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The 2024 PGA season is here. Get the industry’s best projections

It’s another six-game slate, but the main slates have been pushed back. Woohoo! Although, the first game of the day is very attractive and a lot of people may be itching to get some Zion DFS action and actually feel like he can get up there in minutes.

 

New Orleans Pelicans (B2B, 119) vs. Sacramento Kings (B2B, 114.5), 1:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Pelicans 3rd, Kings 17th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Pelicans 14th, Kings 28th
Pelicans expected starters: Lonzo Ball, Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Derrick Favors
Kings expected starters: De’Aaron Fox, Cory Joseph, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes (note: it could be Nemanja Bjelica, but going small works here and that old lineup gets crushed so far)

Injury news: None.

Pelicans rotation notes: Alvin Gentry said the Pelicans will address the back-to-back situation after the game with the Kings (meaning should all be good here), Gentry said he likes to play Josh Hart consecutive minutes “more than anyone” and called him “a big hero” after beating the Grizzlies, Hart leads the league in TS% (84.5 TS%, min. 20 mpg).

Kings rotation notes: Walton said CoJo “did a perfect job” in his role against the Mavs, said he’ll re-evaluate starting lineups per matchup, Walton said the Kings were taking too many jumpers against the Mavs, Kings starting unit from first two games is worst lineup in the bubble (-44.9 net rating, 134.0 D, min. 20 minutes), Buddy Hield leading the bubble in 3PA per minute (min. 50 total minutes).

*In limited minutes, Zion Williamson leads Disney in usage rate at 36.8 (min. 10 minutes per game), and he saw 10 minutes in the fourth quarter on Monday (two stints). The Kings really don’t have anyone who can guard him and he really has no interest in passing. Among players with his playing time or more, only three other players have a higher passes received-to-passes made in the bubble. The Kings interior defense has been bad all year and it’s even worse now.

*The Kings had the worst defense in the bubble going into Wednesday night before the Nets got railroaded. The really don’t have capable defenders at all levels, and it’ll have to be either Bogdan Bogdanovic on Brandon Ingram, a mismatch on Zion, or Jrue will have some easier matchups. Really anyone is a go here.

*The Pelicans are one of the worst defenses on driving perimeter players, and based on Walton’s comments about wanting to cut down on shots, that could get Fox to play downhill a whole lot in an up-tempo game (both teams in upper half for bubble pace). 

Matchup Helps: Zion Williamson, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, Richaun Holmes
Matchup Hurts: 
Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield

 

Miami Heat (106.5) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (115.5), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Heat 23rd, Bucks 1st
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Heat 25th, Bucks 8th
Heat expected starters: Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo
Bucks expected starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wes Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez (?)

Injury news: Jimmy Butler (foot) is out, Goran Dragic (ankle) is questionable, Wes Matthews is off the injury report, Brook Lopez is not on the injury report (again).

Heat rotation notes: Spo said he needs Duncan Robinson to be assertive and hunt for open looks, Bam was bringing the ball up after makes on Tuesday, Spo will have to add Meyers Leonard or Solomon Hill as his last rotation guy in this matchup.

Bucks rotation notes: Bucks starters leading bubble lineups with a 142.0 O rating (min. 20 minutes), Budenholzer is still a sub machine.

*Giannis is leading Disney in FD points per minute at 2.04, points per minute, rebounds per minute, and is top five in assists per minute. GA only had a 45.3 TS% in his 55 minutes when Bam was on the floor (-8.4 net rating). A close game might be more helpful than the matchup.

* Kendrick Nunn has a per-36 line of 20/3/6 in his 403 minutes without Jimmy and Goran. He should have some open shots and the Heat will need more perimeter scoring with how difficult it is to score inside against them.

* Tyler Herro has a 24.9 usage rate when he’s not next to Dragic and Butler. Herro played PG in the scrimmages when Kendrick Nunn was not ready to play and he gets to play the team from his hometown.

* Bam Adebayo puts up a 19/12/7 line per 36 when Jimmy is off the court this season, and a 17.4/11/8 line when he’s not next to Jimmy and Dragic.

Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo (might be a close game), Khris Middleton, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson
Matchup Hurts: 
Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk (feel free to play him because he’s on fire, though)

 

Indiana Pacers (116) vs. Phoenix Suns (113.5), 4:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Pacers 20th, Suns 14th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Pacers 26th, Suns 6th
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Deandre Ayton

Injury news: Malcolm Brogdon (neck) is questionable for the same injury that kept him out Saturday after playing in two games, Goga Bitadze (knee) is questionable, Aron Baynes (knee) is out, Elie Okobo (ankle) is out, and Kelly Oubre (knee) is doubtful.

