Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beaten at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
IMPORTANT: The lines for the bets you see below will almost certainly be gone. In order to get the lines as we release them, you must be subscribed to our Props Package and be connected to our subscriber-only Telegram channel.
Levitan’s Published Player Prop History
2019 NFL In-Season Record: 50-36, +$963
2020 NFL In-Season Record: 55-34, +$1,907
2020-21 NBA In-Season Record: 111-82, +$1,817
2021 NFL In-Season Record: 216-118: +$8,572
2021-22 NBA In-Season Record: 751-495, +$20,348
2022 NFL In-Season Record: 215-166, +$2,759 (through Week 13)
2022 NBA In-Season Record: 232-145, +$7,134 (through December 7)
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop. And risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Derek Carr passing attempts
Line: 34.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 33.5 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-108)
Date: December 8, 11:01am ET
Notes: The Raiders should be able to lean on Josh Jacobs and the ground game vs. a faltering Rams squad.
2. Tyler Higbee receiving yards
Line: 30.5 yards
Mean Projection: 29.8 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 8, 12:11am ET
Notes: Higbee’s routes have been way down in recent weeks and the LA passing offense isn’t exactly high-octane.
3. Brandon Powell receiving yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 16.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-125)
Date: December 8, 7:44am ET
Notes: Powell will likely rotate with Tutu Atwell and Lance McCutcheon for WR3 snaps and routes.
4. Jared Goff pass attempts
Line: 34.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 36.3 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-105)
Date: December 9, 10:03am ET
Notes: Goff is 5-2 to the over against this line at home this season.
5. Russell Wilson passing yards
Line: 212.5 yards
Mean Projection: 236.6 yards
Book: Caesars (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-108)
Date: December 9, 11:04am ET
Notes: Wilson has struggled this season, but is still 7-4 against this line on the year. Currently our projection does not include Courtland Sutton, whose status is unknown.
6. Josh Allen carries
Line: 7.5 carries
Mean Projection: 8.3 carries
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+105)
Date: December 9, 2:43pm ET
Notes: Largely a projections play, as we have more than a carry over this number and get it at plus money.
7. Cade Otton receiving yards
Line: 20.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.3 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-110)
Date: December 9, 4:00pm ET
Notes: With Cameron Brate off the injury report, Otton will likely go back to sharing TE1 duties.
8. Brock Purdy pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 32.3 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-120)
Date: December 9, 4:28pm ET
Notes: The 49ers let Purdy throw last week, and the entire market is above this line.
9. Daniel Bellinger receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.4 receptions
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+102)
Date: December 9, 5:33pm ET
Notes: Bellinger immediately returned to an every-down role in his first game back after an eye injury.
10. Mark Andrews receiving yards
Line: 60.5 yards
Mean Projection: 52.3 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 9, 8:45pm ET
Notes: Andrews has shown a strong rapport with Tyler Huntley, but we came up short of this line despite being aggressive on his target share compared to his seasonal average.
11. Dak Prescott pass attempts
Line: 31.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 29.2 attempts
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 9, 9:35pm ET
Notes: Dak has been extremely efficient this season, only surpassing this mark in one of his six full games. The Cowboys are massive favorites against the Texans, so we expect Dak’s pass volume to remain muted again this week.
12. Nick Chubb rush yards
Line: 72.5 yards
Mean Projection: 87 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 9, 10:12pm ET
Notes: Chubb is 9-3 to the over on this line in 2022, and the Bengals are more vulnerable on the ground defensively.
13. Derrick Henry rush yards
Line: 84.5 yards
Mean Projection: 103.9 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 9, 10:22pm ET
Notes: The Big Dog has had amazing success against the Jaguars in his career and the Titans will continue to load him up with carries despite his inefficiency over the last month.
14. Tua Tagovailoa pass yards
Line: 276.5 yards
Mean Projection: 309.2 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-114)
Date: December 9, 11:01pm ET
Notes: This line was 10 yards higher on other books and Tua has shown amazing efficiency this season in favorable matchups and gets another one this week against a depleted Chargers defense.
15. Mac Jones passing yards
Line: 217.5 yards
Mean Projection: 245.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-115)
Date: December 10, 8:39am ET
Notes: Jones should be able to move the ball against the Cardinals’ defense.
16. Austin Hooper receptions
Line: 2.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.2 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+105)
Date: December 10, 11:31am ET
Notes: Hooper has hit this number in four straight games, and the Jaguars could pressure Tennessee to score.
17. D’Andre Swift receptions
Line: 3.5 receptions
Mean Projection: 3.8 receptions
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (+125)
Date: December 10, 12:18pm ET
Notes: Swift has done this in his last two games as his workload has increased, and the Vikings have given up 9+ RB receptions in three straight contests.
18. Daniel Jones pass attempts
Line: 28.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 30.2 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-135)
Date: December 10, 4:32pm ET
Notes: With Saquon Barkley’s health in question, Jones may have to pass more.
19. Dameon Pierce rushing plus receiving yards
Line: 90.5 yards
Mean Projection: 81.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-120)
Date: December 10, 6:08pm ET
Notes: This game has the potential to get out of hand, and Pierce has not been featured as a receiver.
20. Tyquan Thornton receiving yards
Line: 28.5 yards
Mean Projection: 26.9 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 10, 6:28pm ET
Notes: The biggest role change without Jakobi Meyers likely belongs to Nelson Agholor. Thornton has not played much in the slot.
21. Samaje Perine rushing yards
Line: 27.5 yards
Mean Projection: 17.6 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-113)
Date: December 10, 7:28pm ET
Notes: The line assumes Perine maintains some kind of role with Joe Mixon back, leaving lots of paths to failure.
22. Miles Sanders rush attempts
Line: 13.5 attempts
Mean Projection: 15.1 attempts
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Over (-110)
Date: December 11, 8:47am ET
Notes: The Eagles are big favorites and could see an even lower PROE than we are projecting.
23. Kenyan Drake rushing + receiving yards
Line: 23.5 yards
Mean Projection: 11.9 yards
Book: FanDuel (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-114)
Date: December 11, 12:22pm ET
Notes: Drake slots in as the RB3 with J.K. Dobbins active.
24. Austin Ekeler receiving yards
Line: 45.5 yards
Mean Projection: 42.6 yards
Book: DraftKings (Sign Up here)
Bet: Under (-115)
Date: December 9, 8:40pm ET
Notes: Mike Williams is off the injury report and Keenan Allen is back at full strength. While Ekeler has been exceptional in the passing game, we think his role could get reduced with everyone healthy.
