Underdog ADP Disagreements in the Top 100

Drafting the correct structures is important. Player takes are arguably more important.

After my first few hundred drafts of the summer, I’m going to be covering a few of the Underdog ADPs that ETR rankings and I disagree with the most. To quantify the disagreement, I’m using a simple Ranking Difference Percentage (RDP): ETR rank divided by Underdog ADP. An RDP below 100% means ETR is higher on the player than the market, while an RDP above 100% means ETR is lower. For example, Sam LaPorta has an RDP of 86%, suggesting he is roughly 14% undervalued by ADP relative to ETR rankings. Malik Nabers has an RDP of 135%, suggesting he is roughly 35% overvalued. This is not meant to be a perfect measure of value, but it gives us a quick way to identify the biggest disagreements.

Let’s kick off with the players for whom ADP is too low.

Top 100 ADPs that are too low

Sam LaPorta: ETR rank = 84, ADP = 97.3, RDP = 86%

So far, there’s one player with a top-100 ADP to whom I have 20% exposure: Sam LaPorta. When healthy, LaPorta has regularly produced like an elite tight end, with one of the highest weekly ceilings at the position. He’s tied to a good offense, has a locked-in role in all personnel groupings, and is already back to participating in practice following his back injury late last season. Given that, and injury/offense concerns with the tight ends near him in ADP (Harold Fannin Jr. and Kyle Pitts), I expect his ADP to rise significantly once training camp begins. Through 175 drafts, I’m at 20%.

Davante Adams: ETR rank = 36, ADP = 51.2, RDP = 70%

With a ranking of 36, Adams is a clear value, even with some age and touchdown regression in play. Still, the Rams are likely to be one of the best offenses in the league, and Adams has one of the best red-zone roles in the NFL. At the 4/5 turn, Adams is competing with a slew of other good picks, as our rankings are also ahead on Terry McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Colston Loveland, and Jaylen Waddle in that range. So far, I’ve been playing the ADP game, taking McLaurin and Loveland ahead of Adams, despite our higher ranking on him. Right now, I’m at 8%. However, now that the risk of the Rams adding A.J. Brown is gone, I plan to prioritize him more, hopefully bumping my exposure to the 10-12% range.

Terry McLaurin: ETR rank = 41, ADP = 45.7, RDP = 90%
Jayden Daniels: ETR rank = 57, ADP = 66.9, RDP = 85%

Speaking of McLaurin, we have him ranked a few spots behind Adams, though still ahead of ADP. While McLaurin isn’t as much of a value, he unlocks a stack with Jayden Daniels, who is the quarterback we have ranked furthest ahead of ADP. Together, the two form arguably the most undervalued st