It’s the last day of the season, and you know it’s going to be wild when it comes to random guys going off. Guys like Jordan McRae have come out of nowhere to break slates on the last day of the season, and that’s going to happen somewhere today. Most of the teams have been light on injury reports overall, so spotting the surprise DNPs will be huge. Teams like the Pelicans have already DNP-CD’d guys that were healthy, so don’t assume you know even most of the news based off the injury report. Value will be coming.
With that, the actual “matchup” factor of this column is kind of pointless, so instead I just went over available players for each team and mentioned likely caps or possible caps for key rotation players. The notes in the game aren’t really stat driven like usual, and they’re more about the quotes from coaches on what to expect. Hold onto your butts.
Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors, 1:30 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Nuggets 29th, Raptors 11th
Nuggets expected starters: Jamal Murray, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Raptors expected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol (note: honestly, would be surprised if this lineup starts, but nothing else to go on)
Injury news: Serge Ibaka (knee) is questionable, OG Anunoby (knee) is questionable, Oshae Brissett (knee) is out, Gary Harris (hip) is still out, and Will Barton (knee) is also out again.
Nuggets rotation notes: Available Nuggets: Jamal Murray (possible cap), Monte Morris, P.J. Dozier, Torrey Craig (possible cap), Troy Daniels, Michael Porter Jr. (possible cap), Keita Bates-Diop, Tyler Cook, Paul Millsap (likely cap), Jerami Grant (possible cap), Nikola Jokic (possible cap), Mason Plumlee, Bol Bol.
Raptors rotation notes: Available Raptors if no Serge and OG: Kyle Lowry (possible cap), Fred VanVleet (possible cap), Terence Davis II, Norman Powell (possible cap), Paul Watson, Matt Thomas, Malcolm Miller, Stanley Johnson, Pascal Siakam (likely cap), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Marc Gasol (likely cap), Chris Boucher, Dewan Hernandez.
*Coach Nick Nurse said earlier this week that he’d mix it up with some rest, some extended rotations and some limited minutes. There’s also been talk of a “rotating rest” schedule, so you would think that it’s Pascal Siakam and/or Marc Gasol’s turn. I’d really be careful on Siakam, but FVV and Lowry could be OK because they already got their rest in there.
*Mike Malone is a wild card here, especially after he admitted he went through Jamal Murray’s 22-minute limit to get him to 39. Murray didn’t play at all in the fourth quarter on Wednesday with Malone going to his bench for most of the frame (some MPJ), and he’s said he wants to get Murray stretched out a bit. He might have a shot at 28 minutes.
*There really hasn’t been any management for the Nuggets besides Millsap and Murray (Grant was legit hurt). That could mean this is the day we see Jokic limited, but honestly everyone is just guessing here. Malone did say he’s “more worried about us” when asked about playing Utah, so that could mean he wants to play his guys a little more. It could mean he just sits them.
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers, 4:00 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Heat 27th, Pacers 22nd
Heat expected starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Solomon Hill, Meyers Leonard, Chris Silva (note: Tyler Herro may come off the bench, but I love him regardless)
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Edmond Sumner, Alize Johnson, JaKarr Sampson
Injury news: Victor Oladipo (ankle) is out, T.J. Warren (plantar fasciitis) is out, Myles Turner (neck) is out, Goga Bitadze (knee) is questionable, Jimmy Butler won’t play, Goran Dragic is out, Bam Adebayo is out, Jae Crowder (knee) is questionable, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Derrick Jones Jr. is questionable.
Heat rotation notes: If no Jae Crowder, Iggy and Derrick Jones Jr., here are the available Heat players: Kendrick Nunn (likely capped), Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson (likely capped), Solomon Hill, Meyers Leonard, Chris Silva, Udonis Haslem, Kyle Alexander and Kelly Olynyk (likely capped).
Pacers rotation notes: If no Goga, available Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon (likely capped), Aaron Holiday (possible cap), T.J. McConnell, Naz Mitrou-Long, Edmond Sumner, Justin Holiday, Brian Bowen, Doug McDermott, JaKarr Sampson, Alize Johnson, T.J. Leaf.
*Coach Nate McMillan dropped a pretty big hint that he’s managing his guys for this one. “Whoever is on that court tomorrow we’ll be competing to win the game,” he said.
*Tyler Herro is coming off a career-high 30 points, and coach Erik Spoelstra has really talked him up for his effort. Herro has said he wanted to start, but Spo said Herro has “unique creativity” and has applauded his effort. “That process even started last summer by Coach Quinn spending countless, endless hours putting the ball on the floor,” Spoelstra said. “He finishes with both hands. What Tyler had already was a feel for getting the ball in the basket and the unique creativity that he has.” He should be a chalky play, even off the bench.
