We have another night with some heavy back-to-back action. Everything was going fairly smooth on avoiding the surprise news, but Tuesday had Brook Lopez suddenly get ruled out right before tip, and Jimmy Butler’s ankle soreness kept him out of a back-to-back set. Hopefully, this doesn’t become a trend after the NBA set its guidelines.
Secondly, writing matchups every day is brand new to me, so I’m going to experiment with some formats on what works best for everyone. I think this one really came out great, but we’re always open to feedback (feel free to @ me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher if you have positive or negative feedback, or something you think NBA Matchups is missing; don’t worry if it’s harsh, I touted Marquese in his second season, so I have thick skin on criticism). I added way more rotation notes not just on subs, but also some internal stuff like usage or team trends. Each game also has three interesting stats, trends or quotes about a player or group of players that will be more about the opponent, as well.
Memphis Grizzlies (110.3) vs. Utah Jazz (114.3), 2:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Grizzlies 7th, Jazz 26th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Grizzlies 4th, Jazz 12th
Grizzlies expected starters: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, Jonas Valanciunas
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Injury news: Tyus Jones (knee) remains out, Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) is out for the season, Nigel Williams-Goss (ankle) is out.
Grizzlies rotation notes: Clarke had an 11-minute stint when Jonas Valanciunas had foul trouble in the Disney opener, and Clarke has 262 minutes next to JV on the year (12/10/2 per 36) and 14 minutes next to him in the bubble, Grayson Allen has 26 minutes without Ja in Orlando with 21 points scored in that time (16 points in 54 minutes with him), 26 minutes of De’Anthony Melton, Brooks and Morant in bubble (236 on season), Melton has really struggled lately, Ja is third in the bubble for drives per game and third in potential assists.
Jazz rotation notes: Juwan Morgan saw first-half minutes due to foul trouble from Royce, Emmanuel Mudiay saw just five first-half minutes in the last game (8 and 9 in first two), Joe Ingles‘ touch time is down 22% in the bubble compared to before (29% down per minute), Conley’s touch time is up 18%, Mitchell down 9.6%.
*Brandon Clarke is a 20 and nine guy per 36 with Ja Morant and without JJJ this season (240 minutes), will likely have an undersized Royce O’Neale on him.
*Jazz have allowed bubble-high 11.0 steals per game (21st on season), Grizzlies are allowing 35.3 free throws per game in the bubble (third), Jazz starters have the second-best D rating among lineups with 20-plus minutes (Raptors way ahead).
*Grizzlies allow the second-most drives per game and the Jazz have the most drives per game this season (highest drives per game in the bubble, up three per game).
Matchup Helps: Ja Morant, Mike Conley, Brandon Clarke, Donovan Mitchell
Matchup Hurts: Jonas Valanciunas
Philadelphia 76ers (121) vs. Washington Wizards (110.5), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): 76ers 25th, Wizards 4th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): 76ers 10th, Wizards 7th
76ers expected starters: Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid
Wizards expected starters: Ish Smith, Troy Brown, Isaac Bonga, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant
Injury news: Glenn Robinson III (hip) is doubtful, Mike Scott (knee) is out, Garrison Mathews (NWT) remains out.
76ers rotation notes: Shake back up to 26 minutes after foul trouble in opener, Shake only scores 5.3 points per 36 in his 25 minutes next to Ben in bubble (21.3 in 20 without), Ben scoring and rebounding at an almost identical rate with and without Embiid, Embiid at stupid 45/18/7 line per 36 without Ben in 27 bubble minutes, 76ers defense has been destroyed in the fourth in last two (178.0 D rating!!!).
Wizards rotation notes: Ish and Napier overlap has dropped over three games to just two in last game (five two games ago, six in first).
*Small sample size here, but Joel Embiid put up 42 and 25 per 36 in his 31 minutes vs. Thomas Bryant in the last two seasons (all 2018-19); three starting centers have averaged 21.0 points, 12 boards and 2.6 blocks against the Wizards. Embiid also at 15 post-ups per game and leads bubble in usage rate at 35.5 (min. 20 minutes per game).
