Showdown Breakdown: Bears at Vikings

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY & TRENDS

We’ve spent the past four seasons gathering a large enough sample to confidently review contest results to identify where we have an edge and how we can improve our overall lineup-building process. We recommend reviewing this article to understand macro concepts suited for beating large-field showdown tournaments. There you’ll find our thoughts on proper captain selection, optimal roster construction, and some ideas on how to ensure your lineups aren’t duplicated. Like most DFS formats, the best showdown lineups are created where uniqueness, optimal correlation, and max projected points meet. We’ll continually update this section with the latest showdown strategy and trends as the 2024 season progresses. Below you can review winning lineups from the 2020-23 seasons to better familiarize yourself with winning roster construction.

Historical Winning Lineups

Note: ‘Total ownership’ is calculated using each players’ Total Ownership % (Flex+CPT) from the flagship GPP on DraftKings

Packers at Bears ($47700 Salary Used) (191.66% Total Ownership): Captain Allen Robinson, Aaron Rodgers, Tarik Cohen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, Packers DST – Lineup entered (3) times

Steelers at Patriots ($46100) (223.0%): Captain Tom Brady, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Stephen Gostkowski, Rex Burkhead – (1)

Texans at Saints ($49900) (244.79%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Wil Lutz – (13)

Broncos at Raiders ($49000) (240.32%): Captain Josh Jacobs, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Tyrell Williams, Darren Waller, Brandon McManus – (1)

Buccaneers at Panthers ($48500) (225.70%): Captain Chris Godwin, Cam Newton, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore, Greg Olsen, Joey Slye – (1)

Eagles at Falcons ($49300) (253.86%): Captain Julio Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins

Browns at Jets ($48300) (237.27%): Captain Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb, Le’Veon Bell, Browns DST, Austin Seibert, D’ernest Johnson – (4)

Titans at Jaguars ($48600) (258.3%): Captain Marcus Mariota, Leonard Fournette, Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark Jr., Jaguars DST, Adam Humphries – (1)

Rams at Browns ($49700) (238.92%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Greg Zuerlein –

Bears at Redskins ($50000) (235.64%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Case Keenum, Terry McLaurin, Bears DST, Paul Richardson Jr., Taylor Gabriel – (11)

Eagles at Packers ($47300) (245.93%): Captain Jordan Howard, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Carson Wentz, Jimmy Graham, Geronimo Allison – (4)

Cowboys at Saints ($47800) (231.88%): Captain Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST, Wil Lutz, Saints DST – (3)

Bengals at Steelers ($48700) (198.22%): Captain James Conner, Mason Rudolph, Joe Mixon, Diontae Johnson, Steelers DST, Jaylen Samuels – (1)

Rams at Seahawks ($50000) (273.06%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Chris Carson, Gerald Everett, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Greg Zuerlein – (748)

Colts at Chiefs ($47200) (241.73%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Colts DST, Byron Pringle – (1)

Browns at 49ers ($46400) (239.74%): Captain Matt Breida, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, 49ers DST – (4)

Giants at Patriots ($46700) (322.95%): Captain Patriots DST, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, James White, Brandon Bolden – (53)

Steelers at Chargers ($44700) (198.69%): Captain James Conner, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Steelers DST – (1)

Lions at Packers ($49800) (265.43%): Captain Matt Prater, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Kerryon Johnson, Jamaal Williams – (23)

Chiefs at Broncos ($47000) (225.37%): Captain Chief DST, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton, Royce Freeman – (1)

Eagles at Cowboys ($46300) (231.89%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Cowboys DST, Dallas Goedert, Brett Maher – (4)

Patriots at Jets ($48800) (242.5%): Captain Patriots DST, Julian Edelman, Sony Michel, James White, Phillip Dorsett, Demaryius Thomas – (73)

Redskins at Vikings ($49900) (262.92%): Captain Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Vikings DST, Adrian Peterson, Dan Bailey, Dustin Hopkins – (343)

Packers at Chiefs ($49600) (244.78%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Moore, Jamaal Williams, Damien Williams, Mecole Hardman – (2)

Dolphins at Steelers ($49700) (259.67%): Captain JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Diontae Johnson, Allen Hurns, Chris Boswell – (8)

49ers at Cardinals ($48800) (252.12%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Andy Isabella – (2)

Patriots at Ravens ($49600) (236.43%): Captain Julian Edelman, Lamar Jackson, James White, Mark Ingram III, Mohamed Sanu, Nick Boyle – (1)

Cowboys at Giants ($48200) (215.3%): Captain Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Daniel Jones, Cowboys DST, Jason Witten, Brett Maher – (3)

Chargers at Raiders ($49600) (284.1%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Philip Rivers, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Raiders DST – (12)

Vikings at Cowboys ($49600) (215.38%): Captain Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. – (3)

Seahawks at 49ers ($49900) (240.23%): Captain Chris Carson, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers DST, Deebo Samuel, Jacob Hollister – (24)

Steelers at Browns ($49100) (219.24%): Captain Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Samuels, Mason Rudolph, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, Browns DST – (2)

