Episode Summary: Ranking 2026 Rookie Year 1 Landing Spots (May 6, 2026)
Adam Levitan and Evan Silva rank the top 20 rookie landing spots from the 2026 NFL Draft for Year 1 fantasy outlooks. Jordyn Tyson lands at No. 1, and Evan would put him in his own tier, with ETR currently at 68 overall in DraftKings best ball. Antonio Williams sneaks all the way up to No. 6, and Evan calls it one of the best landing spots of any rookie skill-position player in the draft. Plus, a discussion on Fernando Mendoza’s start count, the Carnell Tate/Cam Ward connection in Tennessee, and where Jeremiyah Love’s tough Cardinals landing spot ranks.
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Key Topics
- Top five landing spots: Jordyn Tyson (Saints), Jadarian Price (Seahawks), Carnell Tate (Titans), Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals), KC Concepcion (Browns).
- Sleepers and middle tier: Antonio Williams (Commanders), Caleb Douglas/Chris Bell (Dolphins), Denzel Boston (Browns), Fernando Mendoza (Raiders), Kaytron Allen (Commanders), Makai Lemon (Eagles).
Takeaway #1 (1:05): Jordyn Tyson is the clear-cut No. 1 landing spot. Evan would put him in his own tier
- Adam Levitan: Tyson lands in a spot where he has immediate playing time, given the lack of competition and the draft capital he got. He gets Kellen Moore, who Adam considers highly capable and highly up-tempo, plus 10 dome games. The Saints’ defense is really shaky, especially the pass rush and corner play, which can lead to a lot of shootouts. The offensive line play got better with David Edwards there and Erik McCoy back healthy.
- Evan Silva: Tyson should be in his own tier. He garnered elite draft capital at the No. 8 overall pick, and he joins a pass-catcher corps where Chris Olave is an alpha. But there is not enough talent beyond him — Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, and Devaughn Vele are all clear-cut role players — Tyson can get fairly close right away to where Olave is in market share.
- Evan Silva: ETR is at 24 overall on Olave and 68 on Tyson in the DraftKings best ball ranks. Mike Clay’s initial projections have Saints QB Tyler Shough finishing fourth in the NFL in passing yards. Tyson is not going to be the No. 1 option right away, but there is going to be so much production to go around. They have to move him up past 68 and near the top 50.
Takeaway #2 (16:11): Antonio Williams to the Commanders is one of the best skill-position rookie landing spots
- Adam Levitan: Williams lands in a spot where Treylon Burks is the WR2 right now. Jayden Daniels wants to throw to the slot, but Luke McCaffrey just is not it. Yes, everyone expects Brandon Aiyuk and/or Jauan Jennings to land in Washington, but Adam thinks that is far from a lock. As it sits right now, this is an awesome landing spot.
- Evan Silva: Antonio Williams had one of the best landing spots of any rookie skill-position player in this draft. Terry McLaurin is a No. 1 receiver and not that young. Even if you have skepticism about Williams’ talent because he was a third-round pick out of Clemson, Mike Renner did not. Mike Renner was big on Williams. Jayden Daniels can be an elevator of the players around him.
- Adam Levitan: If you are using ETR’s ranks for best ball, Williams is rising really fast — about 15 spots in the last week. ETR is struggling to keep up because they are factoring in an unlisted target share for veterans not yet on the team. With every week that goes by where those guys are not signed with the Commanders, ETR will keep getting Williams a little higher.
Takeaway #3 (23:51): Adam would bet the over on 12.5 starts for Fernando Mendoza
- Evan Silva: Evan has been covering the NFL for 20 years, and the Raiders have never been good. He really believes the Raiders are going to become good in large part because of Tom Brady, Klint Kubiak, John Spytek, who had a really nice draft, and, of course, Fernando Mendoza and Brock Bowers, who is an absolute demon. The arrow is pointing up on the offensive line.
- Adam Levitan: The major negative on the landing spot is Kirk Cousins. People are out there in May saying Cousins will play the whole season and start 10+ games. Cousins will be 38 soon, has massive concerns around sustaining health and sustaining quality play. Adam has watched a lot of recent Cousins games where he just does not have any juice in his arm.
- Adam Levitan: Adam would bet the over on 12.5 starts for Mendoza. He thinks the over/under should be 12. Mendoza’s ADP is 154 right now and ETR is roughly in line with the market on that. Adam would be shocked if Cousins plays well enough to hold the job for more than a month.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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