Pacers rotation notes: Pacers starters are the slowest lineup in the bubble (min. 20 minutes), lineup with Justin Holiday for Oladipo is the second slowest, Goga returning could squeeze JaKarr Sampson and/or Doug McDermott a bit.

Suns rotation notes: Monty Williams said the Suns may work in more grab-and-go movement off boards, Dario Saric has 22 minutes at center in the bubble (23 and 13 per 36, 111.4 pace).

* Devin Booker does not want to pass it right now and has almost twice as many passes received as passes made in the bubble (1.86 ratio, tops among 158 qualifiers), and when he does he has 0.38 potential assists per pass in the bubble (second behind Westbrook). The Pacers haven’t really faced anyone quite like Booker in the bubble yet, and he may get a tougher challenge against Aaron Holiday. Still, his attractive role and skill level can overcome any matchup.

* T.J. Warren revenge game? He’s leading the bubble at 39.7 points per game at a stupid 77.0 TS% with his 50 jumpers at 76.0 eFG% (53 eFG% before bubble), Warren also has a stupid 84.7 eFG% on his 36 shots when he’s open. This all screams unsustainable, but you have to love a revenge game narrative against a team that has given up some big scoring games to perimeter players. Warren usage rate against the Suns this season was also a top-five output for him (30.6).

Matchup Helps: T.J. Warren, Devin Booker, Aaron Holiday, Myles Turner
Matchup Hurts: 
Deandre Ayton

 

LA Clippers (117.8) vs. Dallas Mavericks (113.8), 6:30 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Clippers 5th, Mavericks 22nd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Clippers 19th, Mavericks 9th
Clippers expected starters: Reggie Jackson, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Mavericks expected starters: Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Justin Jackson, Kristaps Porzingis (note: Guessing here, but you’d think no way it’s Barea again, so hard to trust Delon Wright)

Injury news: Montrezl Harrell (personal) and Patrick Beverley (calf) are out, and Seth Curry (leg) is doubtful again after missing Tuesday.

Clippers rotation notes: Nine-man rotation in the second half against the Suns, Lou-Will only played 9.1 minutes in the second half even without Beverley, Jackson only had three possessions used on 15 second-half minutes.

Mavericks rotation notes: Rick Carlisle said he will look at everybody medically and not take any chances down the stretch because they are almost a lock for the No. 7 seed, rotation was a mess on Tuesday.

* Luka Doncic is an absolute freak in ball domination. Sure, OT frames have helped, but still he has 22.7 points off drives per game in the bubble, which is more than eight entire teams average per game. He has 11.7 minutes of time with the ball in his hands (league leader before was Trae Young at 9.1). He might have Kawhi on him, but it might not even matter at this point. 

* Kawhi Leonard has smashed on the Mavs with a 32/10/3 line in two games (55.4 FD, PG didn’t play in one). The Mavs have been getting torched by perimeter players in the bubble with Harden (49), Westbrook (31), Booker and De’Aaron Fox (28) all fared well against them. Doc Rivers may try to hold back a bit here with the Clippers likely getting a matchup with these Mavs in the playoffs.

* Dorian Finney-Smith is likely looking at heavy minutes again and played 37 minutes against the Clippers in their last game against them (41 in OT game on Tuesday). You would think the Mavericks are not starting J.J. Barea or Trey Burke against Paul George, so there could be some Delon Wright action or maybe Justin Jackson or Maxi Kleber.

Matchup Helps: Paul George, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis
Matchup Hurts:
Ivica Zubac
Note: Still love Luka, just not a great matchup

 

Portland Trail Blazers (116.8) vs. Denver Nuggets (B2B, 112.8), 8:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Blazers 19th, Nuggets 27th
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Blazers 3rd, Nuggets 22nd
Blazers expected starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic
Nuggets expected starters: Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic

Injury news: The Nuggets didn’t file their injury report yet, but presumably Will Barton (knee) and Gary Harris (hip) are out, Jamal Murray (hamstring) is likely questionable

Blazers rotation notes: Blazers starters are running at the third-slowest pace in the bubble (min. 20 minutes, 108.7; Trent for Collins is second-fastest lineup), Anfernee Simons took Mario Hezonja’s rotation spot in a big win vs. Rockets.

