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Green Bay @ Atlanta

Team Totals: Falcons 21, Packers 19.5

I took the Falcons to cover the 1.5-point spread in this one with top Packers skill-position player Aaron Jones (hamstring) likely to miss and top WR Christian Watson (hamstring) trying to work his way back. … Jordan Love turned in a promising opener; his mobility popped off the screen, Love averaged 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and he would have thrown a fourth touchdown pass had a wide-open Luke Musgrave not fallen down at the end of a 37-yard completion just shy of the end zone. Yet Love had a clean pocket all game — the Bears ranked 31st in Week 1 pressure rate — and Love’s weapons are dropping like flies. I’m approaching him as a mere QB2 this week, especially considering this game’s low total. … A.J. Dillon looked slower than molasses against Chicago, but his workload projection is too high to ignore assuming Jones sits. The Falcons’ defensive front looked vulnerable in Week 1’s win over Carolina, coughing up 167 total yards and 4.9 yards per carry to Panthers backs. Dillon is a volume-based RB2 starter at Atlanta.

Love’s Week 1 target distribution: Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed 5; Jones and Musgrave 4; Dillon and Samori Toure 3; Dontayvion Wicks 2; Malik Heath 1. … Fifth-round rookie Wicks led Packers wideouts in Week 1 snaps, second-round rookie Reed was No. 2, Doubs and UDFA rookie Heath tied for third, and Toure was fifth as part of a five-man WRBC. … Musgrave looks like Green Bay’s best fantasy pass-catcher bet. Musgrave played more snaps and ran more routes than every Packers wide receiver, while Week 2 opponent Atlanta served up 5/41/1 receiving to Hayden Hurst last week. … Even after Doubs hit paydirt twice at Chicago, I prefer Reed this week straight up. Doubs is still fighting a preseason hamstring strain, while Reed’s 34% Air Yards share led the Packers in Week 1. Both Reed and Doubs are WR3/flex options.

The Falcons deployed Desmond Ridder as a strict game manager in Week 1’s thumping of Carolina; he finished with just 22 dropbacks and a tiny 3.5-yard aDOT. Ridder is a low-end two-QB-league play. … HC Arthur Smith built his Opening Day offense around his running backs, feeding Tyler Allgeier 18 touches and Bijan Robinson 16. Whereas Allgeier was featured in scoring position with four carries inside the Panthers’ 10-yard line, Robinson was featured in the passing game with a team-high six targets among Ridder’s 18 attempts. The Falcons are physical enough on the offensive line and committed enough to these two that both Allgeier and Robinson can be fantasy starters, Robinson of the RB1 variety and Allgeier as an RB2/flex. I expect each to handle 13-19 touches against the Packers. … The obvious losers in Atlanta’s RB-centric approach are Drake London and Kyle Pitts. London air-balled on a single Week 1 target and seemed often to be Ridder’s second read behind Mack Hollins. Pitts has cleared 50 yards just twice over his last 12 games. I’m still starting Pitts as a low-end TE1, but I need to see something from London first.

Score Prediction: Falcons 23, Packers 20



Las Vegas @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Bills 27.5, Raiders 19

The Raiders trek cross country to Buffalo for a 1:00 p.m. ET game but do stand to benefit from the Bills playing on a short week. Jimmy Garoppolo does not stand to benefit from the loss of Jakobi Meyers, the two-TD star of Week 1 who suffered a scary concussion at Denver. … HC Josh McDaniels would be smart to lean on Josh Jacobs after Jets RBs torched the Bills for 224 total yards and 6.9 YPC last Monday night. Jacobs is coming off a painfully unlucky opener in which he logged five carries inside the 10-yard line and failed to execute on any of them. Jacobs did handle 21 of 23 (91%) touches in Vegas’ backfield and remains a locked-in RB1 here. … Meyers’ absence should increase McDaniels and Garoppolo’s emphasis on feeding Davante Adams, who did draw nine targets on Opening Day. He needs to see double digits here, and when Adams does so, he cooks. Adams’ last six stat lines on double-digit targets are 7/153/2, 8/177/2, 7/74/0, 7/141/2, 9/126/1, and 10/146/2. … Hunter RenfrowKristian Wilkerson, and DeAndre Carter rounded out the Raiders’ active wide receivers in Week 1. They all played equally and combined for one target. … TEs Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are sharing time almost right down the middle. No fun.

This is a prime bounce-back spot for Buffalo’s offense after the hyper-talented Jets defense put clamps on Josh Allen last Monday night. The Raiders were barely tested by game manager Russell Wilson in Week 1, but DC Patrick Graham’s unit coughed up the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy quarterback points in 2022, and this year’s defensive personnel looks negligibly better. No. 7 overall pick EDGE Tyree Wilson was a ghost last Sunday, and Chandler Jones (hurt feelings) isn’t even playing. Allen is my overall QB1 in fantasy for Week 2. … I’m still on the fence about James Cook as a potential fantasy starter after he was pulled in scoring position and too many passing situations for my liking against the Jets. Although he played far ahead of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris, Cook wound up with 63 empty yards on 16 touches. I want my fantasy starters to dominate high-value opportunities. I have Cook as a flex option.

Allen’s Week 1 target distribution: Stefon Diggs 13; Cook 6; Gabe DavisDalton KincaidDawson Knox, and Deonte Harty 4; Murray and Harris 2. … Allen-to-Diggs DFS stacks should be extremely popular after Diggs dominated the Jets’ stout secondary en route to 10/102/1 receiving in Week 1. The Raiders’ starting perimeter corners are 30-year-old journeyman Marcus Peters and fourth-round rookie Jakorian Bennett. … Following last Monday night’s loss, HC Sean McDermott implicitly called out Davis for not making enough plays. I could envision a scenario where OC Ken Dorsey proactively tries to get Davis going here, and an alternative scenario where Davis’ playing time is cut in favor of Harty. He’s a boom-bust WR3 option in Week 2’s plus draw. … First-round TE Kincaid’s underlying usage was on point against the Jets, but he was not utilized nearly enough downfield, finishing with a pathetic six Air Yards on four targets. I’m treating Knox and Kincaid as if they’re canceling each other out until one clearly emerges.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Raiders 20


Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Team Totals: Bengals 25, Ravens 21.5

Coming off an up-and-down debut in first-year OC Todd Monken’s offense, Lamar Jackson faces a Bengals defense that in Week 1 held Deshaun Watson to 5.3 yards per pass attempt but did concede 5/45/1 rushing to Watson. Yet Mark Andrews (hamstring) remains questionable after another limited practice week, and it looks like the Ravens won’t have LT Ronnie Stanley (knee) or C Tyler

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