Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 4

Welcome to the Week 4 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

The Sunday slate breaks down more evenly this week, with a better mix of interesting games in both the early and late windows. It is thin on surefire fast-paced matchups, however. Part of the problem is early-season play volume stalwarts like the Bucs, Chargers, Jaguars, and Raiders (?!) are playing in primetime. Sunday also features several fast-paced teams facing plodders — or in Buffalo, zombie Texans.

There is still plenty of meat on this bone, so let’s dive in. As always, “situation neutral”, which is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.

Up In Pace

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

The Cardinals have yet to play up to their blazingly fast reputation, but by no means have they been a slow offense. Arizona ranks mid-pack in situation-neutral pace, and they cranked up the tempo in Week 3 when the game was in doubt. Particularly while the Jaguars held the lead during the third quarter, the Cardinals used tempo on virtually every play before settling back down after Trevor Lawrence‘s prayer-six gave Arizona the lead for good. With the second-highest no-huddle rate, and contests that average 127 combined plays (11th) and 56 total points (3rd), these Cardinals remain scoring and play-volume catalysts.

A trip to visit the Rams should keep Arizona’s accelerator pinned for more than a portion of the game. Los Angeles is already finding their stride on offense, and just hung 34 on the Buccaneers in a high-scoring (58), high-play-volume affair (134 combined snaps). Rams games have averaged 52.3 points and only one fewer play per game than Cardinals contests (126). Los Angeles is throwing at the second-highest situation-neutral rate (68%), and their opponents’ pass rate ranks third highest (67%). Arizona likely won’t match that, as they have been relatively balanced. Yet, with Los Angeles now top 12 in situation-neutral pace after their third-place Week 3 finish, and going no-huddle at a higher rate during their two home games (14% versus 8%), neither team projects to let the clock grind for long.

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys