Episode Summary: 2026 NFL Awards Markets w/ Ryan Reynolds (June 9, 2026)
Adam Levitan was joined by Evan Silva and Ryan Reynolds to break down the 2026 NFL awards betting markets. Joe Burrow at 10:1 is Adam’s favorite MVP bet on the back of the third-easiest schedule and a healthy version of the QB, who threw for 43 touchdowns in 2024. Kenneth Walker III at 35:1 for Offensive Player of the Year makes sense after his Super Bowl LX MVP run and a big Chiefs contract. And Evan thinks Micah Parsons at 50:1 for Defensive Player of the Year is an opportunity we may never get again. Plus, Fernando Mendoza for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Kevin O’Connell at 30:1 for Coach of the Year, the Bengals at 22:1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Saints at 3:1 to win the NFC South.
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Key Topics
- Award markets: MVP (Burrow, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels), Offensive Player of the Year (Walker, A.J. Brown, Brock Bowers, Chris Olave, Jonathan Taylor), Offensive Rookie of the Year (Fernando Mendoza, KC Concepcion, Zachariah Branch), Defensive Player of the Year (Micah Parsons, Abdul Carter, Dexter Lawrence), Coach of the Year (Kevin O’Connell, Ben Johnson, Klint Kubiak, Andy Reid, Dan Quinn), Comeback Player of the Year (Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, George Kittle).
- Team futures: Bears to win NFC North (+325), Lions under 10.5 wins, Jaguars to win AFC South (+245), Saints to win NFC South (+320), Saints to win NFC (50:1), Bengals to win Super Bowl (22:1).
Takeaway #1 (6:31): Joe Burrow at 10:1 is Adam’s favorite MVP bet
- Adam Levitan: The Bengals have the third-easiest schedule this season. Burrow has had one healthy season in the last three. In 2024, when he sustained health, he threw for 4,918 yards, 43 touchdowns, completed over 70% of his passes, and threw just nine interceptions. Insane stuff.
- Adam Levitan: That same year, Burrow still finished only fourth in the MVP race because the Bengals won just nine games. The Bills won 13, and Josh Allen won MVP. If the Bengals win 13 or 14 this year and Burrow stays healthy, Adam really thinks Burrow has a really good chance — people forget how good he is because he has been hurt so much. Feel-good story angle: He has been in the league a while, finally sustains health, and goes nuts.
- Ryan Reynolds: Reynolds asks two questions on every MVP candidate: Can this be the most productive quarterback in the league? With Burrow, the answer is absolutely. Record-wise, can they have the best record in the conference? At least on the table. Cincinnati has a 10.5-game win total, and 11 or 12 wins puts them in play. The defense is probably in the bottom third of the league, but the way the Bengals will win games is by outscoring opponents on Burrow’s back.
Takeaway #2 (26:43): Kenneth Walker III at 35:1 for Offensive Player of the Year
- Evan Silva: Walker just won Super Bowl MVP. The Chiefs gave him a really big contract. Evan thinks he is going to be the every-down back — the Chiefs are debating who the No. 2 back is. We know he has that explosive big-play ability, and we know he can catch at this point in his career. Coming out of Michigan State, that was a question mark. It is not a question mark anymore.
- Evan Silva: Walker could be the focal point of the Chiefs’ offense for a while. Patrick Mahomes is coming back from his knee stuff. Rashee Rice, who knows. Travis Kelce is awfully old. Walker could be the fulcrum, the Chiefs’ offensive focal point this season.
- Adam Levitan: Adam has been taking Walker a lot in early Round 2 in best ball. He agrees with Evan that Walker can catch and will catch plenty of balls. There are still pass-protection concerns — you cannot be out there if you are going to get Mahomes killed. If they get into a 2-minute drill or 3rd and long, it might be someone else. But Adam agrees that Walker will see 300+ touches. 35:1 is ridiculous when Malik Nabers is at 30:1 and probably starting the year on PUP.
Takeaway #3 (34:10): Micah Parsons at 50:1 for Defensive Player of the Year
- Evan Silva: This is an opportunity to bet on Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year at 50:1. Evan understands Parsons is probably not going to play until maybe Week 3 or 4. But by Week 18, if he racks up 17 sacks, voters are not going to care that he missed the first three or four games of the season.
- Adam Levitan: We may never get this opportunity again. Parsons has a history of winning awards — NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, three-time first-team All-Pro, the Butkus Award. If he can get his legs underneath him in the second month of the season and just go absolutely berserk the rest of the way, we know he is capable of doing that. The encouraging part is that guys are coming back from clean ACL tears faster, stronger, and better than ever.
- Ryan Reynolds: Parsons is going to win one of these — Reynolds does not know if it is this year or next year. The current timeline of mid-October would be tough. But, as Evan said, if he really goes nuts late and ends up with 16 sacks and Green Bay makes the playoffs, he is going to be in the hunt. There have been exceptions to the “lead the league in sacks” requirement, like Trey Hendrickson a few years ago.
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About Establish The Run
Establish The Run was founded by Adam Levitan and Evan Silva, two of the most respected analysts in fantasy football and sports betting. ETR delivers high-quality, actionable analysis across season-long, best ball, DFS, and props.
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