Brooklyn Nets (105.3, B2B) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (124.8), 1:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Nets, 11th, Bucks 1st
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Nets 14th, Bucks 9th
Nets expected starters: Chris Chiozza, Tyler Johnson, Garrett Temple, Lance Thomas, Rodions Kurucs
Bucks expected starters: Eric Bledsoe, Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Injury news: Jarrett Allen (rest), Caris LeVert (thigh) and Joe Harris (back, hamstring) are all out, Jamal Crawford (conditioning) is questionable, Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton are off the injury report, Wes Matthews is doubtful.
Nets rotation notes: Hit on the injury fall out below.
Bucks rotation notes: They likely won’t be playing their rotation much in the second half.
Went in detail on the Nets in the Injuries to Watch, so just going to drop that here with really the only issue you’d care about is minutes regarding the injuries: What does that mean for rotation? Well, it’s actually not terrible and let’s first assume Crawford sits here. We know the guard rotation will be including Chris Chiozza, Tyler Johnson and Jeremiah Martin will be in the mix. It makes sense to shift Tyler Johnson over to SG more after his start at PG on Sunday, and start Chris Chiozza with Martin as his backup (was slotting in at straight PG2 before Johnson got into the mix in scrimmages). Johnson could be a sixth man, but chances are he starts because the Nets have previously wanted to try to use Dzanan Musa as a PG back before they added Kyrie. If Crawford is a go, Tyler would be much more likely to start, and that would make it really tough to go with Martin as a desperation play. Moving to the forwards, it’s pretty much a lock that Garrett Temple is going to start here, and he’ll likely have Musa help spell him with Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot and/or Justin Anderson helping fill in to soak up minutes with Lance Thomas. You would assume that Rodions Kurucs is going to have to start at the five and Donta Hall would be behind him. This might be the biggest blowout of the bubble.
So against this Nets team, you assume this game is done at half or maybe even the first. The Bucks starters do have the best offense of any lineup with 20 minutes at 142.0, so it’s not crazy to think some guys can get close to value in the first half. If you wanted to look at garbage time Bucks in a GPP, you could take a look at Thanasis Antetokounmpo, D.J. Wilson and Frank Mason.
Matchup Helps: Bucks starters in the first half
Matchup Hurts: Bucks starters in the second half
Dallas Mavericks (121) vs. Sacramento Kings (115.5), 2:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Mavericks 22nd, Kings 17th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Mavericks 8th, Kings 28th
Mavericks expected starters: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis
Kings expected starters: De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Richaun Holmes
Injury news: Seth Curry (leg) is doubtful and Alex Len (conditioning) is questionable.
Mavericks rotation notes: Delon Wright has 21 minutes with Luka in two games, Trey Burke has 30 (because he was hot vs. HOU), Maxi has 26 minutes without KP (30 with).
Kings rotation notes: Harrison Barnes, Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Aaron Fox are the only plays over 12.5 first-half minutes per game over the last two (around 17 each), garbage time cut some minutes, Buddy’s minutes are way down (more below).
The Kings continue to get smashed on by opposing offenses with the second-worst defensive rating in the bubble (Blazers). Digging a little deeper, they have an absurd 170.6 defensive rating in their 24 minutes during first quarters so far and they’re also roasted in the third (119.6), so starting units are doing work on them in two games (Kings starting unit has a 133.3 D rating in 20 minutes). In the two games, they have been destroyed on drives with the Spurs scoring 34 points off drives and the Magic shooting 80% on their 35 drives, so drive-machine Luka figures to have some success. Luka is also even more ball-dominant than usual with 11.7 minutes of having the ball in his hands in two games (one OT game helps, 8.8 season average, Trae leads league at 9.1) and Luka is also driving even more than usual at a ridiculous 30 times per game in the last two (shooting 63.0%). It could be a big afternoon. With Seth Curry likely out, the Mavs are likely going to mix it up with Trey Burke, Delon Wright, Maxi Kleber and probably Justin Jackson getting minutes. Carlisle seems to be pretty comfortable with Boban Marjanovic filling in some minutes, so that could put Maxi Kleber in the first unit to slot Boban in as the C2. Of course, you can’t really use Boban if Maxi isn’t starting and he’s always risky (garbage time?). You can certainly consider Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kristaps Porzingis in this matchup.
