Strength in Numbers: Actionable Week 14 Stats

 

We’re going to get a lot of stuff wrong, but sifting through usage metrics can help us work through what matters and what doesn’t. That’s the goal of this article: to break down the most actionable takeaways from each week in a concise, numbers-filled format and work through what’s important. Let’s get right to it.

 

D’Onta Foreman retakes RB1 role in first game back after ankle injury

Foreman missed the last game after injuring his ankle on the Bears’ first drive in Week 11, but he returned against Detroit and immediately reassumed RB1 duties. Foreman played 55% of snaps in Chicago’s Week 14 win and controlled 11 of 15 RB carries (D.J. Moore also had three carries), while Khalil Herbert got three carries and Roschon Johnson had one. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke highlighted that Foreman played 37 of 50 early-down snaps, a fairly dominant number. Johnson unsurprisingly got the nod on passing downs, playing 12 of 15 third-down snaps and both snaps in the 2-minute drill. Despite that, Johnson actually ran the fewest routes among Bears RBs (Foreman, Herbert, and Johnson), but that will likely change in future weeks considering he’s playing when the Bears are clearly passing.

Chicago’s backfield has been tumultuous all season. Foreman was a healthy scratch early in the season and is now the clear RB1. Herbert out-carried Johnson 16-6 in Week 11 when Foreman got hurt, then played well behind the rookie — even in rushing situations — in Week 12. Things could easily change here with no warning, but Foreman has been the primary RB1 over the past two months when available, and the Bears’ Week 14 RB deployment reinforces that. Johnson has spent much of the year as the primary pass-catching back — Week 12 was an outlier compared to his usage in every other game — and that’s exactly how Chicago utilized him on Sunday. Herbert appears to be the odd man out with the coaching staff preferring Foreman on early downs and Johnson on passing downs. He’ll likely still get a few touches every game, but he needs a Foreman injury to have any hope of a consistent role. And even then, the Bears could easily turn to Johnson to fill that void. Foreman is a script-dependent flex option, while Herbert and Johnson are irrelevant for fantasy purposes.

 

Chuba Hubbard dominates touches again in second game without Frank Reich

In five games called by Thomas Brown (rather than Frank Reich), Hubbard is out-carrying Miles Sanders 68-28 and out-snapping him 199-103. Hubbard’s 78% snap share in Week 13 was a season-high mark, and his 23 carries were his second-highest total of the season — behind only last week. The Panthers’ decision to fire Reich has catapulted Hubbard’s workload to new heights. Hubbard also ran 24 routes on 43 Bryce Young dropbacks vs. New Orleans, while Sanders ran just five. In short, Carolina is using Hubbard as a three-down workhorse, which makes him a viable fantasy starter despite playing on arguably the worst offense in the NFL.

This backfield has been among the most volatile in the league this season, but Brown calling plays has steadied the ship a little bit. Still, Sanders was the more effective runner on Sunday, averaging 7.7 yards per carry mostly due to a 48-yard second-half run. Hubbard grinded his way to 87 yards at 3.8 yards per carry. This is another backfield that could shift dramatically at any time, but Hubbard is a volume-dependent fantasy starter for the moment. He does have only two targets in two games since Reich got fired despite fairly dominant snap shares, but one would expect the receiving volume to return to at least a tolerable level given that he is running a route on a strong percentage of Young’s dropbacks.