XFL Top Plays: Week 4

Editor’s Note: We may not write up every player we consider to be a top play. Be sure to consult the chart at the bottom of the page. This page will be updated, if necessary.

 

You don’t have to play cash games to understand why it’s important to grasp them. Players we consider for cash are the ones we believe are the most underpriced, have the best floor/ceiling combo, and feature a relatively tight range of outcomes.

In other words, these are the best plays on the board once price, slate context, and positional depth are accounted for. Those sound like pretty good options for GPPs as well.

The optimal GPP lineup will mix some of these cash-type plays with higher-variance options in correlated lineups. In cash games (where roughly 50% of the field gets paid out), we don’t worry about ownership, game stacks, or correlation. In large-field tournaments, our ACO (average cumulative ownership) should stay reasonably low. Please read this article and listen to Episode 237 of the podcast for more on large-field tournament strategy.

 

With all that said, these are our Top Plays considering the following factors: median projection, matchup, upside, and value. Ownership is NOT considered here. Generally speaking, these players are what we consider to be “head-to-head and 50/50 considerations.”

 

QUARTERBACK

Ben DiNucci (Seattle – $10,800) – DiNucci seems like the logical cash-game choice at QB this week, as the former Dallas Cowboy is successfully leading a pass-friendly system that dropped back on 69% of their snaps in Week 3. DiNucci capitalized, throwing for 377 yards and a whopping four touchdowns. He’s the safest bet in XFL DFS at the moment.

Brett Hundley (Las Vegas – $10,000) – Hundley, who made his first XFL start last week, brought a jolt to the Vipers’ offense, totaling 290 yards, 66 of which were on the ground. He added in three total touchdowns and proved to be worthy of his league-high contract. He’s proven to be a dual threat, and he finds himself in a game environment with D.C. that has the highest O/U on the weekend at 41.5.

Brandon Silvers (Houston – $9,700) – It was a good week for pass-first QBs in Week 3, and Silvers was no exception to that. He threw for three touchdowns on 278 yards with a whopping 35 pass attempts. While Cole McDonald will still take the obvious rush work, Silvers should account for all of the passing work in a pass-first offense that we continue to be bullish on. It helps that he gets the league-worst Orlando Guardians as an opponent this week.

 

RUNNING BACK

Abram Smith (D.C. – $8,400) – Abram Smith’s Week 3 box score may have been pedestrian (16/54 on the ground and 3/16 through the air), but it’s the role we continue to be excited about. D.C. wants to be very run-heavy, keeping the ball on the ground at a near 59% rate last week. Smith played 46-of-60 snaps, carried the ball 16 times, and was in on 19 pass downs as well. A big box-score week could be coming for Smith, who projects as our best RB in Week 4.

De’Veon Smith (Arlington – $7,300) – De’Veon Smith comes in $1,100 cheaper than Abram Smith but has a similarly strong role. De’Veon has a strong grip on the Arlington backfield, playing on 44-of-57 total snaps in Week 3. He’s yet to find the end zone this season, but positive touchdown regression should be coming his way. He ran the ball 18 times last week.

Brian Hill (St. Louis – $6,600) – Brian Hill lived up to his NFL pedigree in his two XFL games so far. After being questionable to play last week, Hill put up a strong performance, rushing 11 times for 32 yards and adding another 4/49 and a touchdown through the air. St. Louis has certainly been pass-first so far, but Hill is playing on the vast majority of snaps and has proven to be an asset in the passing game. 

*Note on Morgan Ellison (Seattle – $6,900) – Ellison is officially listed as questionable to play this week with a leg injury, but if he goes, he will be in play for cash or tournaments. He’s the lead back in a valuable Seattle offense, and he eclipsed the 100 rushing-yard mark on 17 carries in Week 3.

 

WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

Jontre Kirklin (Houston – $8,900) – We know how much Houston offensive coordinator A.J. Smith wants to throw the ball, and Kirklin has been the biggest beneficiary of that scheme thus far. Kirklin and teammate Deontay Burnett are the clear top two WRs for the Roughnecks. Kirklin played on 59-of-70 snaps in Week 3, catching 6-of-7 targets for 77 yards and two touchdowns. He’s got a nose for the end zone and is one of Silvers’ top targets.

Jahcour Pearson (Seattle – $10,300), Blake Jackson (SEA – $7,500), and Josh Gordon (SEA – $10,600) – It’s hard to make a Top Plays list without discussing at least two of the Sea Dragons’ top WRs. This week, we believe all three deserve merit. Pearson is a clear alpha here, putting up Cooper Kupp-type numbers week in and week out. He played on 57-of-67 snaps and hauled in another seven catches on nine targets for 99 yards. He could have had a much bigger day with one more yard and an end-zone trip.

Jackson, meanwhile, is underpriced at $7500. Both he and Pearson will be quite chalky this week, but we have no issues with a DiNucci double or triple stack, even in cash games. Jackson played on 100% of snaps last week.

Yet it was the highest-profile Seattle WR, Josh Gordon, who finally broke out in Week 3, putting up a huge 6/118/2 line on 60% of snaps. He’s still more of a tournament option given his sky-high price and part-time role, but he needed to be mentioned.

Hakeem Butler (St. Louis – $8,300), Austin Proehl (St. Louis – $6,000) – St. Louis has proven to be a very pass-friendly offense, throwing the ball on 77% of snaps in Week 3, after two other weeks of over 68%. Helping Butler and Proehl’s case is the fact that Marcell Ateman has gone on I.R. Butler has NFL pedigree and has produced so far in the XFL, with a 16/193/3 line on 21 targets so far this season. We also continue to be bullish on Proehl’s slot role with competent QB A.J. McCarron at the helm.

 

DEFENSE

Houston Roughnecks ($4800) – It’s the double whammy for Houston this week, which looks like the slate’s best cash-game defense. They are both facing the putrid Orlando Guardians, who we have enjoyed picking on in DFS thus far, and they have been the third-highest-scoring DFS defense to this point. Houston leads the league in interceptions and sacks.

St. Louis Battlehawks ($4100) – The Battlehawks face off with the Arlington Renegades and QB Kyle Sloter who had been mistake-prone in his time in the USFL. St. Louis also leads the league in forced fumbles and fumbles recovered.

 

THE SOLVER RULE SUGGESTIONS

 

RULE 1: A showdown suggestion – for some 5-1 Vegas stacks

D.C. has been good over the first three games, but they have also had some good variance with turnovers and don’t look to have an unstoppable offense. Especially given that their team is rush-heavy, we could see a scenario where just one guy gets there even in showdown. We think 5-1 Vegas stacks go under-owned here, so forcing in some amount of them could be +EV.

 

RULE 2: Max 1 running back per team

There just aren’t many routes for two RBs from the same team to get good enough scores to win a tournament, so we prefer maxing this at 1.