It’s only a five-game slate, but we sure do have a lot of injuries today. The injury report has 15 open tags (probable, questionable, doubtful) on it, so late swapping should be firmly in your mind when you start putting them together.
UPDATE: Usually don’t add updates, but Kawhi Leonard not playing here is huge for Damian Lillard, and he has been taken off as a “Matchup Hurts” guy. He’s headed for big minutes, which is hard to say for a lot of players. Love him today.
LA Clippers (-4.5, B2B) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (B2B)
Team Totals: Clippers 119, Blazers 115
Season pace: Clippers 8th, Blazers 12th
Clippers expected starters: Landry Shamet, Paul George, Rodney McGruder, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac
Blazers expected starters: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Gary Trent Jr., Carmelo Anthony, Jusuf Nurkic
Injury news: Patrick Beverley (calf) and Montrezl Harrell (personal) are out, and Hassan Whiteside (hip) is doubtful.
Clippers rotation notes: Doc Rivers called Zubac’s game vs. Dallas “phenomenal” and said it has helped his confidence, Lou Williams’ minutes didn’t increase in his second game.
Blazers rotation notes: No Whiteside would likely mean Zach Collins comes off the bench, the Blazers are clearly going for the 8-9 seed with Dame and CJ at 42 minutes a night to lead the league, Stotts was running airtight rotations before the bubble with heavy minutes of starters together (back with Ariza).
* Zach Collins is very productive as a five. We obviously don’t have much of a sample this year with his injury, but back in 2018-19 Collins put up a per-36 line as a five of 14.8 points, 8.3 boards, 1.8 dimes, 1.4 steals and 3.2 blocks (156-minute sample). He should have minutes against an undersized JaMychal Green with some overlap next to Nurk, too.
* Gary Trent Jr. is been one of the stars of the bubble. Among 122 players with 24-plus minutes per game, GTJ ranks first in TS% at 82.5 TS%, The Blazers will absolutely need wing defenders against Paul George and Kawhi, so he’s setting up as a huge volume play.
*The Clippers really cut down on Luka dominating and getting downhill, almost cutting his drives per game in the bubble in half. Only Devin Booker has turned in a big game against the Clippers as a perimeter player (35, Luka didn’t hit value). They’ll likely be really locking in on Dame, who really struggled against the Clippers this year at just 19.0 points per game in two contests. Dame is second in the bubble at 19.3 potential assists, so he might be looking to dish more.
Matchup Helps: Ivica Zubac, Gary Trent Jr., Zach Collins
Matchup Hurts: Nobody now that Kawhi is out
Utah Jazz (-1, B2B) vs. Denver Nuggets
Pace rank: Jazz 22nd, Nuggets 29th
Jazz expected starters: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale, Rudy Gobert
Nuggets expected starters: Monte Morris, Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Injury news: Jamal Murray (hamstring) is questionable again, Troy Daniels (hip) is questionable, Gary Harris (hip) is out, and Will Barton (knee) is out.
Jazz rotation notes: Nothing really going on here after they rested their guys except Ingles (to keep his Ironman streak alive).
Nuggets rotation notes: Malone has said all along he is going to prioritize health over seeding and we’re really seeing it even more with Nikola Jokic’s minutes getting cut.
* The Nuggets defense has been getting roasted with the worst defensive rating in the bubble (121.3), and they’ve been particularly bad against teams that are led by scoring guards (133.0 vs. Blazers, 124.8 vs. Spurs). Mike Conley surprisingly has more touch time per minute over Donovan Mitchell in the bubble with Joe Ingles’ time down. Conley has also improved his FG% off drives by 11% in the bubble compared to before. Both Conley and Donny could be busy.
* Mike Malone benching his guys in a close game for the likes of Keita Bates-Diop and others is a big wakeup call here for what could be a really messy rotation, and he talked about it after the loss. “They’re playing for their playoff lives with all their starters in and we’ve got guys who haven’t played that many minutes in the NBA giving them all they can handle…you cant ask for guys to play any harder than they did in the second half.”
* Michael Porter Jr. might still be safe and it’s almost like he’s showcasing him to the league. After calling him a cornerstone with Jokic two games ago, Malone had more to say after the Blazers tried to limit him with some different coverages. “Yeah, they shadowed him, and Mike had 27 and 12,” he said. There’s risk here, but he is still an option.
* File this away in the future, or maybe even today. Coach Quin Snyder said he wants Rudy Gobert “to be fresh” for the playoffs.
Matchup Helps: Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson
Matchup Hurts: Possibly your head if you rely too heavily on Malone right now
Los Angeles Lakers (-8) vs. Indiana Pacers
Pace rank: Lakers 11th, Pacers 24th
Lakers expected starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James (Q), Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee (note: Kyle Kuzma also a very strong bet to start if LeBron can’t go or Vogel may want to go small again as mentioned below)
Pacers expected starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Aaron Holiday, Victor Oladipo, T.J. Warren, Myles Turner
Injury news: LeBron James (groin) is questionable, Alex Caruso (neck) is questionable, Anthony Davis (ankle) is probable, Dwight Howard (knee) is probable, Markieff Morris (hip) is probable, Myles Turner (ankle) is questionable, T.J. Warren (foot) is questionable, and Doug McDermott (knee) is questionable
Lakers rotation notes: Vogel said JaVale was a DNP-CD against the Rockets, even without the Matchup factor Vogel said the Lakers’ size can be an advantage against floor-spacing teams, he “wanted to see what a small lineup looked like to start with, with Kuz in there” against Houston and may not play both centers when AD starts at the five, Dion Waiters was PG2 on Thursday.
