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Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Team Totals: Chiefs 28, Colts 21.5

I immediately took the over on Kansas City’s team total when this line came out and am willing to bet it as high as 29.5. Patrick Mahomes has historically shredded first-year Colts DC Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense — they met twice a year when Bradley coordinated the 2018-2020 Chargers and 2021 Raiders — and Mahomes combined to go 82-of-121 passing (68%) for 966 yards (8.0 YPA), a 9:0 TD-to-INT ratio, and a rushing average of 24.7 yards in their last three meetings. After beating the Chargers last Thursday night, the Chiefs are on a mini-bye here; Andy Reid’s post-bye winning history is well known. It helps that Mahomes should experience a clean pocket and passer-friendly coverage; Indianapolis ranks bottom six in sacks (3) and has allowed the NFL’s fourth-highest opponent QB rating (111.2). … Clyde Edwards-Helaire is arguably a sell-high candidate and Jerick McKinnon a must-own in all leagues after McKinnon out-snapped CEH 27 to 25 in Week 2 and they ran an equal number of pass routes (14). At Indy, I’m valuing Edwards-Helaire as a largely TD-or-bust RB2. McKinnon is a deep-league flex option.

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