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Well, that’s a wrap on another long and eventful PGA regular season! We saw the first year of elevated events, lots of LIV drama, and some great dustbag events, but all good things must come to an end, and now we get three weeks of small, stacked fields that will make it a bit harder to differentiate. Nevertheless, there are edges to be had, and some old friends of ETR are in the field, so let’s see what we can find, shall we?

 

For the uninitiated, the FedEx Cup was launched in 2007 as a way to add some playoff flavor to a sport that, shall we say, lacked the anticipation and excitement of the World Series or Super Bowl. The tour has pumped money into the prize pool to keep players happy, with the FedEx Cup champion this year earning a whopping $18 million, and even 10th place taking home a cool $1 million. While in past years the top 125 on the points list have earned a spot in the first round of the playoffs, this year the opening field shrinks to 70. After the first event, that number is whittled down to the top 50 for the BMW, and the top 30 will tee it up at East Lake for the finals. There is no cut at any of the playoff events.

The first round of the playoffs, for the second straight year, will be held at TPC Southwind, a tour mainstay that has hosted a number of different events since 1989. While the format of the St. Jude Championship has changed considerably over the years, we have a lot of data on this course. Southwind plays to a par of 70 and measures just over 7,200 yards, making it a pretty standard course by tour standards. It is a classic TPC course in all the traditional ways, designed for entertainment, exciting finishes, and drama; there are low scores to be had, but big numbers lurk at every turn. Think TPC Sawgrass, Twin Cities, and Scottsdale. The course plays a bit tougher than average, but the winners in the past few years have gotten to double digits under par, and that should happen again this week.

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This subscription is a collaboration between ETR and pro sports bettor Rufus Peabody of Unabated Sports. Inside, you can find simulation based fantasy point projections (mean and ceiling), ownership projections, odds to make the cut, with content from Adam Levitan, Peter Jennings, and more.

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