*After Wednesday’s game, Spo said he changed his plan on rest when he found out Indiana won. That means there’s some heavy rest coming here. Without Gabe Vincent to disrupt the ball-handler minutes, Herro and Nunn should both be able to get into the 20s, especially Herro with the big upside. If all the Q guys are out, Solomon Hill may have to play a decent amount of minutes just because of the lack of forwards. Plus, a limited Duncan Robinson could get some Nunn and Herro overlap.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. LA Clippers, 6:30 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: Thunder 21st, Clippers 8th
Thunder expected starters:
Clippers expected starters: Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Injury news: Patrick Beverley (calf) is out, Montrezl Harrell (personal) will sit out again, Landry Shamet (foot) will miss this one, Luguentz Dort (knee) is out after his injury on Wednesday, Chris Paul (hand) will miss his first game of the bubble, and Dennis Schroder is still out.
Thunder rotation notes: Available Thunder players: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (likely capped), Devon Hall, Hamidou Diallo, Terrance Ferguson, Deonte Burton, Abdel Nader, Danilo Gallinari (likely capped), Darius Bazley, Andre Roberson, Steven Adams (likely capped), Nerlens Noel (likely capped), Mike Muscala, Kevin Hervey.
Clippers rotation notes: Available Clippers: Reggie Jackson (possible cap), Lou Williams (likely capped), Terance Mann, Amir Coffey, Paul George (likely capped), Rodney McGruder, Kawhi Leonard (likely capped), Marcus Morris (likely capped), JaMychal Green (possible cap), Patrick Patterson, Ivica Zubac (likely capped), Joakim Noah.
*Hamidou Diallo was an interesting play when SGA sat, but foul trouble really derailed him. With Lu Dort out and SGA probably capped, Diallo should be an interesting play. DIallo also has played some point in the bubble.
*You’d think Gallo gets a heavy cap, and it’s not crazy to think Bazley sees some time at SF to keep his momentum going. The Thunder do have some bodies at forward, but they’re really thin at guard if SGA is capped. Devon Hall could be a low-key option as a punt with somewhat safe minutes.
*Joakim Noah will probably get his shot here. He was signed if Zubac had struggled, but Zu has been lights out. Terance Mann has also had some bright spots, and coach Doc Rivers may want to evaluate him vs. Amir Coffey as his emergency G in the playoffs. The Clippers didn’t want to part with Mann in the Marcus Morris trade and he has a lot of positional flexibility. If Doc pulls his guys to start, it could make Mann a very attractive play.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Houston Rockets, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals:
Pace rank: 76ers 19th, Rockets 2nd
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Joel Embiid (note: Embiid isn’t really injured, so probably just a sharp cap on him)
Rockets expected starters: James Harden, Ben McLemore, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Injury news: Russell Westbrook (quad) is out, Joel Embiid (ankle) is questionable, Glenn Robinson III is questionable.
76ers rotation notes: Available 76ers if no Embiid and GR3: Shake Milton (possible cap), Raul Neto, Josh Richardson (likely cap), Alec Burks (possible cap), Furkan Korkmaz (possible cap), Matisse Thybulle (possible cap), Marial Shayok, Al Horford (likely cap), Kyle O’Quinn, Norvel Pelle.
Rockets rotation notes: Available Rockets: James Harden (possible cap), Austin Rivers (possible cap), Chris Clemons, Eric Gordon, Ben McLemore, Michael Frazier, Danuel House (possible cap), Jeff Green, Robert Covington (likely capped), DeMarre Carroll, P.J. Tucker (likely capped), Bruno Caboclo (two years away from being two years away from being capped).
*So you would think that Harden gets capped here, especially now with Russell Westbrook set to miss games in the postseason. Still, maybe he doesn’t? We already know that Harden has been able to override Mike D’Antoni in a scrimmage game, and Harden is such a psycho that he probably wants a run at Bubble MVP (probably no shot). And it’s helpful for him that he did get a rest game. Just about all the studs have minutes management coming and there’s a lot of value out there, so Harden is still a really good play unless we get stunning news he’s out.
*The Joel Embiid stuff is annoying. The two times he was hurt, it looked to be very minor. Basically, it’s fair to think the 76ers just pushed the eject button at the first sign of trouble. Plus, after the injury, an on-site Philly beat said that Embiid was set for limited minutes. For now, I’d expect him to get 15-20 minutes in the first half and that’ll be that. The problem is it makes it really tough to roll KOQ or Pelle unless we see he’s out.
*If the starters get managed in this game, you might want to look at Chris Clemons on the Houston side. Philly is really tough here unless it’s a sit fest or we get a quote from Brett Brown because he’s stressed rhythm and the 76ers haven’t been able to get that at all due to injuries.
