Welcome to the Championship Week edition of Snaps & Pace, where we examine trends in play volume and game pace. It is meant to be a 30,000-foot view of upcoming contests, with the goal of identifying which matchups will — and which will not — be played on fertile fantasy soil. For a primer on why this is important, click here.
It has been an even windier road than usual to fantasy Championship Week, so a huge congrats if you are playing for your league’s title this weekend. For the rest of the losers out there, at least there is a hefty 14-game DFS main slate and leftover Christmas ham to ease the pain.
Sunday is still a long way off in terms of Covid news and weather developments, so be sure to keep an eye on Silva’s Update Log and the mountain of later-week ETR content flowing right up until kickoff. There is much to talk about, so let’s dive right in.
As always, “situation neutral” is meant to provide context, refers to plays while the game is within seven points during the first three quarters (minus the final two minutes of the first half), and is derived via the intrepid RotoViz Pace Tool.
Up In Pace
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Now that the Kansas City offense is again clicking in its customary fashion, focus shifts to their standout performance on the other side of the ball. The Chiefs’ defense is undeniably playing well, albeit almost entirely against impotent offenses. The highlight on their hit list came in Week 11 when they shut down the Cowboys (with a beat-up OL and no Amari Cooper), and is filled out by kicking in the teeth of Daniel Jones, Jordan Love, Derek Carr twice, Teddy Bridgewater, and a sack of curdled eggnog stuffed into a Ben Roethlisberger jersey. It is by no means a fraudulent unit, but it remains vulnerable to quality offenses — as Week 15 against the Chargers displayed. Chiefs games produce the fifth-most combined plays and eighth-most total points. Kansas City passes at the sixth-highest situation-neutral rate (63%), and it was rising over the last month (66%) even before Clyde Edwards-Helaire was injured. The Chiefs score the ninth-most points on a per-snap basis despite averaging the fourth-most plays per game — and they operate at the league’s third-fastest pace.
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