Bears at Rams ($49800) (290.15%): Captain Todd Gurley II, Cooper Kupp, Mitchell Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Rams DST, Tarik Cohen – (59)

Chiefs at Chargers ($49500) (182.25%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, Keenan Allen, Philip Rivers, Hunter Henry, LeSean McCoy – (14)

Colts at Texans ($49900) (258.29%): Captain DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller, Jonathan Williams, Eric Ebron, Ka’imi Fairbairn – (144)

Packers at 49ers ($46200) (217.84%): Captain George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Davante Adams, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, Chase McLaughlin – (1)

Ravens at Rams ($49800) (196.98%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Marquise Brown, Robert Woods, Willie Snead IV, Tyler Higbee – (15)

Saints at Falcons: Captain Matt Ryan, Saints DST, Russell Gage, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Calvin Ridley – (1)

Patriots at Texans ($49400) (256.39%): Captain Duke Johnson, Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson, Julian Edelman, James White, Kenny Stills – (74)

Vikings at Seahawks ($49700) (251.83%): Captain Rashaad Penny, Russell Wilson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, Kirk Cousins, David Moore – (22)

Cowboys at Bears ($49400) (232.33%): Captain Mitchell Trubisky, Ezekiel Elliott, Allen Robinson II, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, J.P. Holtz – (2)

Giants at Eagles ($47000) (200.3%): Captain Darius Slayton, Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Eli Manning, Sterling Shepard, Boston Scott – (1)

Jets at Ravens ($49300) (212.82%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II, Mark Andrews, Jamison Crowder, Seth Roberts, Miles Boykin – (15)

Bills at Steelers ($47100) (262.26%): Captain Bills DST, Josh Allen, James Conner, John Brown, James Washington, Nick Vannett – (4)

Colts at Saints ($47500) (248.77%): Captain Michael Thomas, Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Wil Lutz, Taysom Hill, Jordan Wilkins – (1)

Rams at 49ers ($49600) (241.43%): Captain Tyler Higbee, Jared Goff, George Kittle, Robert Woods, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks – (4)

Chiefs at Bears ($49400) (252.12%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, Javon Wims – (7)

Packers at Vikings ($47600) (202.83%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Packers DST, Mason Crosby, Ameer Abdullah

49ers at Seahawks ($49900) (198.36%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Russell Wilson, Raheem Mostert, D.K. Metcalf, Travis Homer, Kyle Juszczyk

Titans at Patriots ($49000) (218.14%): Captain Derrick Henry, Julian Edelman, James White, Rex Burkhead, Titans DST, Nick Folk – (1)

Seahawks at Eagles ($46400) (225.92%): Captain D.K. Metcalf, Russell Wilson, Dallas Goedert, Marshawn Lynch, Jake Elliot, Seahawks DST

Titans at Ravens ($50000) (225.02%): Captain Marquise Brown, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Hayden Hurst, Kalif Raymond – (9)

Seahawks at Packers ($49800) (240.48%): Captain Davante Adams, Russell Wilson, Aaron Jones, Tyler Lockett, Jason Myers, Luke Willson – (3)

Packers at 49ers ($49600) (257.82%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, 49ers DST, Robbie Gould – (30)

2020:

Texans at Chiefs ($49600) (205.03%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, David Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Akins- (36)

Cowboys at Rams ($49200) (242.03%): Captain Malcom Brown, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Sam Sloman – (2)

Steelers at Giants ($49600) (282.00%): Captain Darius Slayton, Saquon Barkley, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Daniel Jones, Benny Snell – (16)

Titans at Broncos ($47000) (268.48%): Captain Corey Davis, Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, Melvin Gordon III, Noah Fant, Adam Humphries – (1)

Bengals at Browns ($49800) (284.59%): Captain Nick Chubb, Joe Burrow, Odell Beckham, Kareem Hunt, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah – (248)

Patriots at Seahawks ($49200) (249.63%): Captain Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Damiere Byrd, David Moore – (37)

Saints at Raiders ($49500) (249.99%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Darren Waller, Daniel Carlson, Jalen Richard – (23)

Dolphins at Jaguars ($48300) (237.04%): Captain James Robinson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, Dolphins DST – (2)

Packers at Saints ($48300) (257.44%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis – (2)

Chiefs at Ravens ($50000) (213.05%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Devin Duvernay – (71)

Broncos at Jets ($49300) (242.83%): Captain Melvin Gordon III, Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Tim Patrick, Brandon McManus, Sam Ficken – (46)

Eagles at 49ers ($49900) (255.58%): Captain George Kittle, Carson Wentz, Jerick McKinnon, Brandon Aiyuk, Greg Ward, Eagles DST – (1)

Falcons at Packers ($45600) (235.72%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley II, Robert Tonyan, Jamaal Williams, Olamide Zaccheus – (1)

Buccaneers at Bears ($49900) (260.24%): Captain Ronald Jones, Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Jimmy Graham, Ryan Succop – (179)

Vikings at Seahawks ($48500) (237.22%): Captain Adam Thielen, Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Chris Carson, Alexander Mattison, Irv Smith – (8)

Chargers at Saints ($49700) (292.49%): Captain Mike Williams, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Justin Herbert, Emmanuel Sanders, Wil Lutz – (157)

Bills at Titans ($48700) (205.34%): Captain Ryan Tannehill, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Jonnu Smith, Cole Beasley, T.J. Yeldon – (7)

Rams at 49ers ($49800) (238.15%): Captain George Kittle, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Reynolds – (42)

Chiefs at Bills ($49600) (220.4%): Captain Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Stefon Diggs, Demarcus Robinson, Darrel Williams (11)

Cardinals at Cowboys ($49300) (217.74%): Captain Kenyan Drake, Kyler Murray, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Cardinals – (10)

Giants at Eagles ($47600) (234.85%): Captain Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones, Boston Scott, Sterling Shepard, Greg Ward, Wayne Gallman – (2)

Falcons at Panthers ($49700) (227.65%): Captain Curtis Samuel, Matt Ryan, Teddy Bridgewater, Julio Jones, Hayden Hurst, Younghoe Koo – (52)

Cowboys at Eagles ($46900) (296.95%): Captain Eagles DST, Carson Wentz, Travis Fulgham, Boston Scott, Jalen Reagor, Michael Gallup – (25)

Buccaneers at Giants ($49800) (254.73%): Captain Ryan Succop, Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard, Wayne Gallman

Packers at 49ers ($44300) (299.05%): Captain Richie James, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – (2)

Saints at Buccaneers ($49400) (181.81%): Captain Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans, Taysom Hill, Emmanuel Sanders, Saints – (2)

Patriots at Jets ($48700) (249.24%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Rex Burkhead, Breshad Perriman, Nick Folk – (25)

Colts at Titans ($46100) (230.92%): Captain Nyheim Hines, Derrick Henry, Philip Rivers, Corey Davis, Michael Pittman, Rodrigo Blankenship – (2)

Ravens at Patriots ($49500) (276.17%): Captain Willie Snead IV, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, Rex Burkhead, Gus Edwards – (123)

Vikings at Bears ($44500) (165.67%): Captain Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Bears, Vikings – (2)

Seahawks at Cardinals ($48500) (210.92%): Captain Tyler Lockett, Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, Carlos Hyde, Larry Fitzgerald – (2)

Chiefs at Raiders ($49900) (226.19%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, Le’Veon Bell – (15)

Rams at Buccaneers ($49300) (219.43%): Captain Robert Woods, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Van Jefferson – (6)

Bears at Packers ($48000) (228.09%): Captain David Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers, Allen Robinson II, Robert Tonyan, Packers, Jamaal Williams – (2)

Seahawks at Eagles ($48700) (194.13%): Captain DK Metcalf, Carson Wentz, Chris Carson, Dallas Goedert, Jason Myers, Richard Rodgers – (1)

Ravens at Steelers ($49300) (234.65%): Captain Marquise Brown, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Benny Snell, Steelers DST, Ravens DST – (6)

Broncos at Chiefs ($48200) (266.04%): Captain Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Melvin Gordon III, Tim Patrick, Harrison Butker, Le’Veon Bell – (9)

Bills at 49ers ($50000) (283.37%): Captain Cole Beasley, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Nick Mullens, Brandon Aiyuk, Isaiah McKenzie – (209)

Patriots at Rams ($44600) (279.85%): Captain Cam Akers, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Meyers, Rams, Damiere Byrd – (2)

Steelers at Bills ($48800) (233.91%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Ben Roethlisberger, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bills, Jaylen Samuels – (2)

Ravens at Browns ($50000) (273.6%): Captain Kareem Hunt, Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku – (109)

Chargers at Raiders ($48500) (227.86%): Captain Justin Herbert, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Henry, Tyron Johnson, Devontae Booker – (1)

Browns at Giants ($49100) (267.22%): Captain Austin Hooper, Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram – (9)

Steelers at Bengals ($48500) (224.26%): Captain Benny Snell, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Ryan Finley, Giovani Bernard, Austin Seibert – (1)

Vikings at Saints ($49100) (226.75%): Captain Alvin Kamara, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith, Latavius Murray, Wil Lutz – (28)

Titans at Packers ($49700) (243.92%): Captain Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Equanimeous St. Brown – (25)

Bills at Patriots ($49700) (264.62%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Zack Moss, Tyler Bass, Lee Smith – (11)

Football Team at Eagles ($49700) (329.17%): Captain Jalen Hurts, Terry McLaurin, Alex Smith, Logan Thomas, Dustin Hopkins, Boston Scott – (180)

Buccaneers at Football Team ($48400) (235.64%): Captain Taylor Heinicke, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Cam Sims – (1)

2021:

Cowboys at Buccaneers ($49300) (258.69%): Captain Rob Gronkowski, Dak Prescott, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Antonio Brown – (39)

Bears at Rams ($46600) ($46600) (263.26%): Captain Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson Jr., Matt Gay, Van Jefferson Jr. – (4)

