Fantasy Fallout: Panthers Trade for Baker Mayfield

The Panthers have been the team most associated with Baker Mayfield throughout the offseason, and they finally made their move to acquire the 27-year-old on Wednesday afternoon, trading a 2024 fifth-round pick in exchange for their new QB1. NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo indicated that incumbent starter Sam Darnold will force a QB competition, but we fully expect the former first overall pick to win the job and be out there for Week 1. And the Panthers’ Week 1 game has turned into must-watch TV, as the Browns will travel to Carolina to face off against the QB that earned them their only playoff appearance in the past two decades.

Let’s take a look at how ETR’s projections changed as a result of this trade.

BAKER MAYFIELD

Projection: 366.5 completions on 580.7 attempts (63.1%) for 4,238.0 yards, 22.8 TDs, and 16.2 interceptions. QB27 on Underdog.

• Mayfield has a better shot at starting all 17 games than Darnold did. We can’t rule out the possibility of the Panthers turning to third-round rookie Matt Corral if the 2022 season is an abject disaster, but the acquisition of Mayfield decreases the odds that Carolina implodes on itself during the season. With that in mind, we currently have Mayfield projected as if he’s going to start all 17 games.
• It’s difficult to peg exactly what the Panthers plan to do on offense, as they had a significant philosophy change midseason after Joe Brady was fired for not establishing the run enough. It’s unclear whether Matt Rhule wants to establish it in 2022 or if he’s willing to be pass-happier with a more competent QB.
• What is clear is that Mayfield raises both the floor and ceiling of the Carolina offense. Darnold averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt last season. The Panthers as a whole were at 6.0 yards per throw — the second-worst mark in the NFL. Mayfield has never had a professional season below 7.2. Mayfield was also having a fine campaign in 2021 before a Week 6 shoulder injury torpedoed his efficiency metrics.

• Mayfield lacks the efficiency upside and rushing acumen to warrant consideration as anything more than a fringe top-24 option, but he’s an okay QB3 option. We currently have him as the QB26 in our best ball rankings.

OTHER PANTHERS PLAYERS

• Christian McCaffrey was our 1.01 before this trade and remains our highest-ranked player with Mayfield in town. We have him projected for 1,967.2 total yards and 11.8 combined rushing and receiving TDs.
• Mayfield is the best QB D.J. Moore has ever played with. With Darnold and Matt Corral as the only signal-callers in town, we had Panthers QBs averaging 7.0 yards per attempt and throwing a touchdown on 3.5% of all passes. With Mayfield, those numbers jump to 7.3 and 3.9%, respectively. We didn’t change Moore’s target share with the QB switch, but his projected yardage and touchdown output both increased slightly. As a result, he moved up a spot or two in our rankings. We have Moore projected for 86.5 receptions, 1,149.0 yards, and 5.8 TDs on 146.0 targets.
• Robbie Anderson had a more noticeable jump in our rankings, as it’s easier to move up in the double-digit rounds than it is in Round 3. He is now our WR58, 118th overall on Underdog. We were already ahead of ADP on Anderson on account of his robust target volume last year, and the QB upgrade will only help his outlook. His current projection is 51.1 catches, 740.3 yards, and 4.7 TDs on 89.9 targets.
• Other Panthers pass catchers — Terrace Marshall, Tommy Tremble, etc. — also moved up in our rankings.

SEAHAWKS FALLOUT

• The Mayfield trade to Carolina obviously closes the door on him landing in Seattle, which is bad news for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Neither moved in our rankings as we have had Drew Lock and Geno Smith as the projected QBs there all offseason, but there was previously some hope that they could get a QB upgrade via trade. Maybe they still end up with someone better than Lock, but it seems unlikely the 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo within the division, and there just aren’t many other options out there at this point.