Nuggets rotation notes: MPJ hit the 36-minute mark again in two monster games and he’s typically played more in the second half of back-to-back sets in the past (note: Unlikely he gets to 36-39, but Nuggets haven’t managed him to this point), Monte Morris with 20 second-half minutes, Grant saw 19 second-half minutes to Millsap’s five, 13 Monte-Dozier minutes on Wednesday.

*While Malone said he trusted Michael Porter Jr. on the day of his 37-point explosion, before Wednesday’s 30-15 line he didn’t want to totally commit to him and the Nuggets “we’re just taking it one game at a time.” However, after the game, Malone called MPJ and Jokic “two cornerstones of our franchise.” The Blazers have given up some big lines to forwards with Jayson Tatum’s Sunday explosion as the headline, and MPJ should have every chance to smash again. He was also not managed in previous back-to-back sets in his career, but he wasn’t playing much.

*Among Blazers to play in all three Disney games, Gary Trent Jr. leads the team in net rating and defensive rating. He also leads the whole team in TS% at 79.2, and Stotts said he “picked up where he left off” during July practices, and Trent for Collins with the other starters has a +8.9 net rating (starters at -10.8, horrible 130.0 D rating).

*NURKIC REVENGE GAME OH MY GOD WHAT IS GOING ON AND DID YOU HEAR WHAT MPJ SAID LAST WEEK? OK, so Nurk is smashing right now at 22.0 points, 12.3 boards, 4.3 dimes, 1.7 steals and 3.3 blocks at Disney. He’s been a top-five player per minute on FD (min. 20 mpg). In seven games vs. Denver in 28.3 minutes, he averages 18.3 points, 10.1 boards and 1.4 dimes, and he wasn’t playing like he is now. Feel free to go Warren and Nurk for the revenge stack.

Matchup Helps: Michael Porter Jr., Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Paul Millsap
Matchup Hurts: Carmelo Anthony

 

Los Angeles Lakers (B2B, 114.8) vs. Houston Rockets (112.8), 9:00 PM ET
Offensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 10th, Rockets 2nd
Defensive pace on season (of 30): Lakers 20th, Rockets 21st
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Rockets expected starters: Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Danuel House, Robert Covington, P.J. Tucker

Injury news: Russell Westbrook (quad) is questionable, Eric Gordon (ankle) is out, and Dwight Howard will likely be on the injury report (LeBron James and Anthony Davis may be listed as probable later today).

Lakers rotation notes: Vogel said he won’t overdo it on minutes in back-to-back set (this was said before Wednesday’s blowout to the Thunder), blowout on Wednesday kept LeBron to 30 minutes and AD at just 29, Markieff Morris and J.R. Smith took on some extra minutes to offset loss of Dwight Howard.

Rockets rotation notes: Jeff Green saw 13 minutes of overlap with P.J. Tucker vs. POR and 14 against the Bucks (six in first game), RoCo has 9.0 open attempts from deep per game in the bubble, Russell Westbrook is averaging 0.4 potential assists per pass in the bubble (ranks first among players with 50-plus minutes, Harden also in the top eight), Jeff Green and P.J. Tucker are tied for the lead in wide-open 3PA per game at 6.0 (Olynyk, Jaren Jackson Jr.), Ben McLemore would likely start if no Russ.

*Coach Mike D’Antoni really talked up playing faster after the loss to the Blazers. He talked about getting faster to limit the double teams from getting on Harden, he said the team wasn’t running after made baskets, and said he didn’t know why (he said maybe heavy legs, lack of energy).

*The Rockets put P.J. Tucker on AD the most in the last game, and AD went for 32/13/3 with three steals and three blocks. The Rockets starters have the worst rebounding rate in the bubble, and they’ve allowed three 55-point efforts to PF/C on FD so far in the bubble (KP, Giannis, Nurkic). AD might be the focus with RoCo likely guarding LeBron.

*In 160 minutes without a traditional center and without Russ on the floor, James Harden has a per-36 line of 43/8/7 with 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 5.6 treys on a 43.4 usage rate. He’s also shooting 85.7% on his drives in the bubble (4.7 shots per game). The Lakers were using Avery Bradley on Harden in the previous matchup, too. He’s an obvious play without Russ, but he should smash regardless.

Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, James Harden
Matchup Hurts: Robert Covington