Buddy Buckets sitting at just 20.0 minutes per game is certainly a surprise. Maybe it’s because he recovered from COVID-19. Coach Luke Walton did say that getting Buddy going again is one of his top priorities along with the lack of physicality right now. Hield has just a grand total of 14 minutes of overlap with Bogdan in two games. Hield saw just two minutes in the third against the Spurs with nine in the fourth. Richaun Holmes hasn’t blocked any shots and has a grand total of just seven defensive rebounds, and part of that is because there aren’t many rebounds to get with his D rating being 126.2 and the ball is just going through the hoop too much. He’s going to have to be away from the basket a bunch on KP, so the blocks and boards may not be there again. Fox will probably see a lot of DFS, but he’s still a fine play because this game should have some scoring.
Matchup Helps: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Maxi Kleber
Matchup Hurts: Buddy Hield
LA Clippers (119.8) vs. Phoenix Suns (110.8), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Clippers 5th, Suns 14th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Clippers 19th, Suns 7th
Clippers expected starters: Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Deandre Ayton
Injury news: Montrezl Harrell (personal) remains out, Lou Williams (quarantine) is questionable and is eligible to play, Kelly Oubre (knee) is out, and the Suns did not provide an update on Aron Baynes (not on injury report).
Clippers rotation notes: Lou Will should be coming back to cut down usage all around (had 40.5 in one scrimmage).
Suns rotation notes: Cam Johnson continues to start at 32.4 minutes, Suns aren’t exactly managing Rubio like they said (32 in last game), Booker at a 35.4 usage rate, Mikal only at 13.6 after a big run in scrimmages, Cam Payne slotting in as the backup behind Rubio, five minutes of Payne with Rubio in two-PG lineups.
The Suns are 2-0? Yep. They’ve actually been doing it with defense at a sixth-ranked bubble defense, and a 10th-ranked offense. Although, they have allowed some top-heavy scoring with a Luka 40 spot and KP dropping 30 on them, but so far they’ve held down the wings in Washington and Dallas. Speaking of wings, Kawhi and PG-13 may have to deal with Lou Will coming back to cut into some usage. It ain’t no thing but a chicken wing for Kawhi with some solid splits with Lou and PG, but George does take a significant hit based on the usage and he might be a bit of an OutKast when it comes to shots. The Suns have also been shredded on drives to also give Kawhi an opportunity.
The Clippers interior defense has been spotty and Ayton has actually done some damage on them in the season at a 22/15/3 line over 30.5 minutes. With Booker likely getting locked down, the usage may also have to come from someone like him. As mentioned in notes, the Suns aren’t managing Rubio, and going 2-0 should really help his chances against a sub-100% Pat-Bev so far.
Matchup Helps: Kawhi Leonard, Deandre Ayton
Matchup Hurts: Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges
Orlando Magic (113.3) vs. Indiana Pacers (B2B, 111.8), 6:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 24th, Pacers 20th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Magic 16th, Pacers 26th
Magic expected starters: Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Injury news: Jonathan Isaac (knee) is out for the season, Victor Oladipo should be back after resting on Monday, expecting Brogdon to play (more below).
Magic rotation notes: The Magic will have to go back to Wes Iwundu more at the three to open up a little more run for Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis minutes should be safer (not a play), Khem Birch continues to sub in ahead of Mo Bamba.
Pacers rotation notes: Oladipo is back after resting in a back-to-back set, no overlap of T.J. McConnell with Brogdon.
The Magic surprisingly have the second-best offense, which comes after coach Steve Clifford had mentioned his team won’t look right to start the Disney run. Their starters have been absolutely smash mode with a 137.2 O rating in. Markelle Fultz got up to a seven-minute stint in the fourth quarter of a blowout against the Kings, so you would think today’s the day he takes over as the starter. Vooch has said repeatedly that he likes going up against smaller fives, and that’s not the case here. Although, he was decent against him earlier with 34 minutes on the floor together at a 18/17/3 line in those 34, and last year he put up a 25/8/4 line per 36 over a 108-minute sample. Aaron Gordon is coming off a big first half in a dream matchup against the Kings, and he’ll have a pretty solid matchup against T.J. Warren.
