Thorman’s Snaps and Pace: Week 13

Welcome to the Week 13 edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.

After three underwhelming Thanksgiving games and a sideways Week 12 main slate, we have a more typical 11-game Sunday schedule to focus on. Of course, with four teams on bye, and the Cowboys, Bills, and Chiefs playing in primetime, matchups between quality uptempo offenses are hard to come by. Fortunately, there are a few games pitting fast offenses against each other, even if one side is a decided underdog.

As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.

Up In Pace

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

There are several reasons why we are unlikely to see a repeat of the Week 2 matchup in which these teams produced a combined 73 points and 129 snaps. Calvin Ridley played a central role for the Falcons. Divisional rematches typically don’t have the scoring punch of the initial meetings. Matt Ryan is calcifying at a Roethlisbergian rate. Yet there are still plenty of aspects that should lead to a paced-up Week 13 result. The obvious indicator is the Buccaneers almost always foster a fantasy-friendly environment. Their games produce, by far, the league’s most total points (54.5), and they are tied for the second-most average combined plays (128.9; overtime adjusted). No team passes more (68%) or has a higher opponent pass rate (72%) during neutral situations.

Tampa Bay operates at the fourth-fastest situation-neutral pace. Over the last two weeks, they’ve begun incorporating more no-huddle — registering the sixth-highest rate during that span (18%). The Falcons rank 11th in pace, although they’ve slowed down of late. Atlanta is still passing at the ninth-highest situation-neutral clip on the season (61%), but they have slid to mid-pack over the last month (57%). Unlike in Week 2, the Falcons are facing a banged-up Buccaneers defense — especially in the secondary — and feature the seventh-worst-graded coverage unit themselves. Atlanta is allowing the third-most scoring on a per-snap basis, and Tampa Bay leads the league in points-per-snap. The Buccaneers are an 11-point favorite and, when in advantaged game scripts, operate at a top-10 pace. Clearly the Tampa Bay side is more interesting, but in a potentially voluminous late-season dome game, we can do worse than sprinkle Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts in among our Buccaneers.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears