Episode Summary: Market Monday Returns – 2026 Best Ball ADP Risers & Fallers (May 4, 2026)
Market Monday is back. Adam Levitan opens the 2026 best ball season with six of the biggest ADP risers and fallers from the past week. He is buying Jayden Reed at 95 because the Packers should throw more, slowing down on Jadarian Price now that his DraftKings ADP is at 59.6, and passing on Bhayshul Tuten at 58 with LeQuint Allen Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr. capping his volume. Plus, where he is on Brandon Aiyuk, RJ Harvey’s role behind J.K. Dobbins, and his thoughts on Jonathon Brooks.
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Key Topics
- Risers: Jayden Reed up to 95 overall on DraftKings, Jadarian Price up to 59.6, and Jonathon Brooks up to 132 on positive knee news.
- Fallers: RJ Harvey down to 80.9 on Underdog, Brandon Aiyuk down to 158, and Bhayshul Tuten down to 58.7 on DraftKings.
Takeaway #1 (2:02): Jayden Reed at 95 is a buy. Packers stacks with Reed are an early favorite
- Reed only played six full games last year due to injury, and his route share in those games was 55%, 84%, 67%, 65%, and 52%. The Packers view him as a slot guy who plays in 3-WR sets. They have repeatedly shown they are not interested in playing him in 2-WR sets, no matter how much we want it.
- Not because he is suddenly going to start playing 2-WR sets. The buy is about the Packers being so much thinner at wide receiver this year, the solid contract extension Reed just got in the wake of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks moving on, and Jordan Love being a top-10 QB on a per-dropback basis. Expect the Packers to be significantly more throw-heavy this year.
- If Christian Watson or Matthew Golden gets hurt or needs plays off, maybe it is Reed over Savion Williams or Bo Melton in 2-WR sets. Packers stacks including Jayden Reed are some of Levitan’s favorites early on in the best ball tournament streets.
Takeaway #2 (4:18): Jadarian Price’s ADP has caught up really fast at 59.6
- Seattle ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation last season and their quarterback is Sam Darnold, a pocket sloth. That setup leads to an insane amount of running back carries. In 2025, the Seahawks gave running backs 435 carries in 17 regular-season games. Kenneth Walker III chose the Chiefs in free agency, and Price went 32nd overall.
- There is a really wide range of outcomes here. On the high end, Price is a 14-17 carries-per-game guy, the clear feature back on early downs, scores double-digit touchdowns, and Zach Charbonnet’s knee keeps him out or limited through almost all of the regular season. On the low end, Price loses snaps early to Emanuel Wilson and George Holani as a rookie with questionable pass-game skills, then Charbonnet returns and Price is a bit player.
- Getting him in the 70s or late 60s was one of the big values of the first few days of best ball. At 59.6 on DraftKings, Levitan is starting to slow down. He is taking more Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Jameson Williams, Terry McLaurin, and Mike Evans in this range, especially on full-PPR DraftKings.
Takeaway #3 (14:39): Bhayshul Tuten at 58 is a pass. Get him in the 70s in July or August
- Ryan O’Halloran and John Shipley, who cover the Jaguars, are guessing it will be a relatively even rushing share split between Tuten and C-Rod this season. ETR has it roughly that way in projection, too. The reason the ranking gap is so big in ETR’s best ball ranks (64 on Tuten, 117 on C-Rod) is that we are layering in Tuten’s efficiency, ceiling, and pass-game profile.
- Liam Coen clearly likes Chris Rodriguez Jr. He coached him at Kentucky, had some glowing quotes, then brought him to Jacksonville in free agency. They are also going to use LeQuint Allen Jr. in most clear passing situations. Tuten’s volume upside is capped, and his goal-line upside might be capped also.
- We are going to get quotes on C-Rod and reports from the beat writers about him taking first-team reps. A lot of people will not want to take a piece of a three-back committee in Tuten, who does not have a track record at 58 overall. Adam thinks he can get Tuten later in the process, July or August in the 70s, if not later.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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