Week 15 Recap
No recap this week as I’m vacationing with the family. The model did fine overall however in Week 15, and this week’s version has about as much out of sample predictive power as last week.
The Buy-Low model uses target share and air yards to estimate a player’s expected production in the passing game, then highlights the players that underperformed relative to expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production (in the form of catches and touchdowns) is not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise, and the model helps us do just that.
The out of sample r-squared for the model for this week is 0.49 (up 1 point from 0.48 in Week 15)
Editor’s Note: Before using the model, we strongly suggest everyone read Josh’s article introducing the concept here. We also recommend you listen to his interview with Adam Levitan in Episode 4 of the ETR podcast.
In general, pay most attention to the projection column as it reflects the value of the opportunity each player received. The next piece of information you should weigh is the size of the difference between what the model says a normal game from this player should be given his opportunity, and his actual performance in the recent past. The larger this difference, the greater the chance that the public will be fading the player, making him low-owned. And while we might be tempted to infer that larger differences might lead to a stronger “rubber band” regression effect, it’s typically the case that what dominates is the opportunity.
* Projection = The full-PPR projection the model gives for a player for the rest of the season based upon his opportunity in the previous three games.
* Actual = A player’s average PPR points per game over the past three games.
* Difference = The difference between projection and previous week result in full-PPR fantasy points.
Teams on BYE this Week are: NONE
- Jarvis Landry has been a better play than REDACTED all season long, and is the top buy low this week. There is a caveat, however. The math suggests that in the last week or two of the season that we can start to be confident in outlier defensive performances, particularly catch rate allowed. The Browns will be playing Baltimore, who has allowed the second lowest catch rate in the league this year, putting a damper on Landry’s prospects.
- Christian Kirk is back for a third week. Arizona blew up with a big week scoring in Week 15, but unfortunately all the touchdowns were funneled through Kenyon Drake and something called Dan Arnold. With Larry Fzitzgerald also on the list and Kyler Murray playing some of his best football to end the season, it seems AZ may be primed for a breakout performance against a Seattle team that has allowed teams to complete passes on them at roughly a league average rate.
- John Brown is a prototypical buy low model receiver. All it takes is one accurate deep throw from Josh Allen and he will help your team cash. Unfortunately, with Josh Allen that may be too much to ask most weeks. Hold your nose — but not your breath — and throw Smoke into a few lineups on the off chance they connect on a deep shot.