A lot of the offseason “chatter” is irrelevant coachspeak. Statements like “We’re going to use Adrian Peterson in the pass game a lot this year” and “We are still really high on OJ Howard” serve only to trick our gullible opponents.
However, we can gain an edge by examining teams’ actions. Through transactions, contracts and draft strategy, they let us know what they’re really think. I explored some of this in the wake of free agency with winners and losers.
These are the players who saw a decrease in value thanks to what their team did (or didn’t do) in the draft. For winners, click here.
1. Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams
I’m worried the Rams are uncomfortably low on their 2019 third-round pick, Darrell Henderson. He logged 76 snaps last preseason even though Sean McVay never plays anyone he thinks will be a regular season contributor. That led to Henderson getting just 93 snaps as a rookie even though Todd Gurley was coddled and Malcolm Brown is a sub-average player. And now the Rams, with holes all over their team, used their first pick (52 overall) to take Florida State RB Cam Akers. Henderson will enter camp with a ton to prove. Akers is the heavy favorite to open the season as the lead of this committee.
2. John Ross, WR, Bengals
Ross has a grand total of 49 catches in three seasons since shockingly going 9th overall in 2017. A lot of that is due to injury, some of it is due to his own on-field struggles and a bit of it is to woeful QB play. Still, Ross’ 7-158-2 in Week 1 of last season and 4-112-1 in Week 2 confirmed the ceiling and unique skill set that 4.22 speed provides. But with the Bengals taking Tee Higgins at No. 33 overall, the expected 3-WR set to open the season will be AJ Green and Higgins on the outside with Tyler Boyd in the slot. Ross, still just 24 years old, is going to be a cheap asset to whatever team he lands on next. But in the short-term, he’s now buried.
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
The Packers entered the offseason with arguably the NFL’s most desperate need for pass-catching help. They emerged with Devin Funchess on a bargain-basement free agency deal and that’s it. In Round 1 of the draft the Packers took a second-string QB. In Round 2 they took a limited third-down RB. And in Round 3 they took a TE/FB blocker. That’s obviously a concern as Rodgers will be relying heavily on the likes of Allen Lazard and Jace Sternberger, as I mentioned here. But the bigger issue is the philosophy – the Packers want to win with their run game, defense and low Rodgers attempts. Rodgers was the QB13 in fantasy points per game last year and projects in that range again.
4. James Washington, WR, Steelers
The Steelers took 6’4/238 Chase Claypool 49th overall and then confirmed he’ll mostly play at outside WR. That locks Juju Smith-Schuster into his natural slot role and we know Dionte Johnson has earned one of the starting outside spot. Expect a competition between Washington and Claypool for the other outside role, something that could very well end in a value-sucking rotation. That said, if Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) is healthy this Steelers offense is a lock to rebound in a big way. Using any stats or tape from last year is useless as they got inept QB play from Mason Rudolph and Devin Hodges.
5. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
I obviously don’t think Josh Jacobs will see any less than the 18.6 carries per game he got last season. But he’ll only truly explode if he earns a big role in the pass game, and the Raiders’ offseason isn’t helping there. Last year, Jacobs saw a pathetic 2.07 targets per game while coming off the field in most clear-cut passing situations. That’s unlikely to change this year after the Raiders added Lynn Bowden to pair with Jalen Richard as pass-catching specialists. The additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will also pull some target share away from RBs as a whole.
6. Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers
I was hopeful that the Chargers would simply give the big back role to Jackson, an underrated 2018 7th-rounder who has averaged 5.1 YPC on 79 career NFL carries. It’s a sizable role as Chargers lead back Austin Ekeler is not your typical workhorse. But instead, the team decided to use a 4th-round pick on UCLA’s Josh Kelley. Expect a competition there through the season.
STARTING RB HITS
7. Marlon Mack, Colts
Colts traded up to select JonathanTaylor at 41 overall. Both Taylor and Mack do their best work on early downs, but Taylor is bigger, faster and was one of the NCAA’s most productive RBs ever. His 5’10/226 frame with 4.36 speed puts Mack to shame. In a best-case scenario, Mack is the 1B on early downs and steals some pass-down work from Nyheim Hines.
8. Mark Ingram and Justice Hill, Ravens
JK Dobbins has a ton of experience in the shotgun, read-option that Lamar Jackson excels in. He’s a major threat to step in right away and keep Ingram in a committee. Last year, Ingram received 13.4 carries per game and he’ll struggle to reach that mark again. Not only does the Ravens offense progress to regress in efficiency, but Dobbins is a major upgrade on Gus Edwards. Hill is buried.
9. Kerryon Johnson, Lions
It was clear last season that Matt Patricia and the Lions had no intention to use Kerryon as a workhorse. They went as far to say they were “saving” him for their non-existent playoff run. So while Kerryon’s talent level is high and arguably on par with D’Andre Swift’s, it’s irrelevant. This will be a strict committee with Kerryon likely losing the valuable pass-down work.
10. Damien Williams, Chiefs
You don’t use a first-round pick on a running back unless you intend to immediately give him significant work. Chiefs brass can’t stop talking about how much they love Clyde Edwards-Helaire, slapping Damien in the face in the process.
11. Ronald Jones, Bucs
Bruce Arians has been adamant that he wants a 3-down back. Ronald Jones is not that due to pass protection woes and the now it’s clear the Bucs have now intention of giving him a shot there. Jones still projects for a solid early-down role, but all the 2- and 4-minute stuff projects for third-round rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn. That’s especially crucial when playing with Tom Brady. Jones is capped in a Sony Michael-esque role, while Vaughn (if capable) can do some James White/Rex Burkhead tasks.
