I play around 60% of my action each week in “cash games.” Cash games refer to any contest in which roughly 50% of the field gets paid out, such as head-to-head, double up or 50/50. I try to get as much head-to-head action as I can every week and then supplement that with other cash games. I make one cash lineup for DraftKings and one for FanDuel.
Each week, I’ll review my cash-game lineups in this space. Sometimes I’ll lose, but hopefully I’ll win more often. Either way, I’ll post it here and give you my thought process.
This was a similar slate to the Week 11 slate. We had to find the money to spend up at tight end, and also had to make a decision (on DK) on whether to prioritize a RB (Jahmyr Gibbs) or a WR (Amon-Ra St. Brown).
Note: Unless stated otherwise, the discussion below is about DraftKings.
MY MUST PLAYS
* I expected a run-heavy gameplan from the Packers for two reasons. First, when you’re facing inept JJ McCarthy it’s unlikely you’ll need to take risks in the pass game. And second, the Vikings’ blitz-heavy style can get run on. Most importantly, we did not expect that gameplan to change just because Josh Jacobs (knee) was out. We were effectively getting Emanuel Wilson in the Jacobs role, but for just $5300. Wilson was our No. 3 salary-adjusted value in RB projections, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs and Chase Brown.
* The Giants came into Week 12 ranked 31st against RBs in our DvP data. Jahmyr Gibbs’ targets per route run also spikes massively with Sam LaPorta (back) off the field. So even though we expected David Montgomery to mix in plenty, that was baked into projection. And Gibbs was our No. 1 salary-adjusted value at RB.
* As noted last week, it’s difficult to understate the impact Semaje Perine’s absence has on Chase Brown. He’s going to play 85%+ of the snaps, and more importantly stay on the field for all passing situations in addition to all base work. So even in a tough-ish matchup against the Patriots, the $6200 was far too cheap to fade.
* Trey McBride was the same story as last week. There were no viable punts at TE on DraftKings, and McBride is operating as the No. 1 for an extremely pass-centric and PPR-friendly offense. The advantage McBride provides over all other tight ends is impossible to ignore. So even though McBride was $800 more than last week, he was still a must on DK. Note that on FD, the $8500 tag was extremely difficult to fit… even though I wanted to.
* Michael Wilson was coming off a 15-185-0 performance while earning 31.6% of the targets. Marvin Harrison (appendicitis) was out again. I wasn’t going to overthink this one at $4800.
On FanDuel, I’d note that the final 3v3 I looked at was ARSB, Michael Wilson, and Luther Burden vs. Tee Higgins, Jameson Williams, and Wan’Dale Robinson. I hated passing on Wilson at just $6300 on FD, but I just couldn’t get comfortable enough with Luther Burden in cash.
MY WANT PLAYS
* I wouldn’t call Jacoby Brissett a must because the spot was tougher this week, and he was more expensive. If you wanted to play Jameis Winston for $700 less or Jared Goff for $700 more, I think that would’ve been fine. But in reality I was always playing Brissett, who has been so accurate on incredible volume.
* I certainly liked defenses such as Seahawks, Ravens, Packers, Raiders. But on a tight slate, I needed to save money and we had two great options: Saints against the crust of Kirk Cousins, or Browns excellent pass rush against Geno Smith and a Raiders OL ranked 31st in Brandon Thorn’s latest. This lineup had the $400 to get to Browns D/ST.
* I did not love playing Jakobi Meyers. He’s underperformed all year, and I think the Jaguars are losing faith in Trevor Lawrence as a thrower/decision-maker. Perhaps I could’ve played something like Christian Watson over Jakobi, but I decided to trust the projections here. We had Jakobi for 13.0 DK points, and Watson for 10.6.
* Jameson Williams is not the kind of WR I typically play in cash. We are typically looking for less volatile, more volume-driven players. But with Sam LaPorta out and Dan Campbell changing JaMo’s route tree, I felt really good about his volume here. Add in the dome setup against a Giants team ranked 28th in yards per play allowed, and I was fine with it. Note that JaMo’s ceiling projection was outsized compared to base, and I think that matters… even in cash.
Week 12 Results
The projections team just continues to smash. We had Gibbs, Emanuel Wilson, and Chase Brown as the clear three to play on both sites. When you get RB right in cash, it makes everything else easy. I actually had this team in as my “dummy” team on Friday, and never changed. A straightforward week, as the best cash season of my life continues.
YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS
Week 1 DraftKings: 111.32 points, won 37.0% of head-to-heads
Week 2 DraftKings: 145.40 points, won 76.5% of head-to-heads
Week 3 DraftKings: 168.68 points, won 70.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 DraftKings: Did not play
Week 5 Draftkings: 192.22 points, won 87.5% of head-to-heads
Week 6 DraftKings: 153.92 points, won 56.8% of head-to-heads
Week 7 DraftKings: 186.04 points, won 94.9% of head-to-heads
Week 8 DraftKings: 95.48 points, won 11.4% of head-to-heads
Week 9 DraftKings: 179.04 points, won 86.8% of head-to-heads
Week 10 DraftKings: 189.72 points, won 86.4% of head-to-heads
Week 11 DraftKings: 154.88 points, won 75.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 DraftKings: 200.28 points, won 77.0% of head-to-heads
Week 1 FanDuel: 114.22 points, won 92.3% of head-to-heads
Week 2 FanDuel: 119.00 points, won 95.2% of head-to-heads
Week 3 FanDuel: 149.42 points, won 82.6% of head-to-heads
Week 4 FanDuel: Did not play
Week 5 FanDuel: 177.7 points, won 89.4% of head-to-heads
Week 6 FanDuel: 149.62 points, won 90.1% of head-to-heads
Week 7 FanDuel: 160.44 points, won 66.7% of head-to-heads
Week 8 FanDuel: 158.18 points, won 100% of head-to-heads
Week 9 FanDuel: 120.2 points, won 42.9% of head-to-heads
Week 10 FanDuel: 137.32 points, won 58.8% of head-to-heads
Week 11 FanDuel: 94.9 points, won 46.7% of head-to-heads
Week 12 FanDuel: 158.56 points, won 52.2% of head-to-heads
* Note: Win percentages do not include ties.
