Episode Summary: Market Monday – May 25 (May 25, 2026)
Adam Levitan returns with Market Monday. He is waiting for Malik Nabers‘ ADP to drift to Round 4 before getting exposure, after more negative John Harbaugh quotes and PUP speculation. He is also hunting the bottom on Rashee Rice after the Dallas County jail stint and a knee cleanup, with Xavier Worthy at 112 as the cheap leverage play. Plus Calvin Ridley at 188 as a late-round WR dart throw, Josh Downs as a buy at 110, and Tank Bigsby as one of the cleanest one-injury-away running backs in fantasy at pick 186.
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Key Topics
- Fallers: Malik Nabers down 5.6 spots to 28 overall on DraftKings, Rashee Rice down 11.1 to 27, Calvin Ridley down 6.2 to 188, and Chig Okonkwo down 8 to 152.
- Risers: Josh Downs up to 110 overall and Tank Bigsby up 4.4 spots to 186 overall.
Takeaway #1 (1:19): Malik Nabers is not a full fade. Adam waits until ADP drifts toward Round 4
- Not only did Nabers tear the ACL in his right knee, but he also tore his meniscus last season. He was still on crutches in January, had knee stiffness throughout the process, and had another cleanup procedure a few weeks ago to remove scar tissue. The Giants used to say training camp was the goal. Now they say Week 1 is the goal. Meanwhile, you see guys with clean ACL tears like Patrick Mahomes dropping back seemingly normally and playing golf.
- More negative John Harbaugh quotes hit this week, plus beat-writer speculation that Nabers could start the season on PUP. Adam has zero interest in fully fading Nabers this season. His ability to command targets is wild, the Giants do not have much competition there anyway, and all of the money in best ball is in the final two to three weeks. Adam would not want to bet against Nabers getting 12 targets in Week 16 at Detroit or Week 17 at Dallas.
- The real question is when the negativity around Nabers bottoms out. He is still going to miss OTAs and almost certainly will not be out there for the start of camp, and people are going to get more scared. ETR is at 35 overall on DraftKings on Nabers right now, and Adam expects ADP to sink toward that. Once he can get Nabers closer to Round 4, that is where he will get his exposure. Until then, it is not for him.
Takeaway #2 (3:52): Hunting the bottom on Rashee Rice. Xavier Worthy is the cheap pivot at 112
- Rashee Rice was on probation, got caught smoking weed, and was immediately sent to jail. A week earlier, he had a cleanup procedure on his right knee with a four- to six-week rehab timetable. Adam is not too worried about the knee. It was not a serious surgery, and they are still three and a half months from Week 1. The bigger concern is a potential suspension. The NFL has gotten much more lax on marijuana, but Rice is a special case. Silva’s point is that Rice is embarrassing The Shield.
- In 2024, Rice got busted driving 120 miles per hour, got in a crash, and fled the scene. In May 2024, he allegedly punched a photographer. In February 2026, he was accused of domestic violence, with the legal case still open. Now this probation violation. ETR was at 18 overall on Rice before the latest cleanup and jail time. Now ETR is at 29 on Underdog and 25 on DraftKings, and is actually thinking about getting lower than that. Rice is a better play on full-PPR DK.
- Xavier Worthy is up big in ADP. The Chiefs are trying to pin Worthy’s miserable 2025 season on the shoulder injury he took when bumbling meathead Travis Kelce ran into him. Adam does not know that he would buy that, but the cost is so low. At Worthy’s 112 ADP, with the Rashee Rice suspension possibilities plus the 2025 injury excuse, there is a path to taking shots on him.
Takeaway #3 (11:51): Tank Bigsby at 186 is one of the cleanest one-injury-away backs on the board
- One strategy Adam does not want to forget about for best ball this year is just betting on chaos and injuries at the running back position. As running backs are getting pushed up in the draft and getting more expensive, there is just more opportunity cost and more downside if they get hurt. Historically, that has won a lot of money in fantasy. It has not been a great strategy lately because running backs have stayed healthier than the baseline expectation.
- If Saquon Barkley were to go down, Bigsby is the very direct backup. Adam thinks Bigsby can play. The new Sean Mannion scheme is more under center and more Shanahan-like, which is also good for Bigsby. He is still only 23 years old, he accrued 5.9 yards per carry for the Eagles last year on a small sample of 58 carries, and he would certainly play in short-yardage scenarios if Saquon went down. Will Shipley is in more of a pass-down-only role.
- The pass-catching outlook and standalone value are pretty bleak for Bigsby, which is why Adam is not going overboard. But he always wants to understand which running backs are truly one injury away, and Bigsby is one of the cleanest. The cost is so cheap. If Barkley went down, Adam thinks Bigsby would outperform other contingent options. He likes Bigsby late at 186 overall.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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