Each week in this space, we’ll look at how fantasy football ADP has changed across real money drafts over the past week. The goal is to learn how drafters playing for cash prizes are reacting to news, injuries, and more to build their teams. Finally, at the bottom of the article, we will pull out the takeaways we think are important to understand from these moves.
To listen to a breakdown of this info in a short audio format, check out the Establish The Run Podcast (Episode released Monday afternoon).
We cover ADPs for Underdog Fantasy, FFPC, and NFFC. In the future, we will add “home league” ADP to this report.
- The Baker Mayfield effect is real, as he, D.J. Moore, Robbie Anderson, and Terrace Marshall crack the top risers lists in various spots. Even with the move up, we’re bullish on D.J. Moore as a Top-15 WR in the third round. We remain meaningfully ahead of ADP on Robbie Anderson as well but are not optimistic for a bounce-back Terrace Marshall sophomore campaign. Baker Mayfield is our QB26 in most formats.
- On Underdog, the rookies are starting to fall. Inside the Top 100, Treylon Burks and Kenneth Walker each moved down a handful of spots while Drake London and Skyy Moore dropped two spots each as well. We’re buying the dip on all of these players in this range.
- The rookie ADP fall extends outside of the Top 100 on Underdog as well, with David Bell, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, and Jameson Williams all falling. We think these falls are more appropriate, and it makes it possible to get some exposure to these options who we’ve generally been below market on for most of the offseason.
- The Gabriel Davis steam is getting out of control on Underdog. He’s up to an ADP in the fourth round. He’s one of our favorite breakout players this season, but that ADP is about as rich as we’d go. Davis is also rising in home-league ADP, but still only up to the 6/7 turn there, where we love him.
- It seems like we say this every week, but the panic on the Cleveland Browns is opening up buying opportunities on Amari Cooper and David Bell; they can succeed at these new price tags without Deshaun Watson.
- Tyler Badie is starting to get some love as a late-round RB flier. He’s not someone we’ve had ranked as a target, but if Dobbins/Edwards are delayed by their returns from injury, Badie has a path to early-season playing time.