Ravens at Raiders ($48400) (259.6%): Captain Darren Waller, Derek Carr, Marquise Brown, Ty’Son Williams, Sammy Watkins, Hunter Renfrow – (14)

Giants at Football Team ($47900) (249.77%): Captain Terry McLaurin, Daniel Jones, Taylor Heinicke, Sterling Shepard, Graham Gano – (13)

Chiefs at Ravens ($49600) (228.63%): Captain Byron Pringle, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Travis Kelce, Marquise Brown, Demarcus Robinson – (6)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (230.14%): Captain Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Tonyan, Quintez Cephus, Trinity Benson – (231)

Panthers at Texans ($50000) (216.97%): Captain Sam Darnold, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, Davis Mills, Chuba Hubbard, Anthony Miller – (29)

Eagles at Cowboys ($48000) (245.88%): Captain Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Jalen Reagor, Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz – (6)

Buccaneers at Patriots ($48900) (192.51%): Captain Mac Jones, Mike Evans, Jakobi Meyers, Leonard Fournette, Hunter Henry, Ryan Succop – (5)

Raiders at Chargers ($47800) (242.63%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow, Jared Cook, Donald Parham Jr. – (4)

Rams at Seahawks ($48800) (234.19%): Captain Robert Woods, Matthew Stafford, DK Metcalf, Darrell Henderson Jr., Tyler Higbee, Sony Michel – (13)

Buccaneers at Eagles ($48700) (330.02%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, Antonio Brown, Zach Ertz, O.J. Howard – (306)

Seahawks at Steelers ($49800) (253.93%): Captain Alex Collins, Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson, Chris Boswell, Pat Freiermuth – (45)

Bills at Titans ($48500) (262.7%): Captain Derrick Henry, Josh Allen, Cole Beasley, Tyler Bass, Tommy Sweeney – (6)

Broncos at Browns ($49900) (288.36%): Captain D’Ernest Johnson, Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum, Noah Fant, Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams – (153)

Colts at 49ers ($45600) (264.01%): Captain Michael Pittman Jr., Carson Wentz, Deebo Samuel, Eli Mitchell, Mo Allie-Cox, Colts – (49)

Packers at Cardinals ($49500) (272.32%): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, James Conner, Chase Edmonds, Zach Ertz, Randall Cobb – (49)

Cowboys at Vikings ($49500) (230.69%): Captain Amari Cooper, Kirk Cousins, CeeDee Lamb, Adam Thielen, Cooper Rush, Cedrick Wilson – (5)

Giants at Chiefs ($49900) (212.57%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Daniel Jones, Darrel Williams, Devontae Booker, Mecole Hardman, John Ross III – (11)

Jets at Colts ($50000) (187.18%): Captain Jonathan Taylor, Carson Wentz, Elijah Moore, Josh Johnson, Nyheim Hines, Tyler Kroft – (1)

Titans at Rams ($48800) (200.46%): Captain Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford, Robert Woods, Geoff Swaim, Sony Michel, Titans – (1)

Bears at Steelers ($49300) (236.12%): Captain Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, Chris Boswell – (24)

Ravens at Dolphins ($46700) (226.65%): Captain Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Jaylen Waddle, Rashod Bateman, Dolphins, Albert Wilson – (1)

Chiefs at Raiders ($50000) (205.61%): Captain Darrel Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, Byron Pringle – (13)

Rams at 49ers ($49700) (219.04%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Robbie Gould, 49ers – (29)

Patriots at Falcons ($39600) (190.57%): Captain Patriots DST, Mac Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Olamide Zaccheaus, Nelson Agholor, Nick Folk – (4)

Steelers at Chargers ($49600) (247.76%): Captain Austin Ekeler, Justin Herbert, Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Chris Boswell, Donald Parham Jr. – (53)

Giants at Buccaneers ($49800) (246.29%): Captain Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley, Ryan Succop, Ronald Jones II – (36)

2022:

Bills at Rams ($49300): Captain Bills, Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Isaiah McKenzie

Buccaneers at Cowboys ($43500) (156.6%): Captain Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Dalton Schultz, Julio Jones, Buccaneers, Ryan Succop – (1)

Denver at Seattle ($47900) (194.3%): Captain Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Brandon McManus, Will Dissly – (4)

Chargers at Chiefs ($48500) (164.2%): Captain Mike Williams, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Gerald Everett, Justin Watson – (1)

Bears at Packers ($49500): Captain Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, David Montgomery, Sammy Watkins, Mason Crosby, Ryan Griffin

Vikings at Eagles ($49000): Captain Jalen Hurts, Justin Jefferson, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith, Irv Smith, Quez Watkins

Steelers at Browns: ($49700) (173.0%): Captain Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, David Njoku, Browns – (34)

49ers at Broncos: ($49100) (178.8%): Captain Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Cortland Sutton, Jeff Wilson Jr., Melvin Gordon III, Broncos – (3)

Cowboys at Giants: ($50000): Captain Graham Gano, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Daniel Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, Brett Maher

Dolphins at Bengals ($49800) (194.8%): Captain Tyreek Hill, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Hayden Hurst, Trent Sherfield – (47)

Chiefs at Buccaneers ($48100) (169.3%): Captain Mike Evans, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Matthew Wright, Rachaad White – (3)

Rams at 49ers ($49800): Captain Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson Jr., Tyler Higbee, 49ers, Matt Gay

Colts at Broncos ($32900) (142.1%): Captain Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton, Broncos, Brandon McManus, Chase McLaughlin, Colts – (1)

Bengals at Ravens ($48900) (263.1%): Captain Hayden Hurst, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay, Justin Tucker – (12)

Raiders at Chiefs ($50000): Captain Travis Kelce, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Daniel Carlson

2023:

Lions at Chiefs ($47500) (224.4%): Captain Patrick Mahomes, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Josh Reynolds, Blake Bell – (12)

Cowboys at Giants ($44200) (193.2%): Captain Cowboys, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aubrey, KaVontae Turpin – (1)

Bills at Jets ($47300) (156.3%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Breece Hall, Tyler Bass, Greg Zuerlein, Jets – (1)

Vikings at Eagles ($49800) (236.3%): Captain D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, DeVonta Smith, T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison – (340)

Dolphins at Patriots ($49600) (218.0%): Captain Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill, Rhamondre Stevenson, Mac Jones, Hunter Henry, Salvon Ahmed – (24)

Browns at Steelers ($48400) (210.4%): Captain George Pickens, Nick Chubb, Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Steelers, Jerome Ford – (1)

Rams at Bengals ($49900) (208.3%): Captain Ja’Marr Chase, Matthew Stafford, Joe Mixon, Tutu Atwell, Evan McPherson, Bengals – (24)

Giants at 49ers ($49600) (231.3%): Captain Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Matt Breida, George Kittle, Ronnie Bell – (125)

Steelers at Raiders ($49600) (170.2%): Captain Davante Adams, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jakobi Meyers, Steelers, Calvin Austin III, Chris Boswell – (10)

Chiefs at Jets ($48200) (190.1%): Captain Isiah Pacheco, Patrick Mahomes, Garrett Wilson, Zach Wilson, Allen Lazard, Noah Gray – (7)

Lions at Packers ($50000) (210.4%): Captain David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Lions – (74)

Seahawks at Giants ($48800) (308.1%): Captain Seahawks, Kenneth Walker III, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, DK Metcalf, Wan’Dale Robinson – (31)

Packers at Raiders ($46700) (219.9%): Captain Jakobi Meyers, Josh Jacobs, Jimmy Garoppolo, Christian Watson, AJ Dillon, Raiders – (15)

Cowboys at 49ers ($46800) (205.5%): Captain George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, Brock Purdy, 49ers, Jordan Mason – (2)

Bears at Commanders ($49400) (226.3%): Captain DJ Moore, Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, Antonio Gibson – (64)

Giants at Bills ($47500) (182.1%): Captain Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, Wan’Dale Robinson, Deonte Harty, Quintin Morris – (2)

Broncos at Chiefs ($49900) (213.3%): Captain Courtland Sutton, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chiefs, Harrison Butker, Kadarius Toney – (18)

Cowboys at Chargers ($49600) (173.8%): Captain Dak Prescott, Keenan Allen, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Brandon Aubrey, Gerald Everett – (3)

When we review winning lineups, we can think backwards and determine what game-script ideas and correlations went into constructing each roster. In the Week 1 2020 MNF matchup between the Titans and Broncos, pricing was incredibly soft and it was easy to lock in top projected player Derrick Henry into the captain spot without making additional sacrifices to the rest of our lineup. The field followed suit, owning Henry in the captain spot at a 31.4% rate. At elevated ownership, it made sense to look for paths where Henry could be outscored by another option; one such path was to assume the Titans had success through the air. Corey Davis at captain immediately provided leverage off of Henry and fellow WR A.J. Brown, who was also highly owned. The winning lineup paired Davis with QB Ryan Tannehill and included Henry in the flex, locking up a majority of the team’s offensive production. Davis’ cheap $9,000 captain salary and lack of high-priced options from the Broncos side kept the lineup’s total salary ($47,000) well below the cap without sacrificing too many projected points and ensured it wouldn’t be duplicated despite high cumulative ownership (268.48%). These are the types of decisions we have to think through during showdown lineup construction in an effort to maximize correlation and uniqueness.