Pacers rotation notes: Lots of injuries here: if Myles can’t go it would be Goga Bitadze and JaKarr Sampson splitting C minutes, if Warren sits it should up Justin Holiday’s minutes with more usage to go around and we might see more Edmond Sumner, if no McBuckets and all of those guys the Pacers may have to look at Alize Johnson.
*Tough matchup here, but Malcolm Brogdon has really played like a stud, high-volume player. He’s near the top 10 in touch time per minute and he’s eighth in total touch time despite ranking 28th in minutes per game.
*Tough to get a read on the Pacers injuries here, but Brogdon did say that the Pacers were “a little bit tired” and it’s “a lot of games in a short number of days.” McMillan also said there was more focus on the defensive end. McDermott may have just got bumped from the rotation because of his poor play with an “injury” to keep him out (no treys in bubble). These injuries sound minor, so it might just be a chance to get guys healthy after their 3-0 start and loss to Phoenix.
*The Lakers are a bit of a tougher. We know LeBron was listed with that groin issue in every game and he was probable before getting the back-to-back off. The Lakers offense is in total disarray and Vogel has talked a lot about chemistry, so it does make sense to get LeBron out there to try to get them going. However, if the Pacers rest guys, maybe the Lakers are more inclined to do so as well? We’re probably getting a game-time call, and this may be a situation you want to avoid.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, Aaron Holiday, Malcolm Brogdon
Matchup Hurts: Myles Turner
Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat (-2.5)
Pace rank: Suns 9th, Heat 27th
Suns expected starters: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton
Heat expected starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo
Injury news: Kendrick Nunn (personal) and Jimmy Butler (foot) will not play in this one, Goran Dragic (ankle) is questionable, Gabe Vincent (knee) is probable, Aron Baynes (knee) is out, Elie Okobo (ankle) will not play, and Kelly Oubre (knee) is doubtful.
Suns rotation notes: Booker said he likes the first unit with Cam Johnson and Deandre Ayton with it being a “pick your poison” scenario for defenses, Cam Payne has run away with the backup PG job.
Heat rotation notes: Bam said it has taken him a while to recover from COVID-19, Heat may have to extend Herro’s minutes with really only one other ball-handler if no Goran (Vincent), Bam Adebayo will be handling the rock a lot.
* Mikal Bridges’ defense has been great at times, and he’s had some really tough assignments on Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard and T.J. Warren. The Suns are normally a smash spot for ball-handlers as one of the worst PNR defenses, they are the worst defense on points per drive and they’re third-worst in points off drives per game.
*The Heat going with the Jae Crowder and Kelly Olynyk frontcourt against the Bucks suggests that PF/C duo should hold in this matchup, which means Solomon Hill will be in over Meyers Leonard again.
*The Heat really don’t have much of a sample with Herro and Bam Adebayo out there together without their other ball-handlers. In 31 minutes with Herro and without the other ball-handlers on the injury report, Bam has a ridiculous 17/14/12 line. Herro is also really close with fellow Kentucky guy Devin Booker. He might try to be a show pony.
Matchup Helps: Devin Booker, Ricky Rubio, Tyler Herro
Matchup Hurts: Deandre Ayton
Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) vs Dallas Mavericks
Pace rank: Bucks 1st, Mavericks 18th
Bucks expected starters: Eric Bledsoe, Wes Matthews, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
Mavericks expected starters: Luka Doncic, Seth Curry (Q), Tim Hardaway Jr., Maxi Kleber, Kristaps Porzingis (note: Curry is Q, but the Mavs were hopeful he was going to play Thursday, they could sit him again)
Injury news: Seth Curry (leg) is doubtful and Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) is questionable.
Bucks rotation notes: Coach Mike Budenholzer kept his word that he went with a normal rotation.
Mavericks rotation notes: Carlisle has said he won’t take chances medically with his guys, Finney-Smith said his hip has been bothering him, Boban started the last game and didn’t make it back in after his first sub, Carlisle has been all over the place with rotations since Curry went down.
* Luka Doncic is a drive machine right now at a ridiculous 29.8 per game in the bubble and he was at almost 23 points per game off drives before Thursday, but the Clippers really slowed him down with only eight points off drives. He gets another really bad matchup here with the Bucks as the toughest defense in the NBA in points per drive. The Bucks also have the best PNR defense among bubble teams and protect the rim better than anyone in the league with nobody even close. The Clippers said they gameplanned for Luka to make it tough on him, and yet Luka still put up a 29/3/6 line.
*The Mavs possibly not having Dorian Finney-Smith would be huge for Giannis. He’s also been a major force when he’s getting downhill in the bubble with his 78.9% off drives (only Harden and DeRozan higher). Giannis went scorched earth against the Mavs back in December with a 48/14/4 line in just 34 minutes. His assists and defensive stats haven’t been there yet. He should smash. The Mavs would really have to lean on Maxi Kleber here sans DFS.
*The Bucks are a terrible matchup for most big men with the aforementioned defense at the rim, and their percentage of paint points via drives is the highest in the league (meaning they do not allow bigs to get buckets near the basket). However, Kristaps Porzingis isn’t really that kind of five anymore. In the bubble, a whopping 72.3% of his shots have been jumpers. Sure, it’s not a good matchup overall, but it’s not as bad as the DvP stats may suggest.
Matchup Helps: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Maxi Kleber
Matchup Hurts: Luka Doncic
Note: Luka is probably going to be inefficient, but pace and opportunity will likely be there.
