GPP Leverage: Week 4

Welcome back for the fourth NFL GPP Leverage column of the season. If you missed the Week 1 edition of GPP Leverage, I recommend you take a minute to read the intro to get a feel for the goals of this column.

Last week in Leverage, we focused on late swap, as there was a significant amount of ownership projected to come in the late window of games. Although ownership concentrated in the late slate of games as expected, it was the early slate of games that produced the best fantasy environments, with the best fantasy performance at every position coming from the early window.

Week 4 sets up as our second consecutive main slate where late swap should play an important factor, and it will arguably be even more crucial this week than last. As a result, I want to treat this week’s column as a continuation of last week’s, and we’ll focus once again on how we can think about the Week 4 slate from a late-swap perspective. If you’re new to NFL DFS, or still trying to wrap your head around how to use late swap on a macro level, I suggest reading the intro to the Week 3 Leverage column before continuing on.

This week, we’ll quickly walk through the late window of games to consider which games will carry ownership and which games will provide opportunities to pivot off the chalk. Then, we’ll go game by game through a handful of matchups in the early window to consider which games may provide the best opportunities to roster high-upside, contrarian leverage pieces.

Late-Window Games

• IND @ LAR (4:05 p.m. ET) will likely be the chalkiest game of the week, and we are projecting significant ownership for a handful of players on both teams in this matchup. It will be crucial to gain early information if we want to stack this game in the late window. 
• JAX @ SF (4:05 p.m. ET) shouldn’t carry too much ownership outside of Christian McCaffrey. I expect most fantasy options from this matchup to see ownerships in the high single digits, making it a solid spot to utilize late swap if needing to pivot off the chalkier games.
• BAL @ KC (4:25 p.m. ET) is the other strong pivot option in the late window. It has the potential to attract the least ownership of any game in the late window and should be one of the best matchups for contrarian options on the slate. Neither team is expected to carry significant ownership, but this game has the second-highest total of the slate and could be a great environment for fantasy production if volume concentrates more than we’re projecting.
• CHI @ LV (4:25 p.m. ET) will garner significant interest and ownership, especially after both teams offered multiple slate-winning fantasy performances in recent weeks. Although this game may not carry quite as much ownership as the Colts-Rams game, it will still carry enough that it will be crucial to gain early information before committing to a game stack from this matchup.