TEAM-SPECIFIC ANALYSIS & NOTABLE PRICE CONSIDERATIONS

On opposite ends of the standings, an NFC North rivalry takes center stage on Monday night’s doubleheader, as the Bears travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings as 7-point road underdogs in a game featuring a meager 43.5-point total. Since firing OC Shane Waldron and turning the keys of the offense over to Thomas Brown, Chicago ranks 11th in PROE (+0.9%), up slightly from their season-long average (-1.6%), posting a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation in three of their last four games, including a +11% outing against this same Minnesota defense in Week 12. It has resulted in a 62% situation-neutral pass rate that climbs to 67% when trailing. Minnesota’s defense has faced a league-average -1.7% PROE against this season, grading out as the league’s top overall run defense on an EPA/Play basis (-0.17), while still ranking top six in EPA/Pass (-0.07). Based on what we’ve seen in the short four-game sample under Brown and what we saw against this same defense in Week 12, I’m expecting another throw-heavy approach from the Bears Monday night. On the other side, Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell has orchestrated one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses all season, ranking third in PROE (+3.3%) on the season and fourth over their last four games (+7.3%). The Bears’ defense has deflated opposing pass volume, facing the league’s ninth-lowest PROE (-4.2%) this season, but I don’t suspect that is going to stop O’Connell and this Vikings offense from imposing their will through the air. The biggest concern is Minnesota jumping out to a lead early, where they don’t mind taking their foot off the gas with just a 51% pass rate when playing with a lead. But as long as this one remains competitive, we should see plenty of Vikings dropbacks.

Along with leaning into the pass, Brown hasn’t messed around with personnel deployment since taking over as play-caller. Over the last four games, D.J. Moore ($8,000), Keenan Allen ($7,000), and Rome Odunze ($6,400) have run a route on 98%, 95%, and 93% of dropbacks, respectively, making up one of the league’s most consistent and predictable 3-WR sets for fantasy purposes. In the 11 games this trio has shared the field together, Moore leads the team in target share (23.9%) and first-read target share (29.5%), while also snagging a team-high 21.7% designed target rate, according to Fantasy Points Data, as the go-to option on screens. Now he’ll face a zone-heavy Minnesota defense, where he ranks as the team’s best receiver in both target rate (20.2%) and fantasy points per route run (0.36), according to PFF. It might actually be Allen who has the team’s best usage profile, ranking second in target share (22.8%), first-read target share (29.0%), and Air Yards share (30.1%) while leading in EZ targets (8) in the 11 games played alongside Moore and Odunze. I think the price and projection gap between him and Moore is correct, but I don’t mind prioritizing Allen if the gap in ownership widens, highlighting just how thin the margins are when debating between the two. Odunze has been the team’s most volatile receiver — longtime listeners of Establish The Million don’t need me to tell them that — but it doesn’t mean he’s incapable of finding a weekly ceiling, something we saw just last week. He’s a distant third on the team in target share (18.2%) but leads in Air Yards share (31.6%) on a team-high 13.3-yard aDOT and has managed a team-best 11 EZ targets in his first 13 games as a pro. Given the lower-volume, higher-aDOT nature of his game, there are going to be plenty more poor performances in his range of outcomes, but it will come with its fair share of ceiling performances as well, something I won’t hesitate to bet on if he checks in with much lower ownership Monday night than his pass-catching counterparts. As a whole, the Bears’ pass catchers are a cohort I have plenty of interest in based on what I expect to be a pass-first game environment where they’ll square off against a Vikings defense that is inflating production to their position at a league-high 8.6% clip, according to our DvP tool. All of them comfortable operating out of the slot at times, it doesn’t hurt that Minnesota is allowing the league’s 10th-highest target share to opposing slot receivers (33.6%) either. Cole Kmet ($4,400) has operated as the team’s TE1 all season, but it wasn’t until Week 11 when the team completely iced Gerald Everett ($600) and gave Kmet a little more room to operate. During that four-game span, he’s earned an 11.6% target share and 11.3% Air Yards share on an 8.4-yard aDOT. Minnesota has been a slightly below-average matchup for opposing tight ends, but I still have interest in Kmet for small- and large-field tournaments, even if I prioritize him after the Bears’ WR trio. After back-to-back DNPs to open the week, D’Andre Swift ($7,600) is currently projected in, while Roschon Johnson (concussion) has already been ruled out and Travis Homer ($2,000) enters the game without an injury designation. In comments shared by The Coachspeak Index, Brown said he ‘felt positive about it’ referring to Swift’s game-day status, but a final decision may ultimately come down to lock. In Week 14 with Johnson sidelined, Swift handled 67% of the team’s carries, ran a route on 50% of dropbacks, and added a 4% target share, racking up an inefficient 5.0 DraftKings points on 16 total opportunities. Assuming he’s active, he should once again serve as the team’s bellcow back, but I question his ability to score well in this spot as a 7-point road dog against a Minnesota defense that is deflating RB production at the league’s fourth-highest rate (5.2%) while conceding just the 22nd-highest target share (15.0%) to opposing backs. There’s a point where if his ownership comes in low enough I may have to change my tune, but I’m fine slotting him in behind all of Moore, Allen, and Odunze in terms of the Bears’ skill-position pecking order. Caleb Williams ($9,600) is just cheap enough and is distributing the ball evenly enough that he’ll check in as the top overall target for Chicago in cash-game contests and as a FLEX option in tournaments, where salary allows. While I think he provides a strong floor in those formats, I have little interest in him at CPT given the price discrepancy between he and his pass catchers and DraftKings’ scoring in this environment being more favorable for his receivers.

