I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a tricky slate due to the extremely expensive RBs being in incredible spots, as well as Ja’Marr Chase underpriced for his spot. Things got even tougher once Drake London (hip) was scratched late.
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I thought it was close between Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson. I looked at teams with both. In fact, the team I had in before the Drake London news was Tyler Huntley at QB, and all three of JT, Bijan, and Ja’Marr Chase (more on that below). But given the $700 savings with Bijan over Breece, I considered Bijan a lock on DK. I wasn’t going to pass on his absurd pass-catching role in addition to a plus rushing matchup as a big home favorite in a full-PPR setting. On FanDuel, where the price gap was just $200 and it’s more TD-heavy, I played Taylor.
* DeVonta Smith has the talent to be Jalen Hurts’ No. 1 receiver. With AJ Brown out and a clean home matchup against the Giants, he was in a great spot to show it. I did prefer Smith to Chris Olave, although it helped that I already had Olave on FanDuel.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I only considered two QBs for cash, and we only listed two in Top Plays: Bo Nix ($6000) and Tyler Huntley ($4300). Given the matchup against a Bears defense missing its top-3 CBs and already 32nd in yards per play allowed, I would’ve been totally fine playing Huntley at this price. Nix has been bad at worst, inconsistent at best all season. But the ceiling in this home game against a Cowboys defense we had as the best possible matchup for QBs was more than acceptable.
* Derrick Henry at his cheapest price since 2019 ($6000) would’ve been a “must” if Lamar Jackson was playing. But with Tyler Huntley, Henry was both less likely to catch passes and less likely to score TDs. I preferred Rachaad White for $400 more in a very good spot against the Saints with no Bucky Irving again. White’s pass-game role plus goal-line role has been elite while Bucky been out.
* There were a ton of viable tight end plays. Dalton Schultz projected for a ton of targets relative to his price with both Nico Collins and Christian Kirk out. Dallas Goedert was already a decent play at $4200 with his red-zone role against the Giants, and became a very strong one once AJ Brown was ruled out. The best way to fit in 2+ stars on this slate was to go double tight end.
* I thought the Bengals were the best “punt” D/ST. I would’ve been fine with Giants $2100, Saints $2300, or Ravens $2800. But given the slate context, getting to the elite ones like Bills, Falcons, Patriots, Colts was not something I wanted to do. Justin Fields’ sack rate and the overall dysfunction of the Jets made me actually like getting to CIN at $2700.
* Ja’Marr Chase was close to a “must” at $8100 against the hapless Jets with no Sauce Gardner and gunslinging Joe Flacco at the controls. We reeled in Chase’s projected target share some because our models suggested a wild 34.5% baseline here. And he projected as our best WR salary-adjusted value. The only reason I did not consider Chase a must was because it was difficult to play two of the elite RBs with him. And I thought that JT + Bijan was a viable strategy.
* When Drake London (hip) was ruled out about 90 minutes before lock, I wanted Darnell Mooney at $4400. He’s been hurt and terrible this year, but this was a massive opportunity for him in a dream matchup against the Dolphins.
So I blew up the team I had in. I went from Tyler Huntley, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylin Noel, Saints D/ST to Bo Nix, Rachaad White, Darnell Mooney, and Bengals D/ST. We had the Mooney side well ahead in projection, but I did think the access to Taylor’s absurd ceiling made it close. In the end, I was worried Noel would lose too many routes to Braxton Berrios, and passing on Mooney at $4400 wasn’t ideal.
On FanDuel, I looked at Mooney teams but really liked what I had. The price gap between Chris Olave and Mooney there was just $600, and I preferred Olave. On DraftKings, that price gap was $1400. So I stuck with the team I had on FD before the London news.
Week 8 Results
I hedged a ton this week across sites. Jonathan Taylor on FD but not DK. Darnell Mooney on DK but not FD. Bijan Robinson on DK but not FD. Jaylin Noel on FD but not DK.
Typically when I do that, I’m going to struggle to win on both sites. And that was the case this week, as I had a monster week on FD and got smoked on DK. I’ll have to think about it more, but I do think moving everything to get Mooney on DK was right. But perhaps I should’ve found a way to get Jonathan Taylor in as well, even if it wasn’t clean – his role and matchup and skill level set up an outrageous play.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