*Small-ball fours have shredded the 76ers in the last two games (T.J. Warren for 53, DeMar DeRozan 30), and Rui Hachimura dropped 27 points in 42.5 minutes against 76ers back in December and that was with Bradley Beal.
*Coach Scott Brooks said Troy Brown could start at PG before the season is over, and Brooks has also said Brown has to do more on both ends. This is a Troy Brown Jr. fan site. 76ers also have the worst defensive rating in the bubble (123.0) and Shake Milton has been getting smoked. It actually wasn’t just because of T.J. Warren, and the Spurs actually put up a better offensive rating against the 76ers than the Pacers did.
Matchup Helps: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, Joel Embiid again for emphasis
Matchup Hurts: Thomas Bryant
Denver Nuggets (B2B) vs. San Antonio Spurs, 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Nuggets 27th, Spurs 15th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Nuggets 22nd, Spurs 13th
Nuggets expected starters: Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic (note: very good chance Jerami Grant starts over Millsap for DeMar)
Spurs expected starters: Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl
Injury news: Will Barton (knee) and Gary Harris (hip) are out again, Jamal Murray (hamstring) is questionable again, Bryn Forbes (quad) is out again, Marco Belinelli (foot) is probable for this one.
Nuggets rotation notes: MPJ was on Luguentz Dort the most in last one (probably on LW4), 11 minutes of Mason Plumlee with Jokic in two games, 16 and 17 minutes of Jerami Grant and Millsap in the last two games.
Spurs rotation notes: Spurs starters are third-best lineup in O rating at 136.2 (min. 20 minutes), starters have been the same in every game with fairly similar rotations with the exception of Keldon Johnson subbing for different guys more often.
*Spurs are allowing the most makes and takes at the rim in the bubble, Nikola Jokic leads the NBA in touches and frontcourt touches, and he’s seen both of those stats go up significantly (121 touches and 66.5 in bubble, 97.6 and 57.8 before).
*Coach Gregg Popovich really praised Keldon Johnson. “He’s a monster competitor. Learning more every day. He’s getting confidence in his shooting. He drives it well. Hits the boards. Plays hard on ‘D.’ He’s a fine young player.” Pop also said Drew Eubanks has been doing a “great job” in his role, Dejounte Murray said “he’s legit” and Patty Mills said “the biggest thing is honestly seeing these young guys and the opportunity that they’ve had to be able to take it with both hands and really grow.” Pop also said he wants his team to play with pace and they are third in the bubble (eighth on offense).
*After Michael Porter Jr. sent Mike Malone three texts that basically asked him to trust him, Malone answered “I’m going to stick with you.” He went off for 37 on Monday, and he gets a great matchup against a porous Spurs defense right now.
Matchup Helps: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Dejounte Murray, Drew Eubanks, Jerami Grant
Matchup Hurts: Jakob Poeltl, Paul Millsap
Oklahoma City Thunder (105.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (112, B2B), 6:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Thunder 16th, Lakers 10th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Thunder 29th, Lakers 20th
Thunder expected starters: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Injury news: Terrance Ferguson (leg) is out, Mike Muscala (concussion) is out, Dennis Schroder (personal) is out, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Anthony Davis (eye) is probable.
Thunder rotation notes: OKC starters running at the second-slowest pace in bubble (min. 20 minutes, Pacers starters), Hamidou Diallo got some PG minutes in the last one (SGA foul trouble), Gallo only at 19 and 24 minutes in regulation in the last two (19 had garbage time).
Lakers rotation notes: Lakers starting lineup has worst O rating in the bubble at 77.1 and second worst RB% (min. 20 minutes), AD at 56.9% of his minutes at center in the bubble (39% before), Dion Waiters’ role looks to be secure in the second unit, beware of the back-to-back set.
*Key perimeter players have lit up the Lakers in each of their first three games (Mitchell 33, Conley 24, Lowry 33, George 30, Leonard 28), but they have the fourth-best defense against PNR ballhandlers per possession.
*Billy Donovan has put Steve Adams on AD the most in the two games they both played with AD getting high usage and strong efficiency against him, AD coming off his second-highest usage rate of the season among his games with 30-plus minutes this season (38.7, had season-low 12.8 vs. Raptors on Saturday).
