitchell, but he comes with a higher ceiling.
Taye Barber Value Barber is a big-play threat every time he touches the football as seen by his 11.4 YPT in 2022. If Johnston is doubled then Barber will be relied upon to stretch the field for the Horned Frog offense.
Kenny McIntosh (CPT) Leverage McIntosh will be a popular choice on this slate overall, but using him in your Captain spot is a nice way to differentiate from the field. The game script favors UGA’s running back group and you may remember: Bennett only threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s National Championship game, a 15-point win over Alabama.
Darius Davis Leverage Davis has the ability to score in multiple ways as evidenced by his five receiving and two punt return TDs on the season. Coming in at lower ownership, he makes sense as a tournament play.
Emari Demarcado Leverage If Kendre Miller is out for this one, Demercado immediately finds himself in a position to see roughly 55% of the team’s rushing usage. This UGA defense is built different, but he did run for 150 yards and a touchdown against a stout Michigan defense last week.
Kearis Jackson and Dominick Blaylock Dart Throws These two UGA WRs are the cheapest among the five battling it out for WR3 snaps in this matchup. Both saw a target and 11+ passing snaps last week and will just need the chips to fall right to be in a potential winning lineup.  

 

STACK IDEAS

CPT Stetson Bennett, at least (2) Georgia Pass Catchers – Bennett will be a popular captain choice on the slate, and he likes to spread it out, so a way to differentiate will be using two or even three pass catchers in those lineups.

CPT Kenny McIntosh, Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers If Georgia goes up early and relies on the running game, McIntosh has the upside to be a somewhat contrarian CPT option.

CPT Daijun Edwards, Kenny McIntosh, Quentin Johnston – Georgia uses up to three running backs, with McIntosh and Edwards being the primary two.  Edwards does enough in the passing game to be considered as a good tournament CPT option, and in a game script where Georgia crushes on the ground, you’ll want to correlate that with Quentin Johnson’s pass catching ability.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

Rule 1

We think stacking CPT Stetson Bennett is more likely to need two pass catchers in FLEX, whereas Duggan has routes to getting there with just one receiver because of his rushing ability.

 

Rule 2

It’s possible to have all three Georgia RBs get there in a game like this, but the chances are low, so we prefer maxing two out of the three.

 

Rule 3

In a Georgia onslaught, we think the production will be spread out amongst skill players, so we’d want to captain Bennett more often than not in those scenarios.

 

Rule 4

If Georgia is getting it done on the ground, we’d want to correlate that with TCU’s top WR play, who is likely to get extended looks playing from behind.

 

These are just some guidelines/examples of what we think people should think about when setting showdown rules. We encourage everyone to get creative and try to differentiate from the field in thoughtful ways.