The entire Minnesota offense found box-score success in last week’s 42-21 rout over the Falcons, but it was Justin Jefferson ($12,000) and Jordan Addison ($8,400) who did most of the heavy lifting. Now, Monday night, Jefferson joins Ja’Marr Chase ($12,000) as the only other skill-position player to earn a $12K price tag, and it comes on a slate that doesn’t boast a lot of value. So, despite team highs in target share (29.2%), Air Yards share (37.5%), RZ target share (25.0%), and EZ targets (11) as one of the league’s most talented WRs, in what is one of the league’s friendliest fantasy offenses, I think there’s a chance Monday night ownership doesn’t get away from us, even if he is the slate’s most-owned player. While there isn’t a matchup in the league that concerns me for Jefferson, the biggest worry is that this game doesn’t stay competitive long enough for Minnesota to feed him the requisite volume to beat this tag. As such, I’d prefer to play Jefferson in lineups — particularly when rostered at CPT — that expect somewhat of a back-and-forth affair. Addison also gets his highest tag of the season after hovering around the $7K mark for most of the season following his 42.3 DraftKings-point eruption in Week 14. A prototypical boom-or-bust receiver, Addison has game logs of 22.9, 33.2, and 42.3 DK points to go along with five separate outings of 9.6 or fewer. He is still second on the team in target share (21.5%), Air Yards share (32.0%), and RZ target share (23.5%), allowing him to occasionally capitalize and do what he did last week. He’s also fared better against zone coverage this season, which he should see plenty of Monday night, posting an 18.9% target rate and a team-best 0.51 fantasy points per route run, according to PFF. As is usually the case with players featuring a range of outcomes as wide as Addison, I’ll be willing to play him at low ownership but have no problem going different directions if the field is jamming him in. Jalen Nailor ($3,200) was the odd man out last week for an offense that racked up 347 receiving yards and five touchdowns, putting up a bagel without a single target despite running a route on 54% of dropbacks. That isn’t all that uncommon for Nailor, who has run a route on 51.9% of dropbacks with Addison and Jefferson healthy, managing just a 6.6% target share and 9.3% Air Yards share on a 12.6-yard aDOT. Nailor’s tag makes him a fringe option in large-field tournaments, mostly as a touchdown-or-bust dart throw. Since returning in Week 9, T.J. Hockenson ($5,800) ranks third on the team in target share (19.0%), Air Yards share (16.9%), and RZ target share (15.0%), working up to an 83% route participation rate in Week 14. He catches one of the league’s best matchups for opposing TEs against a Bears defense that is allowing the league’s highest target share (14.7%) to in-line receivers and inflating production to his position at a 2.1% clip. The Monday night price tag is cheap enough for Hock that he’ll check in as one of the slate’s top overall values. After peaking at an absurd 92% snap rate in Week 9, the Vikings have found natural spots to pull off of Aaron Jones’ ($10,000) bellcow workload, giving a few more opportunities to midseason acquisition Cam Akers ($3,000). Still, since Week 9, Jones is handling 57% of the team’s carries, 62.5% of the RZ carries, and all of the RB carries inside the 5-yard line while also running a route on 49% of dropbacks for a 9% target share. It’s still a strong workload for a 7-point home favorite, squaring off against a Bears defense that is inflating production to opposing RBs by 5.3%, allowing the league’s sixth-highest explosive rush rate and fifth-lowest stuff rate (38.7%) on a league-high 2.44 yards before contact per attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data. I’m confident both Jones and Akers will have no issue finding per-touch efficiency Monday night. Given the projected game environment and cheap tag, I expect Akers to be among the slate’s most-owned value options who may be viewed as a necessity by many paying up for the expensive Vikings. Since Akers isn’t as game script-dependent as many similarly-priced RB2s, I don’t mind lineups that roster both him and Jones together, even with Jones at CPT. Sam Darnold ($10,600) is the slate’s top overall cash-game option and best FLEX option in tournaments where he’s $1,400 cheaper than Jefferson and just $600 more expensive than Jones. Having scored at least 15.6 DraftKings points in all but two games this season, he possesses the slate’s highest floor as a 7-point home favorite, under center for one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses.

TOP PLAYS

Given the importance of maximizing raw points, correlation, and uniqueness, we’ve grouped our top plays into three categories: top overall plays, top value plays, and top leverage plays. Our top leverage plays are ones where we identify a player that has a higher chance to be a necessary piece of a winning lineup than ownership projections would indicate.

Player	Category	Notes
Sam Darnold	Overall	The no-brainer top overall option for both cash-game contests and as a FLEX piece in tournament lineups, Darnold owns the slate’s highest floor.
Justin Jefferson	Overall	With a 29.2% target share and 37.5% Air Yards share to go along with 11 EZ targets in a pass-first offense, the talent and role here is just too good to pass up, even at a slate-high $12K tag.
Caleb Williams	Overall	I’d listen to arguments here for Jones instead of Williams, but as a QB in this format, the floor is tough to match, even against a tough defense as a 7-point road dog. There should be plenty of volume for Williams and the Bears’ aerial attack, and rostering him helps us avoid the Chicago WR whack-a-mole.
T.J. Hockenson	Value	Hockenson is still a clear third in the target pecking order, but that’s more than reflected in his price here for a dream matchup against a Bears defense that has been pretty forgiving against opposing TEs.
Cam Akers	Value	Akers is one of the few cheap skill-position values that allows us to spend up elsewhere but also projects for bankable volume. He’s averaged 7.8 touches per game over his last six and may be on the high end of that projection here.
Will Reichard	Value	Reichard gets the benefit of kicking at home for a team with a 25.5-point total. There may be slightly better point-per-dollar options that are slightly more expensive, but few have as good of a floor as Reichard.
Rome Odunze	Leverage	As noted above, I have far less interest in Odunze if ownership is elevated, but he is just the type of player I want to take shots on at low ownership. My initial lean has both D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen coming in with reasonably more ownership given the not insignificant projection gap.
Jordan Addison	Leverage	Likewise, I get the sense that Addison isn’t going to get rostered as much as some might think after last week’s 42.3-point eruption because of the field’s interest in both Jefferson and Hockenson on his own team and Moore and Allen priced right next to him. My interest in Addison is extremely sensitive to final ownership projections, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on where they land.
Cole Kmet	Leverage	You’d think as one of the cheapest viable options on the slate, ownership would come in a little higher here, but Kmet’s projection just isn’t strong enough to get him there. This isn’t an ideal spot, but if Chicago is indeed playing from behind and forced to drop back often, Kmet is going to be in a route for almost all of them.
Jalen Nailor	Dart Throw	Nailor is a true touchdown-or-bust dart throw, earning just a 6.6% target share when both Addison and Jefferson are healthy. But he’s had an uncanny ability to earn opportunities in scoring position with eight of his 30 total targets coming in the end zone, resulting in five touchdowns.

STACK IDEAS

* CPT Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold, Cole Kmet – There are some players where I could hardly care about their projected CPT ownership because I want them in my lineup portfolio regardless; Jefferson is one of those players. Of course, as with any player, there comes a point where we can’t blindly ignore ownership simply because of how we view a player. But even in this case, I don’t think he gets to a point where we’re forced to consider a fade based on how this slate was priced. I will, however, be cognizant with my remaining roster spots to try and avoid popular cheap options who are more likely to be rostered at FLEX in CPT Jefferson lineups.

* CPT Aaron Jones, Vikings D/ST, Keenan Allen – Jones can get there as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’s managed just an 8% target share since Week 9 and isn’t playing on all long-down-and-distance (42%) or 2-minute snaps (57%) either. Instead, I think it’s more likely he finds a slate-winning score in a game where Minnesota takes a commanding lead early and is more likely to lean on their rushing attack while allowing their blitz-heavy defense to get after a Bears OL that Brandon Thorn ranks 26th this week.

* CPT Jordan Addison, Sam Darnold, D.J. Moore – Of the players I have interest in at CPT, Addison could be the first cut I make if I sense projected CPT ownership getting away from me. But as it stands, I think it’ll come in at a point where he’ll still profile as a +EV option in a vacuum. The drop in salary from Jefferson to Addison gives us a little more roster flexibility while still allowing us to attack the slate with a similar overall construction.

* CPT Rome Odunze, Caleb Williams, Aaron Jones – I think the gap in projection between Odunze and Moore/Allen is right based on usage, but that’ll be reflected in Monday night CPT ownership. Odunze’s high-aDOT + end-zone role still gives him access to an attractive weekly ceiling at this mid-tier tag.

* CPT D.J. Moore, Caleb Williams, T.J. Hockenson – Moore can find a slate-winning score in a variety of ways but profiles as the most likely candidate to benefit from DraftKings’ PPR-friendly scoring should Chicago fall behind early and lean on their short passing game in come-from-behind mode, where he’s a candidate to see more targets at or near the line of scrimmage.

ROSTER CONSTRUCTION UTILIZATION PROJECTIONS

Understanding how our opponents will construct lineups offers opportunities for leverage in large-field tournaments. These projections use a combination of historical results and slate-specific pricing, ownership, and fantasy-point projections to calculate how often each lineup build will be used. Please note: The number of favorites is listed first; the number of underdogs is listed second. For example, 1-5 refers to one favorite – five underdogs.

Roster Construction	Utilization
1 MIN – 5 CHI	2.6%
2 MIN – 4 CHI	19.2%
3 MIN – 3 CHI	35.4%
4 MIN – 2 CHI	31.2%
5 MIN – 1 CHI	11.6%

PROJECTIONS/OWNERSHIP

DK BAL-BUF Showdown Fantasy and Ownership Projections

Name	Team	Position	Salary	Projection	Ceiling	Total Own	CPT Salary	CPT Projection	CPT Own	FLEX Value

FD Single Game Projections

Name	Team	Position	Salary	Projection	Total Own	MVP Projection	MVP Own	Ceiling	FLEX Value

Monday Night Projections Detail

Player	Position	Team	Opponent	Completions	Attempts	Pass Yards	Pass TDs	Pass INTs	Carries	Rush Yards	Rush TDs	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs