The Super Bowl is a celebration of sorts, with a massive menu and a lot of fun bets. Below you’ll find props our staff likes, but isn’t necessarily +EV. It’s stuff we can get a good sweat on. Enjoy!
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Name: Adam Levitan, Former King GPP Bro
Prop: Who will catch a pass first, Isiah Pacheco or Miles Sanders?
Bet: Isiah Pacheco -130
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Miles Sanders is effectively a stone zero in the passing game. He has a total of four targets in his last six games. He was targeted just 26 times in the regular season despite playing 671 snaps (.03 targets/snap). Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco is coming off a six-target game. With Jerick McKinnon seemingly banged up, plus all the wide receiver injury issues for the Chiefs, Pacheco’s pass-game role is trending up.
Name: Stephen Krupka, Digital Media Team
Prop: Color of Gatorade Poured on Winning Head Coach
Bet: Blue +400
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Last year, I wrote about why blue Gatorade was the bet at +400. One year later and nothing has changed. Here’s why we’re running it back: According to a former Gatorade executive in an interview with The Athletic, the Gatorade used in the winning bath is not only selected by Gatorade itself, but it is also intentionally randomized. So, how are we to make an educated bet? Well, let’s take a look at current “Winning Bath” trends. While “Orange” (+350) has won five of the last 13 years, “Blue” has been the winning color in three of the last four years and in four of the last eight. Before 2015, however, “Blue” had NEVER won in data dating back to 2001. The growing popularity of Blue Gatorade in the U.S. is further confirmed by Gatorade itself, as a representative of the company cited internal sales data in December of 2020 naming “Cool Blue” as the most popular flavor of Gatorade in America. The full rankings? 1. Cool Blue 2. Fruit Punch 3. Lemon Lime 4. Glacier Freeze 5. Orange. If you’re not a Gatorade fanatic, you probably missed this very important detail in that Top 5. “Glacier Freeze”, the fourth-most popular flavor, is ALSO blue. So, if Cool Blue isn’t the flavor used in the winning bath, you could still get bailed out by Glacier Freeze. In short, Blue is the bet at +400 because it’s the most popular color of Gatorade in the USA and offers multiple paths to cashing.
Name: Justin Herzig, Best Ball Grinder
Prop: Anytime TD
Bet: Boston Scott
Book: FanDuel, +550
Notes: Boston Scott is on fire the past three games, scoring in all three. The touches inside the 10-yard line have been fairly evenly split among the backfield, with Miles Sanders and Boston Scott each having five, and Kenneth Gainwell having four (two rushes and two targets). With Miles Sanders at +120 and Kenneth Gainwell at +330, we’re riding the hot hand and taking the value with Scott. And if you want to make a fun real-time bet with friends, see what kind of odds you can get on Boston Scott scoring a 3-yard rushing TD in the Super Bowl. Why? In the last three games, the Eagles have run three plays from the 3-yard line. All three of them were Boston Scott rushes, with two successful for a touchdown.
Name: Pat Thorman, Mayor of Narrative Street
Prop: MVP
Bet: Travis Kelce
Book: DraftKings, +1200
Notes: The MVP will most likely be either Patrick Mahomes (+125) or Jalen Hurts (+120), as quarterbacks are the pick more than half the time. If we’re thirsty for better odds, however, no one stands out more prominently than Travis Kelce (+1200). He’s clearly his offense’s top target — a profile that has taken home two of the last four MVPs. He has at least one touchdown in four straight contests and has hit paydirt 15 times in his last 14 playoff games. The Eagles’ defense hasn’t surrendered much production to Kelce’s position, but they haven’t faced any high-end tight ends either. What could be more fun than watching Greg Olsen break down how the best receiving tight end ever is constantly open — before the Kelce Bowl is fittingly capped with Travis winning MVP?
Name: Anthony Amico, King Nit
Prop: Yards of Patrick Mahomes’ First TD Pass
Bet: UNDER 10.5 -110
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Mahomes has not hit for many long scores this year without Tyreek Hill, but the Chiefs also pass so much in the red zone that it leads to a lot of short touchdowns. Just 14 of Mahomes’ 45 TD passes this year have been longer than 10 yards (31.1%). Over the past three seasons, 62.2% of his passing TDs have been 10 yards or less (-165 odds). Note that historically this would still be a play on FanDuel (-150) and Caesars (u9.5 -125).
Name: Ryan Schwepfinger, NBA Projections Team
Prop: What Will Be More, Fred VanVleet Points + Assists on 2/12 or Chiefs Points?
Bet: Fred VanVleet Points + Assists -130
Book: Caesars
Notes: If corporate is going to let the NBA guys weigh in here, I figured I might as well stay on brand and give out a cross-sport prop that caught my eye. As I write this, the Chiefs’ implied team total on most books is 24.5. On the season, VanVleet is averaging 26.2 points + assists per game. Ok, small edge — but there are a few reasons why I’m comfortable drinking this juice. First, Toronto is playing the Detroit Pistons at home on Super Bowl Sunday, one of the best matchups in the league for opposing point guards. Second, and here’s the real kicker — the NBA trade deadline is Thursday, and the struggling Raptors are expected to be one of the league’s biggest sellers. I need to qualify this by saying that VanVleet, who can be a free agent this offseason, might very well be traded himself. If that happens, take a void and move on (yes, I actually checked with Cs’ support — this bet would void if he is traded anywhere, even to a team also playing on Sunday). But imagine a world where he stays put. By all accounts, OG Anunoby is the most likely Raptor to go. This season, in 10 games without OG, FVV averages 33 points + assists. Gary Trent Jr. is also a candidate to be traded — FVV averages 28 points + assists in six games without him. Without both of them, he averages 36.5 PA in two games. And what if Toronto goes nuclear and trades Pascal Siakam? Throw in the fact that Mahomes is on a bad ankle against a great defense, and I think there’s enough upside for VanVleet to clear whatever PA number he needs if he suits up against the Pistons, at home, without one or more of his high-usage teammates.
Name: Jack Miller, NFL Projections/Props
Prop: Aliyah Boston Points + Rebounds or Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards
Bet: Aliyah Boston Points + Rebounds -140
Book: Caesars
Notes: The likely No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 WNBA Draft and one of the most dominant players in women’s college basketball, Aliyah Boston is the unquestioned leader of the top-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks. She averages 13.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game — perhaps somewhat underwhelming with no additional context given her reputation as the face of women’s college hoops. However, she’s only played 25.0 minutes per game on the season as her Gamecocks have absolutely pummeled opponents en route to their perfect record. Against No. 5 UConn on Sunday, Feb. 5, Boston played 39-of-40 minutes, scored 26 points, and grabbed 11 boards as South Carolina held on for a 4-point victory to remain undefeated. Boston likely won’t play that much on Thursday against Auburn, but you better believe she’ll play as much as she can handle against No. 3 LSU on Sunday. It’s a difficult matchup against an elite team, but that is more than negated by the increased minutes she’ll play in a must-win game for the Gamecocks. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon was out-routed 26-16 by Isiah Pacheco in the AFC Conference Championship game and boasts a receiving yards prop of just 20.5 on Caesars right now. Boston averages 23.5 PR per game and should see far more playing time than usual against LSU on Super Bowl Sunday.
Name: Ryan Fernandez, Digital Media Team
Prop: Over 71.5 Receiving Yards -115
Bet: A.J. Brown
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Nothing cute, time to get down to business. The squeaky wheel remains ungreased. The Eagles made quick work of the G-Men and apparent voodoo curse recipient, the 49ers. Which means Arthur Juan is unfed and due. Taking the narratives away, A.J. Brown is Terrell Owens 2.0, someone that went for 9/122/0 in a Super Bowl on a broken leg. A.J. has zero broken legs (usually the first thing I look for in a prop) and isn’t exactly facing the same caliber of defense. Kansas City finished as the 23rd-ranked pass defense and has given up more than 71.5 receiving yards to opposing teams’ WR1s in 12-of-19 games this season. Few WRs in the NFL possess the catch-and-run explosiveness that A.J. has and him leading the game in scrimmage yards at +300 is very much in play too.
Name: John Nannetti, Summary Designer
Prop: Player to make First Reception
Bet: Isiah Pacheco +1400
Book: DraftKings
Notes: What can I say, I am a degenerate. A lot has to go right for this to hit, but hear me out. The toughest part is the coin toss. IF Kansas City gets the ball first, I think Pacheco is in a really good spot. Kelce obviously has the best KC odds at +550, but the Eagles might also look to neutralize Kelce, possibly opening the door for Pacheco for the first reception. I think that K.C. will look to get banged-up Mahomes a few easy, earlier completions. A check down or a short screen to Pacheco could set up the big early W. The Chiefs had a similar first series in the AFC Championship, going with a first-down run to Pacheco, and then a second-down short pass to Pacheco for 15 yards. Do I have good data to back this up? No. Can I turn $10 into $150? Likely not. Will I sweat it for the first minute of the game? Absolutely.
Name: Michael Heery, Data Viz assistant
Prop: Each team to score 1+ touchdown in each half and each team to score 1+ field goal in each half
Bet: Yes +1100
Book: DraftKings
Notes: This is a pick that is sadly not supported by the same statistical and analytic rigor as Stephen’s Gatorade pick, but it’s one that could give a good fun run out and a nice payout if it lands! I think it is viable under a number of different game outcome scenarios and doesn’t necessarily require a full-scale shootout to land. Getting a fun sweat out of this bet does really depend on at least getting the first-half requirements met. If that happens, it should hopefully set up an enjoyable second half where a little cautious fourth-down decision-making might work in our favor.
Name: Patrick Barnes, YouTube Guy
Prop: Longest fourth-down conversion 2.5 yards
Bet: Over -105
Book: DraftKings
Notes: This season, the Chiefs and Eagles had a 76.92% and 71.43% success rate in converting fourth downs, respectively. Despite having the lead for most games, the Eagles attempted a fourth-down conversion 32 times (fourth highest). This would have cashed in the first four minutes of the Eagles-49ers game, as Jalen Hurts delivered a 30-yard pass to DeVonta Smith on 4th and 3. In a game I expect to be close throughout, or where we could see the Eagles even playing from behind, they may be more aggressive. On the other hand, the Chiefs had only 12 attempts, but in the last two Super Bowls featuring Mahomes, they went for it on fourth down three times each game. Teams tend to be more aggressive in the Super Bowl, and I think we will see a conversion longer than 4th and 2.
Name: Ryan Reynolds, ETR Awards Analyst
Prop: First sack
Bet: Josh Sweat +1000
Book: DraftKings
Notes: I want to bet on the Eagles’ talented, and extremely deep, pass rush in some fashion. The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is on the interior, otherwise, I’d have Javon Hargrave at +1100 in this spot. Haason Reddick is a solid value at +500 on PointsBet, but I prefer Sweat at +1000 with the expectation that he’ll see a fair amount of Chiefs right tackle Andrew Wylie in one-on-one situations.
Name: Jackson Kane, Copy Editor
Prop: Race to 20 Rushing Yards
Bet: Jalen Hurts +270
Book: DraftKings
Notes: The tricky part of this is Hurts being the first player to 20 rushing yards. However, he reached or exceeded the 20-yard benchmark in 12-of-15 regular-season games and in both playoff games to this point. He’s one of just 16 players to have seven or more 20+ yard gains on the ground this season — and he also has one 40+ yard scamper on his 2022-23 résumé. Kansas City’s pass rush is graded sixth overall by PFF, so the possibility for undesigned scrambles isn’t out of the realm of possibility either. Capable of picking up 20 yards on any given run, I like betting on Hurts for this.
Name: Michael Leone, Spreadsheet Virgin
Prop: Score 2+ TDs
Bet: Justin Watson +7000
Book: DraftKings
Notes: This is available on BetMGM for +8000, but they are known for extremely low limits. Watson is a high-aDOT player with good size, both of which lend themselves to a higher-than-average TD rate for a WR. With the Chiefs potentially posting an enormous pass rate despite a slew of injuries to their WRs (Mecole Hardman OUT, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney QUESTIONABLE), this longshot bet has life.
Name: Alex Levy, Research Team & The Rundown
Prop: Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer, Jersey Number of Last Touchdown Scorer
Bet: OVER 11.5 (+105)
Book: DraftKings
Notes: It’s the Super Bowl, which means it’s time to get a little weird and have a little fun, aka cut loose and place some jersey number bets. Travis Kelce (87), Miles Sanders (26), and Dallas Goedert (88) are our best options to cash here, and you can always sprinkle a bit on Jalen Hurts (1), Isiah Pacheco (10), or A.J. Brown (11) if they scare you. The +105 line gives us implied odds of about 48.7%, which the below table of possibly-correct math shows is about right, but if you’ve played any Showdown DFS this season, you know that big men score in prime time. Fire away on both bets if you’re feeling frisky and get ready to laugh your way to the bank when Jody Fortson (88) and Jake Stoll (89) ruin everyone else’s first/last TD bets.
