Episode Summary: Market Monday – June 15 (June 15, 2026)
Adam Levitan returns with another Market Monday, breaking down six best ball ADP risers and fallers. He is fading Brian Thomas Jr. at 68 overall — BTJ scares him the most given how cluttered the Jaguars’ pass-catching room has become. He is buying Tucker Kraft when he slips past 78, with the Packers tight end playing like a top-three or top-four TE before last year’s ACL tear. And he is mostly fading Makai Lemon at 83, only taking him at the 1.01 or 1.02 spot on the board to set up the back-to-back Jalen Hurts/Lemon stack. Plus Ryan Flournoy’s contingent value, Jadarian Price now around even with the field at 61, and why Adam prefers Sam LaPorta to Harold Fannin Jr.
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Key Topics
- Risers: Tucker Kraft up 2.2 spots to 78 overall, Ryan Flournoy up 7.5 to 170, and Brian Thomas Jr. up 2.8 to 68 on DraftKings.
- Fallers: Jadarian Price down 1.4 to 61, Makai Lemon down 3.0 to 83, and Harold Fannin Jr. down 4.3 to 90 overall.
Takeaway #1 (5:48): Brian Thomas Jr. at 68 is the one that scares Adam the most as a fade
- Adam almost did not do this one because Jaguars wide receiver is such a hard spot. He thinks the offense will be good and has a lot of faith in Liam Coen, and he thinks the leap Trevor Lawrence took last year will be sticky. But similar to the Packers in years past, target share is going to be really flat across this group. Brian Thomas Jr. specifically scares him the most in terms of a fade.
- When Thomas hits, he hits in such a massive way because of where he runs routes — typically deep downfield — and because of his ability to score touchdowns. BTJ had 17 touchdowns on 68 catches in his final season at LSU and 10 touchdowns as an NFL rookie. He should also play a ton of snaps as the pure outside receiver and downfield threat in this receiving corps. The problem is that last season was so bad, and most of BTJ’s rookie production came late in the year with Mac Jones under center, not Trevor Lawrence.
- It is just really hard to get to 68 overall on BTJ from a math perspective if you want to give Travis Hunter wide receiver targets, get Parker Washington right, and get Jakobi Meyers near his impressive underlying performance throughout his career. Add in Brenton Strange and the Nate Boerkircher selection in the second round, and ETR is behind ADP on BTJ pretty decently. It makes Adam a little queasy, but he thinks it is right.
Takeaway #2 (1:19): Adam is buying Tucker Kraft when he slips past 78
- This is health optimism-related on Kraft. He tore his ACL in Week 9 of last season and also had some quote-unquote minor damage to his LCL and meniscus — that gives Adam a little bit of pause. But last week at OTAs, Kraft said he feels better than expected and expects to play Week 1 without any restrictions. Adam is not taking players at their word on their own rehab, and the Packers’ medical staff historically is notoriously conservative on injuries.
- That said, not 100% in Week 1 does not bother Adam that much, especially in best ball where all of the money is at the end. ETR is at 84 overall on Kraft right now, a little behind ADP. That feels fair for a player who saw just 5.9 targets per game in his seven healthy ones last year and is coming off the injury.
- Adam takes Kraft when he slips past ADP, and when he is setting up Jordan Love teams, which he likes this year. He does not want to miss on a guy like Kraft, who was playing like a top-three or top-four tight end before last year’s injury. But if he stays in the mid-70s, Adam is going to struggle to get him at that point.
Takeaway #3 (10:40): Makai Lemon at 83 is mostly a fade, Adam takes him at the 1.01 or 1.02 spot on the board to set up the Hurts/Lemon stack
- This might be a little injury-related — Lemon missed most of OTAs with a hamstring. Adam does not think it is a big deal, but it is generally not a great thing when rookies miss time leading up to Week 1. More importantly, ETR has a big fade on Lemon in the redraft and best ball ranks for two reasons.
- First, the Eagles are very much a run-first, heavy team that can suffer from big dips in quarterback play. Second, Lemon profiles as a slot guy best. Will he be a Jayden Reed or Josh Downs type who only comes on the field for three-receiver sets? That is possible. The Eagles should be disappointed if Lemon cannot beat out Dontayvion Wicks at some point this season.
- The bull case is real: Lemon beats out Wicks, gets that outside role in two-receiver sets, moves into the slot for three-receiver sets, and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion resets Jalen Hurts into an efficient season. It is a tough parlay at 83. The only time Adam is taking Lemon is when he can go Hurts and Lemon back to back to set up that stack and still grab Dallas Goedert later, who Adam thinks is undervalued.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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