*LeBron James hasn’t made a mid-range shot in Orlando yet, his shot distribution has a higher percentage at the rim. He really struggled against a big-bodied forward in OG Anunoby and gets another matchup against a tank in Luguentz Dort. It’s LeBron, though.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, Luguentz Dort (volume), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Matchup Hurts: Steven Adams, Chris Paul
Toronto Raptors (115) vs. Orlando Magic (108.5, B2B), 8:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Raptors 9th, Magic 24th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Raptors 27th, Magic 16th
Raptors expected starters: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol
Magic expected starters: D.J. Augustin, Evan Fournier, James Ennis, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic (note: I have stubbornly put Markelle Fultz as an expected starter in previous games, and still kind of think he starts here)
Injury news: Oshae Brissett (knee) and Pat McCaw are out, the Magic injury report won’t be out until the afternoon, but Michael Carter-Williams is likely out.
Raptors rotation notes: Fred VanVleet leads the bubble in regulation minutes played per game at a ridiculous 41.4, Nurse has run a nine-man rotation in each of the last two (Terence Davis II and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson barely in there), Norman Powell has still been able to get 16.2 first-half minutes per game in the last two.
Magic rotation notes: Markelle Fultz had his bubble-high eight minutes in a stint on Tuesday, Clifford finally cut his rotation down to nine guys in the second half on Tuesday (starters listed above, Fultz, Terrence Ross, Wes Iwundu, Khem Birch).
*The Raptors starting unit has a bubble-best 61.3 defensive rating among lineups with 20 minutes (by a mile with Jazz starters at 87.5), they’re also allowing teams to shoot just 33.3% on drives. Their entire team ranks first in bubble defensive rating at 96.1 (nobody close, Lakers 102.3).
*Nikola Vucevic has roasted Serge in the past and after lighting him up back in 2018 he said he liked the matchup going in because of his size advantage on Serge. He’ll see a lot of Marc Gasol here, and it may not go well for him while there may not be as many minutes for Serge either.
*Most of the key Raptors struggled with efficiency against the Magic with the exception of Norman Powell at 17.3 points per game over three contests (65.6 TS%).
Matchup Helps: Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell
Matchup Hurts: Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Serge Ibaka
Brooklyn Nets (B2B) vs. Boston Celtics (B2B), 9:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Nets 12th, Celtics 18th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Nets 11th, Celtics 18th
Nets expected starters: Tyler Johnson, Caris LeVert, Garrett Temple, Lance Thomas, Jarrett Allen (note: Harris having a back and hammy issue makes me think he’s the most questionable one, team beat writer says someone should be back, would also assume Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot would)
Celtics expected starters: Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Gordon Hayward, Daniel Theis
Injury news: Jamal Crawford (hamstring) presumably is out, we’ll have to wait on Caris LeVert (quad), Joe Harris (back, hamstring) and Jarrett Allen after missing Tuesday, and Kemba Walker (knee) has been ruled out.
Nets rotation notes: Jeremiah Martin subbed in for Jamal Crawford after injury (Martin looked pretty good), Nets ran Tyler Johnson and Chris Chiozza together for 10 minutes (3 in second game, 0 in first), Jarrett Allen had a season-high 38 minutes in regulation on Sunday.
Celtics rotation notes: Jaylen Brown has a 26.0 usage rate in the bubble (24.5% before) and gets a 2.3 usage rate boost without Kemba on the floor this season (3.5% in bubble games), Marcus Smart has a 17/4/6 per-36 line without Kemba with more steals.
*In February when Kemba was banged up, Jayson Tatum put up a per-36 line of 31/8/3 on a 31.6 usage rate and a 62.5 TS% in 343 minutes without him.
*Caris LeVert is top three in usage rate for regular-season bubble games and in preseason bubble games (min. 20 minutes per game), LeVert up to 17.5 drives per game in the bubble and ranks fourth in points off drives per game in bubble at 13.0 (7.2 before bubble; Luka, Westbrook, Ja). Caris also dropped his 51-point game against the Celtics.
*The Nets allow the most points to PNR ball-handlers in the league, and are vulnerable in the paint.
Matchup Helps: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Caris LeVert (assuming he goes, of course)
Matchup Hurts: Tyler Johnson, Chris Chiozza
