Waiver Wire Analysis: Week 4

The 2023 waiver wire has been particularly fruitful for savvy fantasy managers. Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Jerome Ford have all emerged from relative obscurity to be top-24 options at their respective positions.

Heading into Week 4, can fantasy managers panning for gold on the waiver wire continue to strike it rich? It’s certainly possible, with a handful of rookies headlining this week’s crop of waiver wire targets. Let’s dive in.

As a reminder, here are explanations for each section of the article. Read the descriptions below to determine whether “Home-League Waiver Targets” or “Deeper-League Targets” is more relevant for your particular league:

• Home-League Waiver Targets: This section focuses on the typical “home league” with friends, family members, and co-workers. These leagues typically include starting lineups of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2-3 WRs, 1 TE, 1-2 FLEX, 1 K, 1 D/ST, and 5-7 BENCH spots. I will use ESPN & Yahoo rostership percentages to gauge which players are available in a typical league. To qualify as a waiver target, the player must be rostered in <40% of leagues on either Yahoo or ESPN.
• Deeper-League Targets: This section will be focused on deeper leagues, which typically have additional starting lineup slots and deeper benches compared to the typical home league. Drafters who play in tournament contests on FFPC, NFFC, or similar should find this section helpful. To qualify as a deeper-league target, the player must be rostered in <50% of leagues on FFPC Main Event leagues.

For each list, I will rank the players in order based on how I would prioritize adding them to your teams. I will also include a “drop list” of commonly rostered players that I would be comfortable parting ways with in order to add these targets to your team.

Top 10 Home-League Waiver Targets

De’Von Achane

Rostership: 40% Yahoo, 16% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 50-70%

De’Von’s Week 3 performance was off d’Achane: 18 carries for 203 yards, four catches for 30 yards, and four combined TDs. Achane’s Olympic straight-line speed was on full display, breaking off huge chunk plays including a 67-yard TD run to give Miami a 69-20 lead in the fourth quarter. Nice. Now, the hard part. How do we react to Achane’s slate-breaking 50-point performance on the wire? On the one hand, Miami’s offense is firing on all cylinders through three weeks, and Achane made a convincing case that he should lead the RB room in opportunities going forward. At the same time, teammate Raheem Mostert was also extremely efficient (scoring four TDs himself), and still firmly led the backfield in snaps prior to fourth-quarter garbage time. While I expect Achane to remain ahead of Jeff Wilson Jr. (he’s set to return from I.R. as early as Week 5) and Salvon Ahmed (groin), I don’t see any reason for the Dolphins to go away from Mostert, who’s averaging nearly 6.0 yards per carry on the season. Going forward, I expect close to a 50/50 committee in Miami, with perhaps a slight edge to Mostert for high-value touches. An explosive player tied to an elite offense with paths to leading his team in RB touches, Achane is certainly worthy of No. 1 waiver priorities and a hefty 50-70% FAAB bid, but I personally am not unloading the entire FAAB clip on him in Week 4. 

Tank Dell

Rostership: 30% Yahoo, 23% ESPN

FAAB Recommendation: 10-25%

Though I recommended Tank Dell as a top-10 waiver wire add heading into Week 3, the majority of Yahoo and ESPN fantasy managers fell asleep at the wheel, as he remains largely unowned. Tank Dell made them pay with five catches for 145 yards and a TD on seven targets. Dell has now led the Texans in targets in back-to-back weeks and has a chance to emerge as C.J. Stroud’s preferred WR alongside Nico Collins and Robert Woods in Houston. I’m once again recommending adding Dell’s prolific production profile off the wire heading into Week 4 as a WR3/4 with breakout upside. WR-desperate teams searching for near-term starters can justify spending up to 25% of their FAAB on Dell.

Rashee Rice