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Looking at historical win rates by draft position, the 12 spot is perennially one of the most challenging spots to win from. However, across a large enough portfolio, it is worthwhile to consider how we can maximize our chances even when against the odds. In this article, I consider what a “Perfect Draft” could look like from the 12 spot, only drafting players with ADPs worse than where I’d be drafting. After each of the turns, I’ll talk through what guys I am considering and give insight into how I may be adjusting my strategy as the draft evolves.
ROUND 1/2 (PICKS 12 and 13)
Players I am considering: Stefon Diggs, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon
My picks: Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones
This first decision and what positions are taken is most impactful for how the rest of the draft will play out. Stefon Diggs is extremely tempting in this spot. Getting arguably the most consistent WR with weekly No. 1 WR potential would be a great addition to any team. However, as I look through my portfolio, I only have one share of Diggs on any of my teams this year (compared to Aaron Jones currently being my highest-owned RB). This is the result of a few factors. First, when building a Hyper Fragile build, I prefer to have two solid RBs as my anchors. Given I don’t love any of the RBs traditionally available at the 36/37 pick, I prefer trying to hit on two guys with RB1 potential and giving myself a chance at having the best RB combo of the draft. Second, when taking RB-WR, I am afraid I’ll just have a worse version of that combo when compared to teams like CMC + A.J. Brown or Dalvin + D.K. Metcalf. Third, when drafting Stefon Diggs at the 12/13 turn, you’re setting yourself up to either not get a stack with him or significantly reach for Josh Allen (he has an ADP of 51.6 and you would either have to take him with the 37th or hope he drops all the way down to your 60th pick). This isn’t a dealbreaker for me but worth being considered.
And when comparing to the other options, I am bullish on both Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones for all of the reasons outlined by ETR. Both guys are the type of floor-ceiling combos I am looking for in my Hyper Fragile-build RBs, giving me the confidence to not draft another RB for a few rounds.