Reynolds: Coach of the Year Awards Analysis

The NFL Coach of the Year award is the most broken award. Andy Reid, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, and Kyle Shanahan have combined for as many Coach of the Year wins as Kevin Stefanski, who has two himself. The absurdity of that sentence is an injustice of sorts, but it’s also why this is one of my favorite markets, because most people think the best coach wins, when that’s clearly not the case. Let’s dive into the trends of past winners:

Coach of the Year (COY) Trends

• 10 of the last 11 COY winners won at least 11 games, with former Giants coach Brian Daboll serving as the lone exception in 2022 behind a flash-in-the-pan 9-7-1 record
• Daboll is the only COY winner since Jimmy Johnson (7-9) in 1990 to win fewer than 10 games
• Eight of the last 11 COY winners beat their preseason win total by at least 3.5 games
• Over the last seven seasons, four COY winners had a win total of 8.5 or more
• Since 2013, only four COY winners had a preseason win total of 8.5 or more
• 10 of the last 11 COY winners won at least four games more than they did the previous season
• Eight of the last 11 COY winners were first-time winners, with Stefanski, Ron Rivera, and last year’s winner, Mike Vrabel, serving as two-time winners
• Four of the last 11 COY winners were first-time head coaches

Last Year’s Race

The 2025 COY race was the best and deepest example of this race since I began seriously tracking awards markets in 2009. Vrabel, Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald, Jaguars coach Liam Coen, Bears coach Ben Johnson, and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan were all serious contenders for this award. Vrabel, Macdonald, Coen, and Johnson were all traditional exceeders of expectations after taking over an unsuccessful team from the previous season. Sometimes, including Vrabel’s first win, a team that is expected to be competitive endures an excessive amount of major injuries, yet still makes the playoffs. Not only did Shanahan check that box last season, but you could argue he’s the active coach in the league who hasn’t won this award and deserves it most.

Ultimately, Vrabel’s Patriots went 14-3 against a historically easy schedule, despite having a mediocre roster themselves. Drake Maye was the runner-up in the MVP race, and he couldn’t have played much better last season, but Vrabel completely turned New England’s defense around as well, so he was a reasonable winner in a historically competitive race.

What We’re Looking for in a COY Candidate

At its core, COY is an exceeds-expectations award. The traditional path is a team with a sub-.500 record last year, that isn’t expected to be a playoff team this year, unexpectedly making the playoffs. The other path is impossible to predict, as it requires a team expected to contend making the postseason despite enduring an abnormal rash of injuries.

This market also changes the most in the last quarter of the season. I have seen insane swings in one week, so I generally only play long shots now in this market, where most of the time I get involved late.

So when betting in this market now, we are looking for a team with an 8.5 win total or worse, that was .500 or worse last year, with a realistic path to exceeding expectations this year.

To that end, let’s list the coaches who made the playoffs last year as relative cross-offs, as they’ll either need to be hit with injuries or spearhead a historic 16-1 or better season to really have a shot to contend:

• Mike Vrabel
• Sean Payton
• Jim Harbaugh
• Liam Coen
• DeMeco Ryans
• Joe Brady *
• Mike McCarthy *
• Sean McVay
• Kyle Shanahan 
• Mike Macdonald
• Ben Johnson
• Matt LaFleur 
• Dave Canales
• Nick Sirianni 

* Brady and McCarthy are both taking over teams that made the playoffs last season.

Interesting Candidates