Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 11

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 11. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

Week 11 Bye Week: Colts and Saints

DL Rankings – Week 11

1. Texans
2. Broncos
3. Browns
4. Rams
5. Packers
6. Vikings
7. Eagles
8. Seahawks
9. Steelers – Edge rusher Alex Highsmith missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a pec injury.
10. Giants
11. Lions
12. Chiefs
13. Patriots
14. Jaguars
15. Bills
16. Bucs
17. Titans
18. Cardinals
19. Cowboys
20. Falcons
21. Ravens
22. 49ers
23. Colts – DT DeForest Buckner is on short-term injured reserve until at least Week 14 with a neck injury.
24. Raiders
25. Saints
26. Jets
27. Chargers
28. Dolphins
29. Commanders
30. Bears
31. Bengals
32. Panthers

OL Rankings – Week 11

1. Eagles
2. Bills
3. Broncos – LG Ben Powers is on short-term injured reserve due to a biceps injury that is expected to keep him out until Week 12 or 13.
4. Colts
5. Bucs
6. Commanders
7. Rams
8. Bears
9. Chiefs
10. Vikings
11. Steelers
12. Patriots
13. Lions
14. Cowboys
15. Panthers
16. Ravens
17. Seahawks
18. Jets
19. Jaguars
20. Cardinals
21. Falcons
22. 49ers
23. Giants
24. Saints
25. Packers – C Elgton Jenkins fractured his leg in Week 10 and is out for the year.
26. Browns
27. Dolphins
28. Bengals
29. Titans
30. Texans
31. Raiders – LT Kolton Miller was placed on short-term injured reserve after Week 4 and is still expected to be out this week.
32. Chargers

Biggest Week 11 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Texans DL (1st) > Titans OL (29th)
2. Packers DL (5th) > Giants OL (24th)
3. Steelers DL (9th) > Bengals OL (28th)
4. Jaguars DL (14th) > Chargers OL (32nd)
5. Rams DL (4th) > Seahawks OL (17th)

Biggest Week 11 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Vikings OL (10th) > Bears DL (30th)
2. Commanders OL (6th) > Dolphins DL (28th)

DL > OL

1. Texans DL > Titans OL

Key matchups: Edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. vs. OTs Dan Moore and JC Latham

Notes: The Texans’ DL ranks seventh in pass-rush win rate, 20th in pressure percentage, and 14th in sacks per pass attempt. The Titans’ OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 29th in pressure percentage given up, and 31st in sacks per pass attempt given up.

Houston has the best edge-rushing duo in the league with an elite overall defensive infrastructure around them to squeeze protection plans even more. The Titans have shaky tackle play, particularly at left with Dan Moore regressing this season, which will be a huge issue against Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. This front had 22 pressures in their first matchup in Week 4 and is playing even better now, which cements this as the clear-cut top mismatch of the week.