It’s a back-to-back set here and there was a lot of talk of the Pacers cutting down Brogdon’s playing time during the scrimmages. Well, that didn’t happen in his first game back as one of the best players on the PG slate at 20/7/6 over 35 minutes. Nate McMillan said he was going to monitor Brogdon’s minutes, and after some Twitter searching I found another instance that McMillan was going to “monitor” Oladipo’s minutes back in 2018. He played 37 minutes. Based on Brogdon’s comments after the game, you’d think he’s a go. “That’s the benefit of this bubble. We’re not having to travel,” he said. “Flying in the air three or four hours to the next city takes a real toll on your body. The dehydration, the lack of sleep, all these things add up. This back-to-back won’t be as bad.” McMillan also said that he could tell that he hadn’t been playing in the last couple days, but at this point it would be a surprise to see him sit out. With Dipo back, it may be tough to look at Holiday, and maybe Warren won’t be going nutso like he has in the last two. The Magic haven’t had any major rotation players do damage against them in two games with no starter at 18 points with Caris LeVert’s 17 coming in inefficient fashion (Harry Giles and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot are the high guys against them because of garbage time). I wouldn’t chase Warren here.
Matchup Helps: Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Malcolm Brogdon
Matchup Hurts: Myles Turner
Boston Celtics (111.5, B2B) vs. Miami Heat (108.5, B2B), 6:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Celtics 18th, Heat 23rd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Celtics 18th, Heat 25th
Celtics expected starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis
Heat expected starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Injury news: The Heat won’t submit their injury report until later, and nobody is on the Boston report.
Celtics rotation notes: Kemba will be moved up incrementally again.
Heat rotation notes: Kelly Olynyk went from eight first-half minutes in the opener to 14 on Monday (17 and 16 in second halves).
Kelly Olynyk has been one of the out-of-the-blue studs at 18.5 points per game in the last two (75.7 TS%), and he was dumb hot in the scrimmages at 17.0 points in just 21.8 minutes (70.8 TS%). Coach Spoelstra talked to Meyers Leonard about getting bumped out and Spo said he will have this starting lineup for at least this one. Olynyk gets a revenge game, so he’s on the board. The Heat should be pretty steady with their rotation, and Bam finally is in a decent spot after having some conditioning issues in the first and getting Toronto D on Monday. You may want to make sure Dragic is in on the B2B after his big Monday game.
First and foremost, the Celtics get the Nets tomorrow, so you would think that Kemba gets the day off on Wednesday. Last time they were trending him up back in March, they upped him four minutes each over the three-game run, so you’d guess they up him either three like last time or maybe four. He looked really good and he’s pretty cheap on FD. Kemba trending up does cut into the upside of Tatum and Brown after their big games.
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown
Matchup Hurts: Jimmy Butler
Houston Rockets (123.8) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (120.3), 9:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Rockets 2nd, Blazers 19th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Rockets 21st, Blazers 3rd
Rockets expected starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker
Blazers expected starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic
Injury news: Jaylen Adams (back) is probable, Eric Gordon (ankle) is out and Bruno Caboclo (ankle) is X days away from being X days away.
Rockets rotation notes: Starters getting heavy burn together at 41 minutes in two games, tightest rotation in the league.
Blazers rotation notes: Same eight-man rotation in each (Trent Jr., Whiteside, Hezonja off bench).
This game has some very eye-catching potential. Since the bubble started, the Blazers are first in O rating and last in D rating while the Rockets lead in pace at four in O rating and sixth-worst in D rating. Among 20 lineups with 20-plus minutes at Disney, the Blazers starters are the worst five-man lineup in the league at a 139.6 D rating. The Rockets have tried to incorporate some more action into their offense, and you just know coach Mike D’Antoni is going to find a way to get Carmelo Anthony switched on James Harden and/or Russell Westbrook. The Rockets playing at the fastest pace in the league with two players sitting at near 40 minutes per game (OT in one, of course), it’s really hard to not be pumped for Harden and Westbrook. This is going to be a score fest.
Thanks to an OT frame, the Blazers starting guards are first and third in the league in total possessions played (Dame, Westbrook, C.J.). After a brutal first half against the team he’s struggled against the most, Dame played the full second half for 22 points and 10 dimes. The Rockets may try to trap Dame a bit, and maybe that can help open up McCollum as a leverage play. Plus, Nurk will certainly have a huge role in with a favorable matchup on a small. Nurk Alert.
Matchup Helps: Everyone
Matchup Hurts: The scorekeeper’s fingers from putting so many points on the board
